Tag: Weather News

Kukumseri Records Himachal’s Lowest Temperature at -0.4°C as Cold Wave Intensifies

Kukumseri in Himachal Pradesh’s tribal district of Lahaul-Spiti recorded the state’s lowest minimum temperature at -0.4°C on Monday. Snowfall in higher reaches and mountain peaks triggered a sharp drop in temperatures across the hill state. Keylong registered a minimum of 0.7°C, while Tabo recorded 1.4°C.

According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), minimum temperatures fell by 2-5°C at several stations over the past 24 hours. Many locations stayed 2-4°C below normal. Shimla, Bhuntar, Nahan, Kangra, Keylong, Manali, and Palampur were among the places that logged below-normal readings.

IMD officials expect minimum temperatures to rise by 2-3°C across many parts of the state over the next 48 hours. They are then likely to fall again by 2-4°C over the following two to three days. Maximum temperatures are also projected to climb appreciably by 3-6°C in the next 48 hours before declining by 2-5°C thereafter.

Rain and Snowfall Forecast

The IMD has forecast rain or snowfall in several parts of Himachal Pradesh until October 17. Light to moderate precipitation is likely at a few places on October 13. Many places are expected to receive light to moderate rain or snow on October 14 and 15.

A yellow alert for thunderstorms and lightning has been issued for October 13 in Chamba, Kangra, Kullu, Mandi, and Shimla. Similar alerts cover Una, Bilaspur, Kangra, Kullu, Mandi, and Shimla on October 14, and a wider set of districts including Una, Bilaspur, Hamirpur, Chamba, Kangra, Kullu, Mandi, Shimla, Solan, and Sirmaur on October 15.

On Monday, average maximum temperatures across the state remained normal after a day of below-normal readings at most stations. Una was the hottest, recording 32.2°C. Shimla logged 21.4°C, while Dharamshala and Manali recorded 26°C and 20.2°C respectively. The combination of recent snowfall and shifting weather patterns is keeping temperatures volatile across the state.

India Records Weakest Monsoon in Over a Decade as El Niño Drives Drought Conditions

India faced its weakest monsoon in nearly two decades this year. Several states reported drought conditions. The southwest monsoon ended 13% below the long-period average as the El Niño impact continued to grow. As a result, rainfall shortfalls affected crops, water levels, and agricultural planning across multiple regions.

El Niño and Global Risks

El Niño can bring drought to some regions and severe flooding to others. In some cases, both occur. These extremes damage crops, livestock, and infrastructure. Consequently, food production falls and prices rise. Food becomes less affordable, especially for smallholder farmers and pastoralists who rely on rainfall. When combined with existing pressures such as conflict, these climate shocks can quickly increase hunger, the World Food Program warned in a recent analysis. According to the World Meteorological Organization, El Niño conditions are expected to strengthen through 2026 and continue into 2027. The ongoing super El Niño may become the strongest on record since 1950. Meteorologist Ben Noll also noted that around 3 billion people worldwide could experience unusually high temperatures till the end of this year. He added that the record-breaking El Niño would peak higher because of the planet’s warming trend, with a global warming boost of around 0.65°C.

Monsoon Performance and Regional Impact

India recorded a 13% monsoon rainfall deficit. Rainfall stayed below normal in some regions, including South India and the northeastern states. However, central and northwest India received rainfall within the normal range, IMD scientist Shashikant said last week. Data from the weather department shows rainfall over the country between June and September reached 87% of its long-period average in 2026. Summer monsoon rainfall totalled 759.4 mm — the fourth lowest since 2001 and the 13th lowest since 1901. Therefore, the season ranks among the weakest in recent decades.

Adjusted Food Production Targets

The central government lowered its food production target in late September. It aimed to avoid water-intensive crops in areas that received low rainfall. Union Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan announced that crops such as pulses and oilseeds would be cultivated in such regions. Against the target of 362.60 million tonnes, production reached 376.56 million tonnes during 2025-26. In view of the El Niño situation, the production target has been fixed at 373.93 million tonnes for 2026-27, which includes a Rabi target of 177.72 million tonnes. The Agriculture Minister assured that there was no shortage of fertilisers for the ensuing Rabi season. There had reportedly been a 1% decrease in the area sown, with paddy seeing the biggest dip. Meanwhile, the area under pulses, oilseeds, and coarse cereals increased.

