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IMD Forecasts Widespread Rain and Thunderstorms Across Southern India

Residents across southern India should prepare for unsettled weather. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a forecast for widespread rainfall and thunderstorms starting Saturday, November 7. The system will bring significant precipitation along with risks of gusty winds and lightning.

Kerala, Mahe, Lakshadweep, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Karaikal face the strongest impact. These regions can expect fairly widespread to widespread rainfall. Moreover, the IMD has highlighted the chance of isolated heavy downpours in Kerala and Tamil Nadu during this spell. Atmospheric instability will also trigger thunderstorms and lightning across several southern states. Gusty winds may reach 30 to 40 kmph, with occasional peaks at 50 kmph.

Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam will experience strong surface winds alongside scattered showers. Conditions in Kerala, Mahe, and Lakshadweep are likely to remain active through November 8. In contrast, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Karaikal may see stormy weather persist until November 10. Karnataka will also feel the effects. Coastal areas can expect scattered rainfall through November 8, while south interior parts may receive showers until November 10.

Meanwhile, west and central India are expected to stay largely dry with no significant weather activity. However, northwest India will see a shift starting November 8. Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, and Himachal Pradesh are projected to receive showers later in the week. The IMD forecasts a potential increase in intensity by November 11 and 12. In the northeast, isolated to scattered rainfall is likely across Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura. Some areas may encounter heavy rainfall by the middle of next week. Odisha is set for isolated rainfall on Saturday, with further wet spells likely on November 10 and 11.

Delhi’s Air Turns Severe on Same Stations as Last Diwali

Delhi’s air turned “severe”, the worst grade on the government’s pollution scale, at 6am on Friday. It did so on the same 39 monitoring stations the city had last Diwali, an HT analysis of Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB) data shows. The official index averages the past 24 hours, so it smooths out swings and is slow to show a rise this fast. When HT scored each hour on its own, as if that hour’s air held for a full day, every hour since 8pm on Thursday came out “severe” on all 59 of today’s stations. The 10am score was 453 on the 0-500 index, against the official 391. The official figure will move towards it if the air stays this dirty.

The new stations also hold the official figure down. Several of the 20 added since last Diwali read well below the older stations around them. On the 39 stations that reported last Diwali, the 10am figure was 407.

How Bad It Is

At 10am, the typical Delhi station recorded 335 micrograms of PM2.5 per cubic metre of air. That is more than five times India’s limit of 60 for a day’s average. PM2.5 is fine particles small enough to lodge deep in the lungs. That level is well inside CPCB’s “severe” band for PM2.5, which begins at 250. CPCB says air in that band affects healthy people and seriously affects people who already have an illness. Forty-one of Delhi’s 59 stations, about seven in ten, were past that line. The pollution has built up over two still nights. The typical reading more than doubled from Wednesday afternoon to Friday morning, with only a partial clearing on Thursday afternoon.

Major Surge in Farm Fires

Farm fires in Punjab and Haryana are surging late in the afternoon, after the satellite behind the usual count has passed. INSAT-3DS, an Indian satellite that scans the region every half hour, saw its daily count grow more than four and a half times from Sunday to Thursday. It spotted almost all of those fires between 4pm and 6pm. The count usually quoted, which Nasa publishes, comes from a satellite that passes over Punjab once in daylight, at about 2pm. It grew by only about 60% over the same days. By that count this has been a light season. It recorded 184 fires a day in the week to Thursday, close to last year’s 200, half of 2024’s 388, and far below the several thousand a day of 2018-2022.

The two satellites detect fires in different ways, so their growth can be compared but their totals cannot. Nasa’s count is accurate for what it measures: fires burning at about 2pm. Fires lit after the satellite has passed do not show up in it, and they may now be a large and growing share of the burning. Late-afternoon fires grew far faster than the 2pm count.

