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Monsoon Slows Over South India, But Official Withdrawal Has Not Begun

The southwest monsoon has quietened over large parts of India. The rainy season now enters its final weeks. Rainfall has eased most clearly over peninsular India. That raises a simple question. Is the season ending, or will another spell of rain arrive?

It is still too early to call the monsoon over. On September 7, the India Meteorological Department said rainfall will stay subdued over peninsular India for the next seven days. However, this remains a lull. It is not the formal withdrawal. Rain continues in other regions.

Is the monsoon still active?

The slowdown stands out across southern and peninsular India. The latest IMD outlook points to limited rain there in the coming days. Elsewhere, the monsoon stays active. A low-pressure area over central Uttar Pradesh is influencing weather over parts of north and central India. The monsoon trough also remains in play. It stretches from northwest India towards the Bay of Bengal. As a result, several regions still receive rain.

There is another reason to wait. IMD’s extended-range forecast points to a fresh cyclonic circulation over the central and adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal. Under that influence, a low-pressure area may form in the same region. That system could increase rain over eastern and adjoining northeastern parts of peninsular India in the following week.

When could rain return?

The next spell is likely to stay uneven. It will not cover the whole country at once. IMD expects fairly widespread rain over Chhattisgarh from September 8 to 12. Vidarbha may see rain from September 10 to 12. Odisha may also receive rain during the same period. Therefore, peninsular India may stay relatively dry for now. The pattern could turn more active later as the Bay of Bengal system develops.

September rain still matters for farming. Below-normal rain this month could affect standing crops. It could also reduce soil moisture before the winter sowing season.

Has the monsoon ended?

The rainy season has not checked out of India yet. A lull does not mean official withdrawal. IMD declares withdrawal only after specific conditions appear. Those include five straight days without significant rain, an anticyclone in the lower atmosphere, and a clear drop in moisture.

In short, the monsoon is slowing. It has not left. More rain remains possible if the expected Bay of Bengal system forms as forecast. For now, the season has taken a pause. It has not quit.

IMD Forecasts Heavy Rain in UP, Uttarakhand, Bihar and the Northeast

The India Meteorological Department has warned of widespread rain across large parts of India this week. Heavy to very heavy showers may hit parts of Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Bihar and the Northeast. A low-pressure area has moved from southwest Uttar Pradesh to central Uttar Pradesh. Meanwhile, several weather systems are acting together.

Eastern Uttar Pradesh may see fairly widespread to widespread rain on 7 and 8 September. Heavy rain is likely there on 8 September. Isolated very heavy rain is also possible over eastern and western Uttar Pradesh on 7 September.

Uttarakhand may receive widespread rain on 7 September. Another wet spell is likely from 10 to 13 September. During that later period, heavy rain, thunderstorms and lightning may occur.

Rain is also likely over Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Punjab and Rajasthan through the week. However, IMD has not issued a warning for Delhi and Haryana for the next seven days.

Eastern India may stay especially wet. Bihar is likely to get widespread rain from 7 to 9 September. Isolated heavy rain may follow from 8 to 10 September. Very heavy rain is possible in Bihar on 7 September.

Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim may also see very heavy rain on 7 September. Heavy rain is then likely on 8 September and again on 11 and 12 September. In addition, Jharkhand and Odisha may get spells of heavy rain. Thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds are possible in several of these areas.

Across the Northeast, Assam and Meghalaya may receive heavy rain from 7 to 13 September. Arunachal Pradesh may see heavy rain on 8 and 9 September, and again from 11 to 13 September. Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura are also likely to get heavy spells.

Rain should continue over west Madhya Pradesh, east Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha and Chhattisgarh through the week. Heavy rainfall is possible in parts of Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. Konkan and Goa may see fairly widespread to widespread rain through 13 September. Meanwhile, Gujarat, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, and Saurashtra and Kutch may get isolated to scattered showers.

In the south, Kerala is likely to see widespread rain from 10 to 12 September. Thunderstorms and gusty winds are also possible over parts of Tamil Nadu and Telangana.

Residents in the alert zones should watch official updates. Authorities also advise caution near rivers, low-lying areas and hill slopes during heavy spells.

Motorcyclist Swept Off Flooded Crossing in Sawai Madhopur, Escapes Unhurt

A man tried to ride a motorcycle across a flooded stretch in Sawai Madhopur, Rajasthan. Strong current then pulled him and the bike downstream. He got out safely. The motorcycle was carried away.

The Jhareti stream was running high. It brings water from the forests and hills of Ranthambore. Rain had fallen without a break since morning. Water therefore collected on the crossing.

Vehicles queued on both sides. Drivers waited for the flow to ease. One rider still attempted the crossing. He moved a short way through the water. Then he lost his balance. The current swept him and the motorcycle farther down the stream.