Drought Declarations Across States

Karnataka became the first state to declare drought conditions. It announced on August 27 that 101 taluks had been affected for the Kharif season. The tally hit 217 out of 240 taluks by October 2 as a Central government team visited to assess the damage. Deputy Chief Minister G Parameshwara said farmers faced acute drought, drinking water problems, and crop failure. Nearly Rs 46,000 crore of crop loss was estimated. Several other states also declared drought conditions. Maharashtra declared drought in 265 of its 358 talukas on September 25. Andhra Pradesh joined on October 2, declaring 388 mandals across 21 out of 28 districts as drought-affected. Telangana and Rajasthan governments are also assessing drought-hit areas.

Government Drought-Proofing Measures

The Indian government has run several schemes over the years for drought proofing, water conservation, and agricultural resilience. The VB-G RAM G Act replaced the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme earlier this year. A Central share of Rs 95,692.31 crore has been provided for the Viksit Bharat-Guarantee for Rozgar and Ajeevika Mission (Gramin) for FY27. It supports water security measures such as farm ponds, check dams, and tree plantations. Millions of water-conservation assets were also created under MGNREGA. More than 68,000 reservoirs have been constructed or rejuvenated under Mission Amrit Sarovar. Around 900,000 water-harvesting structures were created or rejuvenated under watershed programmes over the past 12 years. Under Jal Sanchay Jan Bhagidari, at least one million groundwater recharge and over 2.7 million artificial recharge structures have been created. The second phase launched in June 2025 has already exceeded targets.

Ongoing Water Stress

According to the India Drought Monitor, around 52.5% of the country was under dry or drought conditions by mid-September. India extracts around 247 billion cubic metres of groundwater every year, making it the world’s largest consumer. Agriculture accounts for up to 90% of all water used in India. Rice, wheat, and sugarcane take nearly 80% of irrigation water. The El Niño conditions prevalent throughout 2026 have worsened the water stress. As a result, the government has stepped in with adjusted targets and continued support measures. Overall, the weak monsoon highlights structural vulnerabilities that require sustained focus on water management and crop diversification.

Rice Prices Rise Sharply and Add Pressure on Household Budgets

Rice, the staple food for people of the State, has become costlier.
The increase places an additional financial burden on households already facing higher prices of essential commodities.

A 26 kg rice bag that cost Rs. 1,700 to Rs. 1,800 between March and August now sells for Rs. 2,200.
This marks a rise of nearly 25 to 30 percent in just two months.

Fine rice currently sells at Rs. 80 to Rs. 85 a kg.
If the trend continues, the price may reach Rs. 100 a kg.
Such a level would place the staple beyond the comfortable reach of many families.

The sharp rise has drawn attention to the role of rice millers.
Allegations have emerged that millers are forming a syndicate, holding stocks, and raising prices.
Critics say they are exploiting the supply situation to maximise profits.

The present situation has been aggravated by El Niño conditions.
Kharif yields are likely to fall because of reduced crop acreage and damage to the paddy crop.
However, the current shortage does not fully explain the steep rise in prices of stocks already held by millers.

A substantial quantity of rice now held by millers was procured before the present crop situation became clear.
These stocks are reportedly being released at higher prices.
The pattern has raised concerns over hoarding, artificial scarcity, and coordinated price increases.

K Satyanarayana of Penamaluru said he bought a 26 kg bag of Sona Masoori for Rs. 1,750 last month.
The same bag now costs Rs. 2,175.
He added that continued increases will make daily needs harder for ordinary families to manage.

S Srinivasa Rao of Vara Lakshmi Traders said millers have raised rates sharply.
He noted that millers cite rice exports and the impact of El Niño as reasons.
Traders say they struggle to explain the sudden jump to customers.

Vegetable prices have also climbed sharply and compounded the pressure.
Tomato, brinjal, green chilli, bitter gourd, and ridge gourd sell at more than Rs. 40 a kg even at Rythu Bazaars.
Open-market prices are nearly double in several places.
Onion prices have risen as well.

With vegetables, rice, onions, and other provisions becoming more expensive, ordinary families find it difficult to manage basic food requirements.
The cumulative impact is particularly severe for low- and middle-income households.

Fresh paddy supplies are expected only after a couple of months.
There are concerns that rice prices could rise further unless adequate stocks are released into the market.

Flood Crisis in Lucknow Shifts to Shelter and Clean Water Needs

Thousands of residents in flood-hit parts of Lucknow now face a fight for safety, shelter, and clean drinking water.
Waterlogging has given way to deeper problems in several localities.