Wind and Weather Conditions

The wind has been coming from the same direction as the fires. Smoke travels between regions on the transport-level winds, one to three kilometres above the ground. These have blown from the north-west, from Punjab and Haryana, almost without a break since October 31, and have strengthened to about 36 km/h. That wind would carry smoke from the fire belt towards Delhi. The readings cannot show how much of it reached the city.

There has been no wind at ground level to clear the air, and pre-Diwali traffic has jammed the city’s roads for days. Safdarjung reported dead calm through most of Thursday night. Every morning this week, a layer of warmer air a couple of hundred metres up has worked like a lid, keeping the night’s pollution close to the ground. On a typical early-November afternoon, the sun breaks that lid and spreads pollution through about 1,300 metres of air. This week the pollution spread only 600 to 800 metres up, so the same pollution was packed into about half the usual space. Exhaust from the traffic, and the rest of Delhi’s own emissions, build up in that shallow layer.

Friday is Dhanteras and Diwali falls on Sunday. Every reading here was taken before the festivities began. INSAT’s count of Friday afternoon’s fires will be available tonight.

Antarctica Ozone Hole Reaches Seventh-Largest Size, Scientists Cite Weather

The ozone hole over Antarctica grew to its seventh-largest size in 48 years of monitoring this year. The expansion revived concerns about Earth’s protective shield against harmful solar radiation. However, scientists from NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said weather conditions largely drove the unusually large hole. They added that the ozone layer remains on track for long-term recovery.

According to measurements released on November 4, the ozone hole covered an average area of around 25 million square kilometres between September 7 and October 13, 2026. At its peak on September 18, it expanded to approximately 27.1 million square kilometres. This size reached nearly 90 percent of the largest ozone hole ever recorded in 2000.

Weather Drove the Expansion

Scientists attributed this year’s large ozone hole to a powerful polar vortex. This band of strong winds circles Antarctica and traps extremely cold air over the continent. These freezing conditions encourage the formation of special clouds high in the atmosphere. In these clouds, chlorine and bromine released by human-made chemicals trigger reactions that destroy ozone.

This year, weather systems that normally weaken the polar vortex stayed unusually weak during August and September. As a result, the vortex remained stronger and covered a larger area. This created favourable conditions for ozone destruction. “The annual ozone hole has been forming later in the season in recent years, which tells us the ozone layer is healing,” said Paul Newman, a senior NASA ozone scientist.

How the Ozone Layer Works

The ozone layer is a region high above Earth that acts like a natural sunscreen. It absorbs much of the Sun’s harmful ultraviolet radiation. Its depletion is primarily caused by chemicals such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). These chemicals were once widely used in refrigerators, air conditioners and aerosol products.

When these chemicals reach the upper atmosphere, sunlight releases chlorine and bromine atoms. These atoms break down ozone molecules. Without enough ozone, more harmful ultraviolet radiation reaches Earth’s surface. Therefore, the risk of skin cancer and cataracts increases. Crops and marine ecosystems also face greater damage.

Recovery Remains on Track

Despite this year’s increase, scientists say international efforts are working. The 1987 Montreal Protocol helped phase out many ozone-destroying chemicals. As a result, chlorine levels in Antarctica’s upper atmosphere have fallen by around a third from their 1980s peak. NOAA estimates that without these restrictions, the 2026 ozone hole could have been another 3.5 million square kilometres larger.

Scientists expect the Antarctic ozone hole to recover by the 2070s. However, older ozone-destroying chemicals will continue to linger in the atmosphere for decades. Therefore, continued monitoring remains essential.

Scientists Find Climate Signal That Could Predict El Niño and La Niña a Year Ahead

Scientists have identified a crucial climate signal that could help predict El Niño and La Niña events up to a year in advance. This finding may give governments and communities more time to prepare for extreme weather. A study published in Science Advances shows that the initial state of the Pacific Ocean plays a critical role in how accurately climate models forecast the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) up to 12 months ahead.