He tried to keep hold of the bike. The flow was too strong. The motorcycle disappeared into the water. After being carried some distance, the man reached the bank. He escaped without a serious injury.

The episode underlines a familiar monsoon risk. Flooded roads and seasonal streams can look shallow and still knock a rider off course. Officials have repeatedly told people not to cross waterlogged stretches when the current is strong. Waiting is safer than testing the flow.

Very Strong El Niño Builds in the Pacific as India Watches a Positive IOD

A very strong El Niño is taking shape in the Pacific Ocean. The World Meteorological Organization said so on 3 September. The agency also said the event is now firmly established. It is likely to strengthen further in the coming months.

WMO forecasts give the event a nearly 100 percent chance of lasting through February 2027. Meanwhile, exceptionally warm waters in the tropical Pacific could shift rainfall and temperature patterns worldwide. Therefore, flood, drought, and extreme heat risks may rise in many regions.

Another ocean signal could change the picture for India. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole is also expected to develop during September to November. WMO forecasts a seasonal average IOD value of about 0.9°C. However, that does not mean the Indian Ocean will cancel El Niño.

WMO uses careful language. It says El Niño and a positive IOD can reinforce, weaken, or alter typical El Niño impacts in different regions. As a result, the two patterns may interact. The exact outcome will still depend on how both systems evolve.

The distinction matters for India. The country has already seen a weaker-than-normal monsoon in 2026. September rainfall has been running below normal. Concerns have also grown for cotton, soybean, maize, and rice.

El Niño forms when sea-surface temperatures turn unusually warm across parts of the central and eastern tropical Pacific. That warming then changes atmospheric circulation. Rainfall and temperature patterns can shift far beyond the Pacific.

WMO’s 31 July assessment said El Niño was strengthening steadily. It also forecast the seasonal average sea-surface temperature anomaly to exceed 2.9°C in key monitoring regions during August to October. Later, the 3 September outlook put the expected Niño 3.4 anomaly at about 3.6°C for September to November. The event is expected to peak around November and December.

The current event already ranks among the four strongest El Niño events since 1950, according to Reuters. WMO calls it “very strong.” It expects further intensification. Still, the agency has not officially labelled it a “super El Niño.”

India’s Ministry of Earth Sciences made a similar point on 30 July. It said neither WMO nor the India Meteorological Department uses an official “Super El Niño” category. Events are generally classed as weak, moderate, strong, or very strong. The ministry also said IMD had predicted El Niño during the 2026 southwest monsoon. Conditions were weak in June. They then strengthened to moderate levels in July. El Niño may reach the very strong category during October to December.

Timing still matters. El Niño often peaks late in the year, after India’s main southwest monsoon. Even so, the risk for India does not disappear. El Niño can affect rainfall and temperatures after the monsoon as well. Effects also vary from one event to another.

WMO said a strong El Niño can shift rainfall patterns. It can also raise the risks of floods, drought, and extreme heat. The September outlook further points to above-normal temperatures across almost all land areas.

The Indian Ocean Dipole is a separate climate pattern. It measures the difference in sea-surface temperatures between the western and eastern tropical Indian Ocean. A positive IOD generally means warmer-than-normal waters in the west and cooler-than-normal waters in the east.

WMO’s 31 July update said a positive IOD was expected to develop alongside the strengthening El Niño. The 3 September forecast then put the September–November seasonal average at 0.9°C. India’s weather authorities track both signals when they assess the monsoon.

A government release on 30 April said neutral IOD conditions were present at that time. Climate models nevertheless pointed to a possible positive IOD toward the end of the southwest monsoon. Sea-surface conditions in the Pacific and Indian oceans strongly influence the Indian monsoon.

Available forecasts still do not say a positive IOD will definitely blunt El Niño over India. WMO remains cautious. The two oceanic patterns can reinforce, weaken, or alter typical impacts. IMD has also said El Niño is only one factor. Intensity and effects over India depend on wider ocean-atmosphere conditions.

Latest rainfall data explain why caution is needed. India’s September rainfall was 35 percent below normal at one reported point, according to Reuters. June rainfall had also been 35 percent below normal. August remained deficient as well. A continued shortfall could make 2026 India’s weakest monsoon in nearly two decades.

September rain matters for standing crops. It also matters for soil moisture. Farmers then prepare winter crops such as wheat, rapeseed, and chickpeas.

The developing El Niño therefore adds uncertainty to India’s weather outlook. The positive IOD means the Pacific signal cannot be viewed alone. WMO’s latest assessment includes both patterns. It also says they can interact differently across regions.