In Faizullaganj, one of the worst-affected areas, floodwaters have entered homes and lanes.
Families have evacuated with the belongings they can carry.
Residents say a bedridden elderly man had to be carried to safety by four people as water levels rose.

Local updates indicate more than 1 lakh people have been affected.
Over 40,000 houses stand partially submerged.
In some spots, water has reached neck level and slowed movement.

A resident, Deepika Srivastava, said stagnant water outside her home remained uncleared.
She added that families face a drinking water shortage and growing concerns over waterborne diseases.
Another resident, Abhishek, noted that most families in his neighbourhood have already left.
He said watching a neighbour being carried out was difficult and that his family may also need to shift.

Anger has sparked protests in several areas.
In Faizullaganj, resident Adarsh Verma staged a demonstration in floodwater and alleged inadequate relief in interior localities.
These claims could not be independently verified.
In Millat Nagar, residents protested from a boat and carried posters that read “mayor missing.”

The rising Gomti has changed parts of the city.
Boats now operate inside the submerged Gomti Riverfront.
Roads, parks, and public spaces remain underwater.
At Ekana Stadium, 26 pumping sets work to drain accumulated water.

Floods have also affected religious sites.
At Lete Hanuman Temple in Chowk, the idol was submerged and devotees offered prayers from outside.
Several other religious places reported flooding as well.

Small businesses count losses too.
Nidhi, who runs a food stall in Gomtinagar, said waterlogging submerged seating and damaged equipment.

Concerns continue over sanitation, drinking water, and disease risks.
Residents list immediate priorities as drainage, clean water, evacuation support, and timely relief.
Many families remain unsure when they can return home or whether their houses will be habitable.

Meanwhile, the Lucknow Municipal Corporation distributed 1,900 food packets and drinking water bottles in waterlogged areas.
It plans to deploy three drones from Saturday for anti-larval spraying.
Municipal commissioner Gaurav Kumar inspected Faizullaganj, Gulmi Kheda, and other localities and reviewed relief work.
The civic body reported a fall in water levels and continued relief, sanitation, and health measures.

Teams used boats to deliver cooked food and dry ration in several villages, including Hayat Nagar, Barawan Kala, and Gulmi Kheda.
Around 70 employees at Khwaja Moinuddin Chishti Bhasha University handled relief supplies.
The corporation also conducted drone-based anti-larval spraying in Lohramau and Daudnagar.

Health department teams surveyed 220 houses in flood-hit areas.
They distributed 288 health kits along with medicines, chlorine tablets, and ORS packets.
Chief medical officer NB Singh inspected Jehta, Daudnagar, and Faizullaganj and reviewed services.
A medical camp operated in Daudnagar, while ambulance and medical teams remained deployed.

Karnataka Releases Rs 1,250 Crore as First Drought Relief for Farmers

Karnataka Deputy Chief Minister G. Parameshwara has released Rs 1,250 crore in relief for drought-hit farmers, ANI reported on Friday. The first direct transfer is Rs 2,500 per farmer. The move follows his visit to Gunnal village in Yelburga taluk and a review meeting at the Koppal Deputy Commissioner’s office.

The state has faced long dry spells, a delayed monsoon, and uneven rain. El Niño also disrupted the Southwest Monsoon. Karnataka is among the worst-affected states, along with Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra.

At the Koppal meeting, Parameshwara reviewed rainfall shortages, crop damage, drinking water, fodder stocks, crop insurance, farm loans, jobs, and health services. Janata Dal (Secular) leader Nikhil Kumaraswamy criticised the aid. He said Rs 2,500 per farmer would not solve the deeper crisis, and he also objected to the delay in declaring drought and to the size of the allocation.

Koppal recorded a 45 percent rainfall deficit in the monsoon season. Kanakagiri saw a 44 percent shortfall, Karatagi 60 percent, and Gangavathi 71 percent. Dry spells of three to six weeks between June and September then disrupted sowing and crop growth.

Field checks in 37 villages found more than 50 percent crop damage in 99 percent of sample plots, ANI reported. As a result, all seven taluks in the district are now officially drought-affected. Koppal had planned sowing on 349,892 hectares and completed about 90 percent, or 314,055 hectares. Deficient rain later damaged maize, tur, pearl millet, onion, and other crops across 302,664 hectares.

