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2026 Set to Rank Among Hottest Years as El Niño Strengthens, WMO Says

Global temperatures remain well above pre-industrial levels, and 2026 is likely to finish among the four hottest years on record. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) shared this assessment in its latest State of the Climate Report.

During the first nine months of 2026, global temperatures averaged 1.47°C above the 1850–1900 baseline. This reading is higher than the full-year averages for both 2025 and 2023. As a result, 2026 sits just behind the record heat of 2024.

Strengthening El Niño conditions are expected to push temperatures higher in the final months of the year. The phenomenon has intensified since August. Forecasters now expect it to become one of the strongest on record by December. Therefore, the event could fuel elevated temperatures and extreme weather into 2027.

The WMO released the report on the opening day of the UN climate conference COP31 in Antalya, Türkiye. The findings highlight accelerating global warming and a growing imbalance in Earth’s energy system. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo noted that the past four years were the warmest in the 177-year observational record. Ocean temperatures have also reached record highs for the tenth consecutive year.

Saulo said the ongoing El Niño is forecast to be one of the strongest on record. She added that heat released from the ocean will continue to drive high temperatures and extreme weather into 2027.

According to the report, Earth’s energy imbalance has reached its highest level since systematic monitoring began. The planet is absorbing more energy from the Sun than it releases into space. Greenhouse gas emissions trap additional heat and disrupt the natural climate balance.

Carbon dioxide levels rose 53 percent, from about 278 parts per million in 1750 to 426.8 ppm in 2025. Methane concentrations increased 167 percent, from 729 parts per billion in 1750 to 1,948 ppb in 2025.

Oceans absorb around 90 percent of the excess heat from global warming. The WMO said 2026 is on course to become the tenth consecutive year of record ocean heat. This trend raises long-term concerns for marine ecosystems, weather patterns, and coastal communities.

The report also underlined the growing human and economic costs of climate change. Extreme weather events disrupt livelihoods, threaten food security, deepen poverty, and force displacement in several regions. In Europe, heatwaves, drought, and wildfires contributed to more than 30,000 excess deaths, according to preliminary estimates. In India, an estimated 146.5 million people faced extreme heat during a heatwave in April 2026.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned that the world has entered a new age of climate extremes. He said a strong El Niño is colliding with a planet already heated by human-caused climate change. Climate records continue to fall, and human costs continue to rise.

Guterres urged leaders to cut emissions faster, ensure a fair shift away from fossil fuels, and provide adequate financial support to the most vulnerable countries. He noted that nations contributing the least to global emissions often suffer some of the worst impacts.

COP31 Opens in Antalya as WMO Warns 2026 Could Rank Among Warmest Years

The annual year-ending climate conference opened in Antalya, Turkey, on Monday. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) released its State of the Climate Report on the first day of COP31. The report delivered another clear warning about the steadily worsening climate situation. It stated that 2026 could finish as one of the warmest years on record and almost certainly among the top four.

Temperature Records and El Niño Influence

The average global temperature from January to September this year stood 1.47 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels (the 1850-1900 average). This figure exceeds the full-year averages for 2025 and 2023. It sits only slightly below 2024, which remains the warmest year recorded so far. The final three months of 2026 are unlikely to lower the average. Prevailing El Niño conditions generally warm the planet. Therefore, 2026 is very likely to end as the second-warmest year.

Emissions Continue to Rise

The WMO report also confirmed that greenhouse gas emissions, the main driver of rising temperatures, reached new record levels in 2025. Measurements from key monitoring stations show continued increases in 2026. Despite three decades of global discussions, legal agreements, and resource commitments, the world has not yet begun to reduce its emissions.

Negotiators Face Familiar Limits

Climate negotiators gathered in Antalya for the two-week conference already know this information. Similar assessments have arrived every year and pointed to a steadily worsening situation. However, the negotiators now appear more limited than ever in their ability to produce significant short-term change.

Focus on Implementation and Funding Gaps

COP31 ranks among the more low-key climate conferences in recent years. No major new decisions or outcomes are expected. Most discussions will center on ways to speed up the implementation of previously promised climate actions. These efforts quickly encounter a familiar obstacle—the need for more finance. Nepal’s recent experience illustrates the gap. The country was promised $20 million from the Loss and Damage Fund after devastating flash floods in August. Recovery and reconstruction needs stand at least at $2 billion.

