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Fresh monsoon activity may soon spread across large parts of east and central India. Weather systems are beginning to form over the Bay of Bengal. Forecasters expect the next seven to 10 days to become an important phase for the Southwest Monsoon. Several low-pressure systems may develop and move inland.

A long zone of atmospheric convergence has formed. It stretches from the Bay of Bengal towards the western Pacific. Such zones can help organised weather systems develop. They bring together moisture-laden winds. Therefore, conditions become more favourable for low-pressure areas.

Several low-pressure systems may emerge along this zone. They could move westward toward central India over the next five to seven days. As these systems travel inland, they may trigger widespread showers across eastern and central regions. This rain could help areas that have remained deficient during the monsoon season.

The first half of September may decide the season’s final outcome. Rainfall in this period could change the overall monsoon numbers. Forecasters say a swing of about 5 percent above or below current levels is still possible. That shift will depend on how active the monsoon becomes.

Rainfall so far in the 2026 Southwest Monsoon has been uneven. Ladakh has recorded the largest surplus at 204 percent above normal. Dadra and Nagar Haveli and Daman and Diu have seen a 51 percent surplus. Odisha is 25 percent above normal. Delhi has also received 18 percent excess rainfall.

Several states still face large deficits. Meghalaya has the sharpest shortfall at 58 percent below normal. Manipur is 43 percent below normal. Bihar is 42 percent below normal. Arunachal Pradesh and Andhra Pradesh are both around 40 percent below normal.

India as a whole has received 587.8 mm of rainfall. The normal amount for this period is 679.5 mm. This leaves a seasonal deficit of 13 percent. Despite the shortfall, the monsoon still falls within the India Meteorological Department’s normal rainfall category.

The developing Bay of Bengal systems may now play a decisive role. Rainfall in early September could also shape the final picture. Together, these factors may determine how the 2026 monsoon season ends.

A bus driver’s quick decision may have saved two travellers from a flash flood near Nepal’s Kerung border. Anukul Poddar and his wife, Reba, were heading toward Tibet when the danger struck.

The couple had travelled about one hour from the immigration centre. Around 9:30 am on Wednesday, the driver stopped the bus. He warned that a flash flood had hit the area. He then refused to continue on the same road. Shortly after the bus turned toward Kathmandu, floodwaters washed away the stretch where they had stopped.

Anukul later described a cloud moving down the gorge and a hissing sound. At that moment, the group did not know the scale of damage at the Kerung immigration centre. The driver did not wait. He took another route and drove the passengers to Kathmandu. The journey from that point took about two hours.

Minutes later, the travellers saw schoolchildren, local residents and vehicles rushing uphill. People were screaming as they ran. The scene showed how quickly the situation had changed.

The Poddars later learned that another couple from their hometown had already reached the immigration centre. That couple has remained missing since the flood.

Anukul and Reba, both 66, live in Basirhat in West Bengal. They were part of a pilgrim group called The Cholo Jai. The group left Kolkata on August 21 for the Kailash-Manasarovar journey. On Wednesday, they were scheduled to enter Tibet.

Another couple from Basirhat, Swapan Mondal and his wife Mou, also retired schoolteachers, travelled with a different agency. They are known to the Poddars. Their group reached the immigration centre earlier. Swapan last sent a good morning message to Anukul at 8:30 am. The message included a photograph of the couple at the immigration office. There has been no contact since then.

The two families usually travel together with the same agency. This year, a delay in Anukul’s passport renewal caused them to miss the original deadline. As a result, the Poddars joined the Cholo Jai team. The Mondals had to travel with another agency. Both groups still started on August 21 and boarded the same train.

The Mondals’ team left Kathmandu on Tuesday and headed toward Kerung. They were supposed to stay overnight and reach the immigration office at 8:30 am. The Poddars’ team left Kathmandu early on Wednesday. Their scheduled arrival was around 10:30 am.

State officials later said at least 39 people from West Bengal were reported missing. Family members and the administration then managed to contact the Poddar couple.

On Saturday, the Poddars reached Raxaul in Bihar from Biratnagar in Nepal with other members of their team. They boarded the Mithila Express and were scheduled to reach Howrah early on Sunday.

Officials had directed police to arrange flight tickets for the couple. However, the pair had already reached Biratnagar. Returning to Kathmandu for a flight would have taken more time. Therefore, they chose to travel by train.

Their son, Satyaki Poddar, lives in New Town. He said the couple remains in shock. He added that they may stay with family for some days. There is still no news of the Mondal family. Relatives continue to hope for their safe return.

Forecasters now expect Tropical Storm Karina to strengthen into a major hurricane. Some updated models also show paths that could bring effects toward California.