ENSO is a recurring climate phenomenon. It involves fluctuations in sea surface temperatures and atmospheric conditions across the tropical Pacific. It alternates between three phases: El Niño, La Niña, and neutral conditions. These phases influence weather patterns worldwide and affect monsoons, droughts, floods, heatwaves, and tropical cyclones. While ENSO events typically peak around December and can usually be predicted about six months in advance, forecasting them a full year ahead has remained difficult.

Researchers from Australia’s national science agency CSIRO and the University of Melbourne analysed more than 7,500 historical ENSO forecasts. These forecasts came from climate models developed by nine countries. They discovered that forecasts started during La Niña conditions consistently performed well even when predicting ENSO conditions a year later. In contrast, forecasts that began when the Pacific was in a neutral state proved considerably less reliable. This suggests that the ocean’s prevailing conditions at the start of a forecast can indicate how much confidence scientists should place in long-range predictions.

“Our study identifies valuable additional information for predicting El Niño and La Niña events well ahead of time,” said Dr Mandy Freund, co-author of the study from the University of Melbourne. She added that the consistency of one-year forecasts beginning during La Niña across all nine models shows that these conditions make the tropical Pacific climate system more predictable over the following year.

Lead author Dr Nandini Ramesh, Senior Research Scientist at CSIRO, said the findings could help scientists identify which long-range forecasts deserve greater confidence. Researchers also found that traditional physics-based climate models struggled when forecasts began during neutral Pacific conditions. However, machine learning and statistical forecasting approaches could offer ways to improve predictions in such situations.

The findings could eventually strengthen early-warning systems. Countries may prepare earlier for droughts, floods, and other weather extremes linked to ENSO. However, researchers cautioned that the approach is not yet ready for operational forecasting systems and requires further testing. The study offers a potentially important advance in climate prediction at a time when improving preparedness for climate extremes is becoming increasingly important.

Central Team Begins Assessment of Cyclone Arnab Damage in Southern Odisha

An eight-member central team on Tuesday started a two-day visit to southern Odisha. The team will assess the damage caused by Cyclone Arnab and the floods that followed last week, news agency PTI reported.

The team will examine the impact on agriculture, infrastructure, roads, power and water resources. It will also review ongoing rescue, relief and rehabilitation operations.

Odisha Chief Secretary Anu Garg said the Inter-Ministerial Central Team is led by Ravi Shankar, Joint Secretary in the Union Ministry of Home Affairs. The team visited Gajapati district on Tuesday. It will travel to Ganjam district on Wednesday.

The Centre sent the team after the Odisha government sought an assessment of the damage. Cyclone Arnab made landfall along the Andhra Pradesh coast on October 28 and triggered floods in the state. The state government reported extensive damage in Ganjam, Gajapati and Kandhamal districts in southern Odisha.

According to PTI, the team members will conduct a detailed assessment on the ground. They will examine the damage across different sectors. Officials from several Union ministries and departments are taking part in the exercise.

Shankar held preliminary discussions with state government officials on Monday. After the talks, the team left for Gajapati in separate groups.

The Odisha government has already completed a preliminary assessment of the damage. Besides Shankar, the team includes representatives from the ministries of agriculture, finance, Jal Shakti, power, road transport and highways, and rural development, as well as the Indian Space Research Organisation.

The central team will complete its two-day assessment in Gajapati and Ganjam. It will cover the damage caused by Cyclone Arnab and the subsequent floods, along with the progress of relief and rehabilitation work.

Indian Railways Cancels Nine Trains Ahead of Cyclone Murasu Landfall

Indian Railways has cancelled nine trains as a precautionary measure ahead of Cyclone Murasu. The severe cyclonic storm is expected to cross the Andhra Pradesh coast between Nellore and Narsapur during the night of November 2 and the early hours of November 3. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast wind speeds of 100-110 kmph, with gusts reaching 120 kmph.

