India’s southwest monsoon may end earlier than usual this year. Extended-range weather models show a sharp drop in rainfall after the first week or two of September.

The next four weeks look disappointing for most rain-dependent areas. East and Northeast India may still receive rain during the coming two weeks. Meanwhile, the rest of the country could see weaker monsoon activity as September continues.

Models point to a significant rainfall reduction after 5 to 10 September. The weakening is likely to last through the second half of the month. As a result, the monsoon could start withdrawing from extreme northwest India between 10 and 20 September.

This change would mark a clear shift. Active monsoon conditions would give way to a much drier pattern.

For now, the main rain-bearing systems remain over East and Northeast India. Those regions may continue to get moisture and showers. Elsewhere, rainfall is expected to turn patchy.

September normally supplies important late-season rain. Many areas rely on it to make up for earlier shortages. A long dry spell during the month could therefore lower the overall seasonal rainfall total.

The southwest monsoon usually begins its retreat from northwest India first. It then moves across the rest of the country. Withdrawal requires more than a few dry days. It needs a lasting drop in rain-bearing conditions and a change in the larger monsoon circulation.

Current model outlooks suggest this transition may start over extreme northwest India in mid-September.

However, weather models keep updating. A new low-pressure system or a shift in atmospheric patterns could still change the picture.

For now the signal remains consistent. India may have only a couple of weeks of useful monsoon rain left before September becomes much drier and the annual withdrawal begins.

Chandigarh Struggles Again as Heavy Rain Floods City

An evening downpour on Tuesday turned Chandigarh’s roads into streams. Vehicles crawled through knee‑deep water, and commuters were stranded in massive traffic jams.

From Sector 17 and 22 to Hallomajra, the city’s infrastructure buckled under two hours of intense rain. Even hours later, many roads, parking lots, and homes remained submerged.

Traffic Chaos

Madhya Marg near Sector 26 saw a portion of the road cave in. Uprooted trees and broken branches narrowed lanes further. Commuters faced hours of gridlock, with two‑wheelers struggling against potholes and hidden manholes. Residents complained about the absence of traffic police at key junctions.

Homes and Markets Hit

Water entered shops, basements, and homes across several sectors. Sector 22’s busy market was flooded, disrupting business activity. Shopkeepers used boards and rags to block water, but customers stayed away. Parks and residential areas also remained inundated.

Fallen Trees Add to Trouble

Heavy branches blocked roads, raising concerns about delays for ambulances and emergency services. Residents warned that congested stretches could prove dangerous during crises.

Familiar Monsoon Failure

The flooding once again exposed weaknesses in the city’s drainage system. Despite annual pre‑monsoon cleaning drives, known waterlogging hotspots flooded as usual. Residents demanded accountability, saying heavy rain can no longer be treated as an “unexpected” event.

Official Response

A Municipal Corporation official admitted that intense rainfall strains the ageing drainage network. They claimed routine cleaning helps water recede faster and said upgrades are underway. Yet, by late evening, many parts of Chandigarh were still waterlogged.

The India Meteorological Department has issued alerts for several northern states. Active monsoon conditions currently affect the region. Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan and Muzaffarabad face heavy rain alerts from August 18 to August 20. Neighbouring Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand can expect continued heavy rainfall until August 23.

Delhi-NCR, Punjab, Haryana and Chandigarh will see peak rainfall on August 21 and August 22. These spells may cause urban flooding. Morning commuting could also become difficult.

Heavy rain in eastern Uttar Pradesh prompted district authorities to suspend physical classes. Government and private schools from classes 1 to 12 remain closed on Tuesday. Western Uttar Pradesh will receive heavy showers on August 18. A brief break is likely on August 19 and 20. In contrast, eastern Uttar Pradesh will experience heavy to very heavy rain until August 21.

Rain is also spreading across central India. Western Madhya Pradesh will see scattered showers until August 21. Eastern Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh will receive prolonged rain until August 23. Vidarbha faces extended spells from August 21 to August 23.

The IMD has advised fishermen to stay ashore. Rough seas and strong winds pose risks. The warning covers the Arabian Sea near Oman, Somalia and the Gujarat coast. It also applies to the Bay of Bengal near West Bengal, Odisha, Bangladesh and northern Andhra Pradesh until August 20.

Disaster management officials have urged residents in low-lying and hilly areas to stay prepared. Possible impacts include uprooted small trees, mudslides, power cuts and waterlogging in cities.

Assam Floods Damage 26,681 Houses, Survey Finds; Total Losses May Cross ₹1,000 Crore

At least 26,681 houses were damaged during the floods that hit Assam in July, Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma said on Monday.

The state is continuing its detailed assessment of the flood damage. So far, officials have completed surveys across several affected areas.

Sarma made the announcement while distributing the second phase of interim financial assistance in Sivasagar, Charaideo, Jorhat and Golaghat districts.

Thousands of Houses and Livestock Affected

The ongoing assessment has revealed extensive damage across rural communities.

According to the state government, 26,681 houses have been identified as damaged. In addition, 18,887 cattle sheds have suffered damage.

The floods have also affected the state’s agricultural and traditional livelihoods. Officials have reported damage to around 41,000 handloom-related materials.