A similar shortfall exists in emissions reductions. The world must cut greenhouse gas emissions by at least 43 percent from 2019 levels by 2030 to retain even a slim chance of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. At the current pace, even a 2 percent reduction appears unlikely. The latest WMO report confirms that emissions continue to rise rather than fall.

Two earlier reports from the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) this year concluded that the 1.5 degrees Celsius target has now moved firmly out of reach. This marked the first such assessment by a scientific body. Previous climate reports had still left a narrow, if unrealistic, window for meeting the goal set in the 2015 Paris Agreement.

Call for Accelerated Action

Simon Stiell, executive secretary of UN Climate Change, said COP31 needed to “supercharge” global efforts. At the same time, he remained realistic about the conference’s limits. “No COP is a silver bullet. No single conference can bridge the chasm between the science and reality. We must deal with the world as it is, not as we might wish it to be. Every recent COP has delivered strides forward. This one must too,” he said.

Turkey’s Voluntary Electrification Initiative

Like previous host countries, Turkey launched several voluntary initiatives to build momentum. The most prominent effort aims to raise electricity’s share of global energy use to at least 30 percent by 2035, up from roughly 20 percent today. Most energy consumption still occurs in non-electric forms such as oil and gas. Cleaner sources like solar, wind, and nuclear produce energy only as electricity. Therefore, processes that currently rely on fossil fuels must shift to electric alternatives.

Turkey has proposed a global coalition to pursue this 30 percent electrification target. The initiative remains voluntary. Countries may join if they choose. It does not emerge from the formal negotiated COP process.

IMD Issues Weather Alert for 20 States as Unsettled Conditions Loom

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a widespread weather alert. The agency forecasts a period of unsettled conditions across 20 states over the coming days. It anticipates a mix of thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds. Isolated heavy rainfall is also expected to impact parts of Northeast India, South India, the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, and the Himalayan region through November 13.

While much of the country prepares for wet weather, the Delhi-NCR region is expected to remain largely dry in the immediate term. According to the latest meteorological data, Delhi, Haryana, and Chandigarh are likely to see only isolated to scattered rainfall activity between November 11 and 13. Similarly, Punjab is expected to experience light, scattered showers during the same period.

Regional Weather Outlook

In the Himalayan belt, the weather remains active. Uttarakhand is bracing for a continuation of its current wet spell until November 11, with another round of precipitation expected on November 13. Himachal Pradesh is also forecast to receive rainfall between November 10 and 13. Meanwhile, Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, and surrounding areas are expected to see an increase in activity, with widespread rainfall and potential snowfall in the Kashmir Valley by November 12.

The southern peninsula remains under an active rainfall spell. Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Karaikal are on alert for isolated heavy rainfall, accompanied by thunderstorms and gusty winds, through November 10. Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam, Rayalaseema, and Telangana are also expecting scattered showers and strong surface winds. In Karnataka, coastal areas will see activity on November 9, while South Interior Karnataka is forecast to experience rain through November 13.

Northeast and Eastern Regions

Northeast India is also facing significant weather shifts. Assam and Meghalaya are under an alert for isolated heavy rainfall on November 11. Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura are expected to receive heavy downpours between November 10 and 11. In East India, the Andaman and Nicobar Islands are set for a period of fairly widespread rainfall through November 13, with isolated heavy showers likely. Other eastern states, including Odisha, West Bengal, Jharkhand, and Bihar, will see varying degrees of scattered rainfall over the next few days.

Conversely, West and Central India are expected to remain largely stable, with no significant weather activity forecast for the coming week. Overall, residents in the affected regions should stay alert for thunderstorms and heavy rain through mid-November.

IMD Forecasts Widespread Rain and Thunderstorms Across Southern India

Residents across southern India should prepare for unsettled weather. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a forecast for widespread rainfall and thunderstorms starting Saturday, November 7. The system will bring significant precipitation along with risks of gusty winds and lightning.