Current Position of the Storm

According to the IMD’s latest bulletin issued on Monday, Cyclone Murasu was centred over the west-central Bay of Bengal at 2:30 pm. It was located near latitude 14.3°N and longitude 80.9°E, approximately 100 km east of Nellore and 120 km southeast of Kavali. The storm moved nearly northwestwards at around 10 kmph during the preceding six hours. The IMD said it is very likely to cross the south Andhra Pradesh coast as a severe cyclonic storm between 11:30 pm on November 2 and 4 am on November 3.

Train Cancellations by South Coast Railway

South Coast Railway (SCoR) has cancelled nine passenger and express services operating across Andhra Pradesh. The step aims to minimise risks and avoid inconvenience to passengers during the cyclone. Passengers travelling on these routes have been advised to check the latest train status and cancellation updates before starting their journeys.

Emergency Preparedness Measures

South Coast Railway has strengthened its emergency preparedness. It has established 24×7 war rooms at its zonal and divisional headquarters to coordinate response and monitor the situation. General Manager Sandeep Mathur reviewed precautionary measures, disaster management plans, and passenger assistance arrangements during a meeting with divisional officials.

The zone has intensified round-the-clock monitoring of vulnerable bridges, tracks, yards, and signalling systems. Special attention is being given to clearing debris from catch-water drains to prevent waterlogging. Patrolmen and watchmen have been deployed at vulnerable locations, while emergency track maintenance materials have been kept ready. Officials have also been directed to maintain close coordination with state government authorities and regularly monitor IMD weather bulletins.

Passenger Assistance Arrangements

South Coast Railway has strengthened passenger assistance at major stations. Help desks have been set up to provide information on train cancellations and travel updates. Additional counters will operate to facilitate refunds for cancelled tickets if required. Catering units have been instructed to maintain adequate food stocks, and alternative power supply arrangements are in place at key locations. Medical teams, first-aid facilities, and ambulances are ready to provide round-the-clock emergency assistance.

Civil Defence personnel and Scouts & Guides volunteers have been alerted. Railway crews have been placed on standby to operate special trains if needed. Emergency response teams are also prepared to assist areas affected by the cyclone.

Continuous Monitoring

The IMD is tracking Cyclone Murasu through Doppler Weather Radars at Chennai, Machilipatnam, and Visakhapatnam. The weather department expects the storm to cross the coast between Nellore and Narsapur, south of Ongole, with sustained winds of 100-110 kmph and gusts up to 120 kmph. Therefore, authorities continue to urge caution as the system approaches landfall.

New Cyclone Intensifies Over Bay of Bengal and Threatens Andhra Pradesh Coast

A new cyclone is gathering strength over the Bay of Bengal. Satellite images from space are capturing its gradual intensification as it moves towards India’s eastern coastline. Less than a week after the remnants of Cyclone Arnab swept across central India, another powerful weather system is now threatening coastal Andhra Pradesh.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a clear warning. The deep depression over the southeast and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal is likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm within the next six hours. It is then expected to strengthen further into a severe cyclonic storm by November 2.

The latest INSAT-3DS thermal infrared satellite imagery, captured between 11:30 am and 11:57 am on November 1, shows a well-organised cloud system swirling over the Bay of Bengal, southeast of the Indian peninsula. The developing system displays a prominent spiral cloud structure. This indicates an organised weather disturbance that is gaining strength over warm ocean waters.

According to the IMD, the deep depression moved west-northwestwards at around 20 kmph during the three hours before its latest update. At 8:30 am on Sunday, November 1, it was centred over the southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal. The system lay approximately 630 km east-southeast of Chennai, 710 km south-southeast of Visakhapatnam and 710 km east-southeast of Nellore.

The IMD expects the system to continue moving west-northwestwards. It is likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm over the southwest and adjoining west-central Bay of Bengal before becoming a severe cyclonic storm on November 2.