After visits to Vijayapura and Ballari, Parameshwara told ANI that 98 percent of crops in Vijayapura district had been destroyed. Northern districts, including Ballari, Vijayanagara, Koppal, Raichur, and Vijayapura, were hit harder than the Mysuru region.

The drought is also pushing rural families to leave. In Lambani Tanda, residents were close to migrating for work, ANI reported. The state has told local officials to expand job allocation under MGNREGA so people can stay.

Groundwater has fallen sharply in several areas. Some regions reported no water even at 500 feet. Parameshwara said drilling to 1,800 feet in his home constituency still failed to yield water. Maize farmers in north Karnataka also faced low market prices along with weaker yields, so the state has asked the Centre to step in.

The immediate plan focuses on drinking water, direct farmer aid, and wage work. Under National Disaster Response Fund norms, eligible farmers can receive Rs 8,500 in total from the Centre and the state. Central funds are still pending. Therefore, the state paid Rs 2,500 per farmer from its own treasury as the first installment. About 50 lakh farmers are eligible, and Rs 1,250 crore has already gone out.

Other steps include paying farmers’ share of the crop insurance premium, a 60-month loan repayment pause, and talks with banks on interest. Fuel and electricity subsidies, plus state guarantee schemes, add indirect support.

“If current assistance proves insufficient, further measures will be taken. Under no circumstances will we abandon our farmers,” Parameshwara said. He added that the state is ready to raise market borrowings if needed.

Karnataka has put initial crop damage at Rs 46,000 crore across 177 taluks. It has asked for Rs 10,000 crore to Rs 12,000 crore under NDRF rules after three central teams visited. An all-party delegation to New Delhi was proposed, but BJP and JD(S) leaders declined to join. Parameshwara said the final loss figure could rise. If it reaches Rs 60,000 crore, the state will seek up to Rs 20,000 crore in central relief, ANI reported.

Forecasters Warn El Niño Is Entering Record Territory

Weather agencies and researchers are warning that the current El Niño is strengthening beyond the range of recent events. The United Nations weather body has said this episode could rank among the strongest since at least 1950. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) also said the pattern will add to the effects of human-driven climate change. As the Pacific releases stored heat, large parts of the planet are expected to run warmer than usual.

Specialists tracking ocean data say the event is still near peak strength heading into winter, with unusual warmth spread across most of the globe. One widely shared reading puts the Niño 3.4 region, a key Pacific monitoring zone, at about 3.4 degrees Celsius above normal. That level is higher than any previous El Niño in the modern record, according to researchers citing those measurements. Some forecasters have described the episode as an extreme, or “super,” El Niño. They also agree with the WMO view that the pattern is likely to last through February 2027.

In its outlook, the WMO said there is a very high chance of above-average sea surface temperatures over large areas in the final months of 2026. In the central and eastern tropical Pacific, the core of the El Niño region, temperatures from October to December are forecast to reach about 3.7 degrees Celsius (6.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above normal. If that holds, it would be a record for the season.

El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, a natural cycle that shifts weather worldwide. It usually raises global temperatures and rearranges rainfall, bringing drought to some regions and heavy rain to others. Episodes typically return every two to seven years.

The human impact could be severe. Researchers at the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab estimated last month that this year’s strong El Niño could be linked to as many as 451,000 excess deaths worldwide between June and February 2027. Those figures are projections, not confirmed counts, and they depend on how heat, storms, and crop losses unfold.

Disclaimer: This article is a general summary of public forecasts and research estimates. Temperature anomalies and death projections are as reported by agencies and studies, and they may be revised. Individual commentator names have been omitted. This is not an official warning for any specific location.

Experts Call Lucknow Waterlogging a Man-Made Crisis After Heavy Rain

Heavy showers recently stalled several parts of Lucknow. Environmentalists now warn that the city’s severe waterlogging is a man-made crisis. They link the repeated flooding to a choked Gomti riverbed, toxic road runoff, and real estate growth over old floodplains and natural drains.

Biswajeet Thakur, a scientist at the Birbal Sahni Institute of Palaeosciences, said rapid and unchecked urban sprawl has weakened the city’s natural drainage. He pointed to aggressive growth toward the south-east along Sultanpur Road. That expansion, he said, has left few vacant plots or permeable green spaces to absorb rain.