That is the strongest factual basis for the key question. Can the Indian Ocean soften El Niño’s impact? It can change how El Niño affects different regions. There is still no official forecast saying it will fully offset the Pacific event over India.

The coming months will depend on how Pacific warming and the positive IOD evolve together. WMO expects El Niño to persist through February 2027. The positive IOD is expected during September to November.

A very strong El Niño can cause significant changes in rainfall and temperature. It can also raise the risks of extreme heat, drought, and floods. The positive IOD could modify that pattern. It cannot yet be treated as a shield.

Therefore, the Indian Ocean may change how El Niño affects India. It cannot yet be counted on to protect the country. That uncertainty makes the next few months important for agriculture, water management, and weather preparedness.

West Bengal chief minister Suvendu Adhikari held an emergency meeting on Friday. The meeting reviewed flood conditions in several south Bengal districts. Heavy rain and water releases from DVC barrages in Jharkhand worsened the situation.

Adhikari said nine gram panchayat areas in Jangipara, Khanakul, and Goghat in Hooghly are worst affected. Low‑lying areas of Udaynarayanpur in Howrah are also inundated. Sonamukhi in Bankura is stable for now.

He noted rivers in Khanakul, Jangipara, and Udaynarayanpur were flowing above danger level. Rainfall has reduced and DVC is releasing less water from Maithon and Panchet dams. “The situation is under control as of now,” Adhikari said.

District administrations have been instructed to distribute ration and relief materials. Medicines and anti‑venom injections are stocked. Speed boats are on standby. Police will distribute food and fodder for livestock.

Adhikari refused to blame DVC for the floods. He said excessive rainfall naturally causes reservoirs to overflow. “This is natural,” he added, distancing himself from past political blame.

Glacier Risks Rising on Tibetan Plateau

Chinese climate officials have warned of growing instability in Tibetan Plateau glaciers. The concern follows the August 26 ice-rock avalanche near the Nepal-Tibet border, which triggered flash floods across towns and villages.

Over the past 60 years, glacier area on the plateau has shrunk by 24%, with around 7,000 small glaciers disappearing. Gao Rong of China’s National Climate Centre said structural stability will decline further, increasing the likelihood of more frequent disasters.

At Gyirong Port, officials reported 541 people missing, including 261 foreigners from 23 countries. The collapse created a mudslide that travelled 22 km in seven minutes, pulling in debris and water as it moved downstream.

Researchers from the Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research stressed that risk assessments must consider not only the initial collapse but also how much material can be entrained along valleys. This determines the scale of hazards to people and infrastructure.

A Nature article highlighted the need for better monitoring systems. Experts said conventional tools are not enough to predict sudden glacier-rock failures. They called for regional satellite-based systems that track glacier and slope deformation, linking data directly to flood and avalanche models.

Scientists and officials agree that future assessments must adapt to the rapid changes in high-mountain environments. The Tibetan Plateau remains a critical region where glacier instability could amplify risks across borders.

Nepal Prime Minister Balendra Shah has thanked India and China for a fast response to flash floods that struck on August 26. Rescue teams are still searching for survivors and missing people in the worst-hit areas. Shah pointed to emergency aid from both neighbours. That help has included relief supplies, technical support, and rescue staff.

The floods wrecked large parts of Nepal and areas of China’s Tibet region. Roads, bridges, settlements, and hydropower sites were damaged. Debris and water cut mountain routes and isolated communities.

India has sent a fifth tranche of emergency material. Indian Air Force aircraft have flown several sorties with supplies. New Delhi has also offered specialised search-and-rescue help. Indian teams have worked around hydropower tunnels. They have also supported forensic identification as casualties and missing-person cases rose.

China has run rescue and recovery work on its side of the border. Authorities reopened the damaged G216 highway toward the Gyirong crossing. That reopening let heavy machinery and specialist equipment reach places that the flood had blocked.

The thanks came days after Foreign Affairs Minister Shisir Khanal called for a different model of disaster aid. He argued that India, China, and the United States should offer “climate compensation,” not only humanitarian relief. Khanal said Nepal emits little greenhouse gas but faces high risk in the Himalaya. In his view, assistance should be framed as justice, not charity. Major emitters, he said, carry a larger share of responsibility. Kathmandu is still taking emergency help from several countries and agencies while it presses that argument.

The disaster is one of Nepal’s gravest recent emergencies. Latest reports put the death toll above 1,100. Thousands remain listed as missing. A glacial collapse sent water, ice, rock, and debris down river valleys along the Nepal–China border. The surge swept away infrastructure and trapped people in several spots.

On Wednesday, Nepali rescuers kept searching hydropower tunnels. Hopes of finding anyone alive there were fading. Blocked passages slowed the teams. No survivors were found in those workings. Forensic staff are identifying recovered bodies. Other crews continue to look for the missing.