The most concerning part of the forecast is the projected landfall along the Andhra Pradesh coastline. The IMD has warned that the severe cyclonic storm is very likely to cross the south Andhra Pradesh coast between Nellore and Narsapur by the morning of November 3. At landfall, the system could pack sustained wind speeds of 100-110 kmph, with gusts reaching 120 kmph.

Such winds can damage houses, uproot trees and disrupt electricity and communication networks. They can also create dangerous conditions for people living along the coast. The approaching system comes at a time when the Bay of Bengal is witnessing another round of intense weather activity following Cyclone Arnab.

For Andhra Pradesh, the next 48 hours will be critical. Meteorologists are tracking the storm’s intensity, movement and eventual landfall location. Satellite observations will remain crucial in monitoring the system as it moves closer to the coastline. Its final intensity and precise landfall location will determine the scale of the impact across coastal districts.

IMD Forecasts Above-Normal Temperatures and Below-Normal Rainfall for Most of India in November

Most parts of India are likely to record above-normal maximum temperatures in November, according to the India Meteorological Department’s monthly forecast reported by news agency Press Trust of India. However, some areas along the Himalayan foothills may experience normal to below-normal maximum temperatures.

Minimum temperatures are also expected to remain above normal across most of the country. Yet many parts of central and eastern India are likely to record normal to below-normal minimum temperatures.

Rainfall Outlook

The IMD said rainfall is likely to be below normal in most parts of India during November. Some areas in central, northwest, and Northeast India may receive normal to above-normal rainfall. The country as a whole is expected to receive 77 per cent of its long-period average rainfall for the month, PTI reported. The long-period average is the average rainfall recorded in a region over a period of 30 to 50 years. India’s average rainfall for November, based on data from 1971 to 2020, is about 29.7 mm.

South Peninsular India is also likely to receive 77 per cent of its long-period average rainfall in November. The region’s average rainfall for the month, based on data from 1971 to 2020, is about 118.7 mm, according to the IMD.

El Nino Conditions

The department said very strong El Nino conditions are currently prevailing over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Forecasts from the Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecast System and other global climate models indicate that these conditions are likely to continue during November and December.

El Nino is one of the three phases of the El Nino Southern Oscillation. This climate phenomenon is linked to changes in sea temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean and fluctuations in the atmosphere above it. El Nino usually has a warming effect on the planet, while its opposite phase, La Nina, generally has a cooling effect. The phenomenon also has a neutral phase.

A very strong El Nino can disrupt normal temperature and rainfall patterns. It can cause severe drought in some regions, heavy rain and flooding in others, and increased heat across large parts of the world. Overall, the IMD expects a warmer and drier-than-normal November across much of India, with some regional exceptions.

Thousands Evacuated in West Bengal After Bhutan Glacial Lake Warning

Authorities safely evacuated thousands of residents in West Bengal’s Alipurduar district since Thursday. They moved people to higher ground and emergency shelter homes. Jalpaiguri district stayed on high alert. Bhutan issued a warning about a possible breach in a glacial lake. The glacial lake outburst flood, or GLOF, involved Shintaphu Lake in Bhutan’s Gasa district. This prompted alerts in several districts of Assam and West Bengal. Officials worried about rising water levels along the Sankosh River in India.

Local authorities acted quickly. They evacuated residents from vulnerable riverbank and forest areas as a precaution. Emergency shelters and disaster response teams stood ready. District officials later confirmed that the situation showed signs of easing. Water levels in the Sankosh River receded. No major damage or casualties occurred so far.

West Bengal Chief Minister Suvendu Adhikari said Friday that everything is completely normal. He noted that the superintendent of police, ministers, MLAs, and the district magistrate stayed on-site through the night until 4 am. They remained in constant contact with the control room. Adhikari added that authorities established contact with all 47 people reported missing earlier. All of them are safe.