Thakur also described a second problem. Heavy road dust mixes with vehicle emissions, metals, oil, and grease. During heavy rain, that mix becomes a thick, toxic slurry. The polluted runoff then clogs drains, worsens waterlogging, and raises environmental toxicity.

He said the Gomti riverbed has also narrowed. A bathymetry survey by the department of remote sensing found silt buildup of up to 50 cm. As a result, the river can take in less excess runoff. Thakur called for restoring original water bodies where possible, digging the river catchment down to sand levels, and increasing soil porosity and permeability.

Venkatesh Dutta, an environmental scientist at Babasaheb Bhimrao Ambedkar University, made a related point. He said urban flooding is driven by narrowed natural channels and the loss of floodplains. When heavy rain continues, the swollen river pushes city drains into low-lying residential areas. He added that nearly 30 bridges across the Gomti obstruct smooth flow. Old paths of the Kukrail, near Marine Drive and Ambedkar Park, have also been blocked by commercial and residential projects. Therefore, low-lying zones flood more easily.

Ajay Arya, head of geology at Lucknow University, said planners need a scientific shift. He called for an interdisciplinary advisory committee of geologists and environmentalists to review urban expansion. Authorities, he said, should use high-resolution satellite data to track land use, protect remaining natural depressions, and require permeable interlocking pavements. He also urged a minimum 15 percent green cover on urban plots and pre-monsoon desilting to keep drainage paths open.

IMD Warns of Thunderstorms, Lightning and Gusty Winds Across India on Wednesday

The India Meteorological Department has issued a widespread weather alert for Wednesday. It has warned of thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds across a large part of the country. The unsettled spell is expected to affect the northern hills, the national capital region, and parts of the east, centre and southern peninsula.

Residents in Delhi, Haryana and Chandigarh should prepare for active weather. The forecast says these conditions may continue in the region through Sunday. The pattern is linked to a larger weather system that is affecting several zones. Authorities have therefore advised caution as rainfall and atmospheric disturbance persist.

In north India, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh and nearby areas are likely to see thunderstorms and gusty winds. Rain is expected to continue across the Himalayan states through the end of the week. Uttar Pradesh is also under watch for thunderstorms and lightning, with rain likely in several parts of the state.

The east and centre face similar conditions. Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha and West Bengal are forecast to see thunderstorms and gusty winds. Widespread rain is expected in sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim from Wednesday through Friday. In central India, Chhattisgarh, east Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha are also likely to see lightning and thunderstorms, along with local rain.

Southern India is bracing for thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds, especially over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, Mahe and Lakshadweep. Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam and south interior Karnataka are among the areas expected to receive more rain in the coming days.

In the northeast, the IMD has placed Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura under a rain watch. Some of these areas may also see lightning and thunderstorms.

West India is not fully clear of the system. Isolated to scattered rain, with possible thunderstorms, is forecast for Konkan, Goa and central Maharashtra. The IMD says weather will stay active across most of these regions, and rain plus instability is likely to shape daily conditions through the rest of the week.

Dry Weather Covers Most of Maharashtra as Heat Lingers in Konkan

Maharashtra is seeing a break in monsoon activity. Dry weather is likely across most regions on October 5, 2026. At the same time, some districts may stay hot and humid.

In Konkan, hot and humid conditions are likely at some places in Palghar, Mumbai, Thane, Ratnagiri, and Raigad. The weather office has issued a yellow alert for hot and humid weather in these districts. Sindhudurg, however, is likely to stay dry.

Western Maharashtra is also set for dry weather. The forecast covers Dhule, Nandurbar, Jalgaon, Nashik, Nashik Ghatmatha, and Ahilyanagar. It also covers Pune, Pune Ghatmatha, Kolhapur, Kolhapur Ghatmatha, Satara, Satara Ghatmatha, Sangli, and Solapur.

Marathwada is likely to remain dry as well. The districts include Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar, Jalna, Parbhani, Beed, Hingoli, Nanded, and Latur.

In Vidarbha, no alert is in place. The districts without an alert are Akola, Amravati, Bhandara, Buldhana, Chandrapur, Gadchiroli, Nagpur, Wardha, Washim, and Yavatmal.

Overall, the state forecast points to a drier day. Heat and humidity stay limited mainly to parts of Konkan.

Delhi Air Quality Falls to an 83-Day Low

Delhi’s air quality weakened on Sunday. The AQI reached 187, the highest in 83 days, and sat in the moderate category. The maximum temperature was 36.4 degrees Celsius, which is 2.2 degrees above normal. The minimum stood at 24.1 degrees Celsius, 1.8 degrees above normal.