Rain lashed Delhi-NCR on Tuesday. The India Meteorological Department issued an orange nowcast for several parts of the region. The alert covers Ghaziabad along with Central, North, and South Delhi. More showers were likely in the next two hours after the warning went out.

The wider week still looks wet at first, then drier. IMD expects a mix of rain and cloud over the next seven days. Rain is more likely during the first four days. Temperatures should stay roughly between 24 and 36 degrees Celsius.

September 1 points to a minimum of 28 degrees Celsius and a maximum of 36 degrees Celsius. Skies should stay generally cloudy. Light rain or drizzle is possible. September 2 looks cooler. The forecast puts the minimum at 24 degrees Celsius and the maximum at 33 degrees Celsius. Cloud cover should persist. Moderate rain is likely that day.

September 3 keeps a similar range, from 24 to 33 degrees Celsius. Generally cloudy skies and light rain or drizzle remain on the chart. September 4 then eases the heat a little more. The minimum is placed at 25 degrees Celsius and the maximum at 32 degrees Celsius. Light rain or drizzle can still fall under cloudy skies.

The later stretch looks quieter. September 5 is forecast at 24 to 33 degrees Celsius with partly cloudy skies. September 6 repeats that 24 to 33 degree band and the same partial cloud. September 7 may dip to a minimum of 23 degrees Celsius, with a maximum near 32 degrees Celsius. Partly cloudy weather is expected to continue.

Commuters should treat the orange nowcast as a short-term warning for heavy bursts, waterlogging, and slower traffic. The seven-day outlook is a broader guide. Local showers can still differ from the city-wide chart. Check the latest IMD nowcast before travel.

August left Uttar Pradesh wetter than usual. The rain, however, did not fall evenly. Some districts recorded more than twice their normal totals. Others barely received a few showers.

The state received 291.3 mm in August. The long-period average stands at 235.5 mm. Therefore, the month ended 24% above normal, according to India Meteorological Department data.

Mahoba stood out on the wet side. The district received 673.7 mm. That total is nearly three times the usual amount and marks a 199% surplus. Prayagraj recorded 601.6 mm, which is 160% above normal. Banda received 646 mm. Chitrakoot received 632.9 mm. Both districts stayed more than 140% above their averages.

The dry end of the map looked very different. Deoria received only 42.5 mm, which is 81% below normal. Kushinagar recorded 54 mm and finished 74% short. Mau received 89.5 mm and stayed 60% below its usual mark.

Lucknow also stayed on the wetter side. The capital received 330.6 mm against a normal of 202 mm, a 64% surplus. Barabanki recorded 291.4 mm, which is 23% above normal. Kanpur city received 392.9 mm and posted a 107% excess. Varanasi received 448 mm, 83% above its average.

West Uttar Pradesh ended the month wetter than the east. The western region received 294 mm against a normal of 228.3 mm, a 29% surplus. East Uttar Pradesh received 289.5 mm against 240.6 mm and posted a 20% surplus. Atul Kumar Singh, a senior scientist at the Regional Meteorological Centre in Lucknow, confirmed this split.

The wider monsoon season still lags. Since June 1, Uttar Pradesh has a 7% rainfall deficit. East Uttar Pradesh remains 13% below normal. West Uttar Pradesh holds a 3% surplus.

District-level results stay mixed as well. Twenty-one districts have received deficient or large deficient rainfall so far. Thirty-four districts have recorded normal rainfall. Nine districts have received excess rain. Two districts have recorded large excess rainfall.

September may bring another wet spell. The IMD expects heavy to very heavy rain across Uttar Pradesh in the coming week. A well-marked low-pressure area over the northwest Bay of Bengal is moving west-northwest towards Gangetic West Bengal, adjoining north coastal Odisha, and the northwest Bay of Bengal. The system should strengthen monsoon flow over the region. Eastern Uttar Pradesh may see very heavy rain at isolated places during the first 48 hours.

An orange alert covers Banda, Chitrakoot, Kaushambi, Prayagraj, Fatehpur, Pratapgarh, Sonbhadra, Mirzapur, Sant Ravidas Nagar, Raebareli, and Amethi. A yellow alert covers more than 20 districts. Those include Lucknow, Barabanki, Ayodhya, Varanasi, Jaunpur, Ghazipur, Azamgarh, Kanpur Nagar, Unnao, Bijnor, Moradabad, Bareilly, Pilibhit, Sambhal, Badaun, Jalaun, Hamirpur, and Mahoba.

In the last 24 hours, Moradabad CWC recorded 149.4 mm. Koraon in Prayagraj received 132 mm. Rajapur in Chitrakoot received 67 mm.