Amit Kumar Shaw, Superintendent of Police of Alipurduar, briefed reporters after inspecting the Sankosh River banks and shelter homes. He said there is no cause for panic. Authorities remain prepared for any contingency. Shaw reported that teams safely relocated over 6,000 to 7,000 people. They arranged shelters for more than 4,000 people in local schools. These shelters received essential rations and baby food. Alipurduar police and district authorities worked closely together. They also maintained direct communication with officials in Bhutan. Shaw said they receive updates minute by minute. The latest report shows that the water level upstream has receded slightly. Therefore, officials hope to avoid major flooding, although levels will rise to some extent. He reassured residents of forest villages such as Sankosh, Biri Bari, Volka, and Haldibari. Police and disaster response units will stay on the ground through the night. Shaw acknowledged that leaving home overnight is difficult. However, life and safety remain the top priority. With cooperation, the area can navigate the period safely.

Authorities stepped up monitoring of all rivers flowing from the Bhutan hills after the warning. District teams deployed public address systems across river-adjacent blocks, including Nagrakata and Banarhat in Jalpaiguri. They warned communities to stay on high alert. In Alipurduar, the administration set up relief centres in local schools for over 4,000 displaced people. These centres supplied dry rations, baby food, and relief kits organised by the district magistrate and block development officers. Teams from Civil Defence and the State Disaster Response Force managed relief operations. They stood ready to coordinate further evacuations if necessary.

As the Sankosh River water level receded and stabilised, many people who spent the night in shelters began returning home. Despite the current stability, officials said the region is not entirely out of danger. Dark rain clouds continue to hover over the Dooars region. Intermittent light rainfall falls across the foothills and upper reaches of Bhutan. Additional rain in the Bhutan hills can rapidly swell downriver water levels. Therefore, both district administrations remain on high alert. They continuously monitor weather developments and river discharge. Officials in Jalpaiguri and Alipurduar continue to track real-time hydrological data from Bhutan. They keep response teams ready for any unexpected surge.

Cyclone Arnab Disrupts Howrah-Chennai Train Services in Odisha

Cyclone Arnab has disrupted train services on the Howrah-Chennai route. Nine trains stand cancelled and 14 others have been diverted on Thursday. The disruptions followed after the Bahuda river crossed the danger mark at two railway bridges in Odisha’s Ganjam district, officials said.

Multiple Trains Cancelled and Diverted

The Vande Bharat Express between Bhubaneswar and Visakhapatnam is among the cancelled services. The Bhubaneswar-Visakhapatnam Intercity Express and the Visakha Express, which connects Bhubaneswar with Secunderabad in Telangana, have also been cancelled. The East Coast Railway (ECoR) confirmed these cancellations.

Train operations have been affected in the Ichchapuram-Jhadupudi section of the Visakhapatnam division. Water levels rose above the danger mark at two bridges along the route. An official said nine trains have been cancelled and 14 others diverted to ensure passenger safety. Railway officials continue to monitor the situation closely. Services will resume once the water level recedes and the section is declared safe for train operations.

Heavy Rainfall Raises River Levels

The East Coast Railway stated that Ganjam district received 550 mm of rainfall due to Cyclone Arnab. This caused the Bahuda river’s water level to rise sharply. Water levels at the Baghalati Dam on the Bahuda river crossed the danger mark after the heavy rainfall. As a result, water levels increased near the railway bridges between Ichchapuram and Jhadupudi. This affected train movement in the section.

Officials have taken precautionary measures to protect passengers. Several trains operating on the Howrah-Chennai route have been diverted.

Support Arranged for Affected Passengers

Passengers remain stranded at different locations because of the disruption. Railway authorities have arranged food and drinking water for them. Additional personnel have also been deployed to guide passengers, address their concerns, and provide assistance, the East Coast Railway said.

Train services in the affected section will resume after water levels recede. Railway officials will first confirm that the tracks and bridges are safe for operations.