Livestock losses have also been significant. Nearly 5,98,691 domestic animals have reportedly been affected. Meanwhile, authorities have identified around 93,256 farmers who suffered losses.

Survey Process to Continue Into September

The government plans to complete the first phase of the assessment by August 28 or 29.

After that, officials will upload the survey information to a dedicated web portal. Affected families will be able to check whether their names have been included and whether officials have correctly recorded their losses.

The government will then accept complaints and suggestions from affected residents.

A second survey phase is expected to begin around September 10. Officials plan to update the revised information by September 15.

If necessary, the state could also conduct a third round of assessment.

Compensation to Be Paid Through DBT

The Assam government has already started providing immediate interim financial assistance to affected families.

The second phase includes relief of ₹15,000 per eligible affected household.

However, the larger rehabilitation payments will come after the survey process is completed. The government plans to transfer the approved compensation directly into beneficiaries’ bank accounts through Direct Benefit Transfer.

Sarma said officials have so far assessed losses worth around ₹480 crore.

However, the final figure could be considerably higher. The chief minister estimated that total damage could cross ₹1,000 crore after the complete assessment.

Housing Support Could Follow

The state government is also planning additional support for families who lost their homes.

After rehabilitation payments are completed, Assam will approach the central government for new houses for eligible affected families in Sivasagar and Charaideo.

The proposal could involve support under the Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana.

This could provide a longer-term solution for families whose homes were severely damaged or destroyed during the floods.

Assam Faces a Long Recovery

The latest figures highlight the scale of the July floods in Assam. Damage has extended beyond homes and infrastructure to agriculture, livestock and traditional livelihoods.

The government is now focusing on completing the verification process before releasing larger compensation payments.

The next few weeks will therefore be important for affected families. The survey results will determine the extent of compensation and rehabilitation support available to them.

With the government expecting total losses to exceed ₹1,000 crore, Assam’s recovery effort could require substantial financial and administrative support in the months ahead.

A developing El Niño in the tropical Pacific Ocean is set to become the strongest on record for modern humans. Scientists warn that the climate event could reach its peak by November or December. As a result, it may drive global temperatures to levels never seen before.

Climate experts who track ocean temperatures report that sea surface readings across the equatorial Pacific have already entered Super El Niño status. However, researchers feel greater concern over the huge store of heat that still lies beneath the surface. This heat waits to rise in the coming months.

Current data show that subsurface heat content in the tropical Pacific already exceeds the levels recorded during the strong El Niño events of 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16. Those three episodes rank among the most powerful in modern climate records.

Climate analyst Colin McCarthy noted the unusual strength of the current event. “This event is breaking records across multiple indicators, including the pace of warming, projected peak intensity, and the volume of stored ocean heat,” he said.

El Niño forms when unusually warm water spreads across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. This change disrupts normal atmospheric circulation patterns around the world. The shifts can alter rainfall, trigger droughts, cause floods, intensify heatwaves and change tropical cyclone activity across several continents.

Scientists now expect the El Niño to grow stronger through the second half of the year. It will likely reach maximum intensity around November and December. If the forecasts prove accurate, the event could exceed previous record episodes by a clear margin.

The effects will reach far beyond the Pacific. Combined with long-term human-driven climate change, the powerful El Niño could temporarily lift global average temperatures close to 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels in early 2027. Researchers state that such temperatures would place the planet in climate conditions not experienced for hundreds of thousands of years.

Meteorologists also warn that the next 12 to 18 months may bring more extreme weather worldwide. These events could include stronger heatwaves, changes in monsoon patterns, severe droughts in some areas and higher flood risks in others.

Although exact regional impacts remain uncertain, the overall signal stays clear. The world is entering a phase of increased climate volatility. With ocean temperatures still rising and large amounts of heat yet to surface, experts say the coming months could deliver one of the most dramatic tests of Earth’s climate system in recorded history.

Pregnant Woman Carried Across Flooded Stream in Telangana

Heavy rain cut off road access to a remote tribal hamlet in Telangana. A seven-month-pregnant woman needed urgent medical help. Villagers carried her across a swollen stream on a makeshift stretcher.

The incident occurred in Kolam Guda. This tribal habitation lies in Kerameri mandal. An overflowing stream blocked all vehicles from reaching the village. The woman, identified as Kodapa Rameshwari, required medical attention. Her family and local residents quickly stepped in to help.

No ambulance or vehicle could cross the flooded stretch. Villagers therefore placed Kodapa on a traditional stretcher, known as a doli. They then carried her through the fast-flowing water. Several people supported the stretcher and moved carefully across the stream.

The group eventually reached Kerameri Government Hospital. Doctors examined her there. They found no foetal movement and referred her to Asifabad Government Hospital for further care.

The event once again highlighted the challenges faced by remote tribal settlements during the monsoon. Flooded streams often block access to healthcare. Residents noted the absence of all-weather roads and bridges. They depend on makeshift arrangements during emergencies. Locals have urged authorities to improve road connectivity and build proper bridges. This would allow villagers to reach hospitals and essential services safely without crossing swollen water bodies.