The National Hurricane Center said Karina already has sustained winds above 50 mph. It may reach hurricane strength as early as Friday night.

By Sunday morning, some forecasts show the storm becoming a Category 3 hurricane. That would mean winds above 111 mph.

Spaghetti models display a range of possible tracks. A few of those tracks point toward the California coast. Earlier, the American GFS model showed scenarios that included a possible landfall near San Diego or Los Angeles. The European ensemble was more doubtful on Thursday and kept the storm offshore.

Both model sets were updated on Friday. They now show a greater chance of paths toward Southern California and areas farther north.

A hurricane making landfall in California remains highly unusual. The National Weather Service notes that the state has no recorded hurricane landfall in its history. The last tropical storm to affect the state directly was in 1997.

Karina is currently less than 1,400 miles south of San Diego. It is moving northwest at about 13 mph, well off the Mexican coast.

Even at that distance, the National Hurricane Center warned that tropical-storm-force winds extend more than 200 miles from the centre. Officials also expect swells along the southwestern coast of Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula this weekend. Those swells could create dangerous rip currents.

Rip currents are strong, narrow flows that pull water away from the shore. They can quickly carry swimmers into deeper water and tire them as they try to fight the current.

Scientists have linked yesterday’s flash floods in Nepal to climate change. Rushing water reportedly reached extreme heights after a glacier collapsed.

Researchers are still examining the exact sequence of events. However, several experts point to global warming as a key factor.

Dr Wouter Buytaert of Imperial College London described the disaster as typical of climate-driven events. Rising temperatures shrink glaciers and raise the chance they will break apart. At the same time, land degradation from wildfires, extreme weather, and unsustainable land use weakens valley slopes. In steep mountain valleys, these conditions create a high risk of sudden floods.

The floods occurred only one month after a study warned of growing glacial collapse risk in the Himalayas. Researchers at Kathmandu University noted that the region is warming faster than the global average. This accelerates glacier melt and increases the danger of glacial lake outburst floods, or GLOFs.

Officials in Nepal have called the damage severe. Floods destroyed buildings and bridges along the Nepal–Tibet border.

The United States Geological Survey first reported the event as a magnitude 4.4 earthquake. Later analysis of seismic data and satellite images showed no earthquake occurred. Instead, a glacial collapse and debris flow caused the flooding.

Dr Adrian McCallum, a glaciologist, said such events are becoming more common in alpine regions as the climate changes. Melting glaciers form lakes behind natural moraine dams. When those dams fail, large volumes of water rush down the valley and destroy everything in their path.

Dr Ella Gilbert of the British Antarctic Survey added that climate heating is destabilising Himalayan glaciers. The rate of ice loss has doubled since 2000. When glacier stability declines, sudden failures can follow.

A GLOF happens when water stored in a lake near or under a glacier is released suddenly. The flood can carry water, mud, rocks, and debris. It often damages settlements, roads, bridges, and farmland. Mountain regions such as the Himalayas face this hazard regularly.

Nepal is especially vulnerable. Its steep terrain, fragile ecosystems, and limited adaptive capacity increase the risk. Climate-related disasters, including floods, landslides, glacier retreat, and GLOFs, have already caused significant loss.

At least 45 GLOF events have occurred across 39 lakes in Nepal in recent decades. Several of them caused loss of life. Scientists warn that rising temperatures will make these events more frequent.

Researchers note that Nepal already suffers climate-related losses at current warming levels. Further temperature rise would increase the risk of floods, glacier melt, GLOFs, and droughts.

Experts hope the latest disaster will encourage better early-warning systems. Monitoring the build-up of water in glacial lakes could give downstream communities time to prepare. Such systems have the potential to save lives as similar events become more likely.

Heavy rain has lashed Kodagu district since Monday midnight. The district received steady rainfall throughout Tuesday.

As a result, the water level in the Cauvery river rose sharply. The Bhagamandala Triveni Sangama went underwater for the second time. A coffee plantation at Kaggoddu near Madikeri also flooded.

Kodagu recorded an average rainfall of 37 mm until Tuesday morning. Madikeri received 85.35 mm. Bhagamandala recorded the highest amount at 150 mm.

The heavy rain increased inflow into the Harangi reservoir. The inflow reached 4,360 cusecs by Tuesday evening. Earlier, it stood at 3,638 cusecs at 8 am.

The reservoir is already full. Authorities are therefore releasing 10,000 cusecs of water from the dam.

In Aranthodu, the Koornadaka bridge went underwater after overnight rain. This bridge lies on the road that connects Peraje via Aletti-Baddadka.

Consequently, vehicles and pedestrians must now take a longer alternative route.