The city last recorded a higher AQI on July 13, at 246. According to the Sameer app, 16 stations fell in the poor category. Mundka logged the highest reading at 273, followed by Narela at 257. Twenty-six stations stayed in the moderate range. Burari was the only station in the satisfactory category.

The CPCB scale treats 0–50 as good, 51–100 as satisfactory, 101–200 as moderate, and 201–300 as poor. Readings from 301–400 are very poor, and 401–500 are severe.

Ayanagar recorded the highest maximum temperature at 37 degrees Celsius. Safdarjung followed at 36.4, Lodi Road at 36.3, Ridge at 35.8, and Palam at 34.6. Minimum readings were 24.1 at Safdarjung, 23.2 at Lodi Road, 22.8 at Ayanagar, 22.4 at Palam, and 21 at Ridge.

A Record El Niño Is Rewriting Pacific Weather, and the Effects Reach Far Beyond It

The Pacific Ocean is warming unusually quickly, and this year’s El Niño has already passed previous records. Forecasters expect it to strengthen further before its usual peak around December. El Niño is the warm phase of a natural climate swing. It can bring drought to some regions and raise the risk of heavy rain and flooding in others. The reason sits in the Pacific’s warm water and the air above it.

In a typical year, trade winds blow from east to west across the tropical Pacific. They push warm surface water toward Indonesia and nearby seas. As that water moves west, colder water rises from below in the east. Scientists call that upwelling. Therefore, the western Pacific is usually much warmer than the eastern Pacific.

Warmer water evaporates more. The western Pacific feeds moisture into the air, and the ocean warms that air so it rises. Rising air lowers the pressure around it, then expands and cools. Water vapour condenses into clouds and rain, and releases heat into the atmosphere. High above the Pacific, some of that air spreads east and sinks over the cooler eastern Pacific. Near the surface, air flows back west as the trade winds. That loop is the Walker circulation.

This pattern helps explain heavy rain around Indonesia and a much drier eastern tropical Pacific and coastal Peru. Some parts of Indonesia can receive more rain in a month than Lima receives in a year. The pattern also reinforces itself. Warm water in the west encourages rising air, cooler water in the east favours sinking air, and the trade winds keep the contrast in place. Scientists call that mutual reinforcement the Bjerknes feedback.

El Niño breaks that script. The trade winds weaken, so less warm water is pushed west. More warm water stays in the central and eastern Pacific, and the western Pacific can turn relatively cooler. The zone of strongest evaporation, rising air, cloud, and rain then shifts east. Parts of the eastern Pacific, including coastal Peru, can turn much wetter. Meanwhile, sinking air over the western Pacific makes clouds harder to form. Indonesia and nearby areas can turn much drier, which can also raise the risk of forest and peatland fires. The smaller east-west temperature gap weakens the trade winds further, so the Walker circulation itself weakens and shifts east.

Those changes travel through teleconnections. Heat released when vapour condenses can warm the middle and upper tropical atmosphere far beyond the Pacific. Over the Sahel, on the southern fringe of the Sahara, that can make it harder for moist surface air to keep rising, which suppresses rain and can dry the land further. Scientists call this the tropospheric temperature mechanism. A second path is atmospheric ripples that change winds and storm tracks. Britain can see a higher chance of wetter, stormier weather in autumn and early winter, and a higher chance of colder spells later in winter. Those links are less certain than many tropical effects, because other drivers also shape UK weather. A third path runs through other oceans, including the Indian Ocean dipole, which influences rain over East Africa and parts of India.

El Niño shifts the odds. It does not decide every day’s weather. Thailand often leans drier during El Niño, yet parts of the country, including Bangkok, saw heavy rain and flooding this September. India has shown a similar contrast: the monsoon has been unusually dry overall this year, while some regions still saw intense rain and flooding. Local systems can still produce extremes in the other direction.

Recent images have already tied the event to local damage. High tides and large waves linked to El Niño were associated with a bluff failure in Encinitas, California, on September 18. Along Peru’s coast, environmental groups have warned that warmer Pacific water and shifting marine ecosystems are reducing fish available to seabirds.

Disclaimer: This article rewrites publicly reported climate explanations for general information only. It is not an official forecast. Local weather can differ from the regional tendency. Readers should check the latest meteorological bulletin before they act.