Kerala, Mahe, Lakshadweep, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Karaikal face the strongest impact. These regions can expect fairly widespread to widespread rainfall. Moreover, the IMD has highlighted the chance of isolated heavy downpours in Kerala and Tamil Nadu during this spell. Atmospheric instability will also trigger thunderstorms and lightning across several southern states. Gusty winds may reach 30 to 40 kmph, with occasional peaks at 50 kmph.

Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam will experience strong surface winds alongside scattered showers. Conditions in Kerala, Mahe, and Lakshadweep are likely to remain active through November 8. In contrast, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Karaikal may see stormy weather persist until November 10. Karnataka will also feel the effects. Coastal areas can expect scattered rainfall through November 8, while south interior parts may receive showers until November 10.

Meanwhile, west and central India are expected to stay largely dry with no significant weather activity. However, northwest India will see a shift starting November 8. Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, and Himachal Pradesh are projected to receive showers later in the week. The IMD forecasts a potential increase in intensity by November 11 and 12. In the northeast, isolated to scattered rainfall is likely across Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura. Some areas may encounter heavy rainfall by the middle of next week. Odisha is set for isolated rainfall on Saturday, with further wet spells likely on November 10 and 11.

Delhi’s Air Turns Severe on Same Stations as Last Diwali

Delhi’s air turned “severe”, the worst grade on the government’s pollution scale, at 6am on Friday. It did so on the same 39 monitoring stations the city had last Diwali, an HT analysis of Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB) data shows. The official index averages the past 24 hours, so it smooths out swings and is slow to show a rise this fast. When HT scored each hour on its own, as if that hour’s air held for a full day, every hour since 8pm on Thursday came out “severe” on all 59 of today’s stations. The 10am score was 453 on the 0-500 index, against the official 391. The official figure will move towards it if the air stays this dirty.

The new stations also hold the official figure down. Several of the 20 added since last Diwali read well below the older stations around them. On the 39 stations that reported last Diwali, the 10am figure was 407.

How Bad It Is

At 10am, the typical Delhi station recorded 335 micrograms of PM2.5 per cubic metre of air. That is more than five times India’s limit of 60 for a day’s average. PM2.5 is fine particles small enough to lodge deep in the lungs. That level is well inside CPCB’s “severe” band for PM2.5, which begins at 250. CPCB says air in that band affects healthy people and seriously affects people who already have an illness. Forty-one of Delhi’s 59 stations, about seven in ten, were past that line. The pollution has built up over two still nights. The typical reading more than doubled from Wednesday afternoon to Friday morning, with only a partial clearing on Thursday afternoon.

Major Surge in Farm Fires

Farm fires in Punjab and Haryana are surging late in the afternoon, after the satellite behind the usual count has passed. INSAT-3DS, an Indian satellite that scans the region every half hour, saw its daily count grow more than four and a half times from Sunday to Thursday. It spotted almost all of those fires between 4pm and 6pm. The count usually quoted, which Nasa publishes, comes from a satellite that passes over Punjab once in daylight, at about 2pm. It grew by only about 60% over the same days. By that count this has been a light season. It recorded 184 fires a day in the week to Thursday, close to last year’s 200, half of 2024’s 388, and far below the several thousand a day of 2018-2022.

The two satellites detect fires in different ways, so their growth can be compared but their totals cannot. Nasa’s count is accurate for what it measures: fires burning at about 2pm. Fires lit after the satellite has passed do not show up in it, and they may now be a large and growing share of the burning. Late-afternoon fires grew far faster than the 2pm count.

Wind and Weather Conditions

The wind has been coming from the same direction as the fires. Smoke travels between regions on the transport-level winds, one to three kilometres above the ground. These have blown from the north-west, from Punjab and Haryana, almost without a break since October 31, and have strengthened to about 36 km/h. That wind would carry smoke from the fire belt towards Delhi. The readings cannot show how much of it reached the city.

There has been no wind at ground level to clear the air, and pre-Diwali traffic has jammed the city’s roads for days. Safdarjung reported dead calm through most of Thursday night. Every morning this week, a layer of warmer air a couple of hundred metres up has worked like a lid, keeping the night’s pollution close to the ground. On a typical early-November afternoon, the sun breaks that lid and spreads pollution through about 1,300 metres of air. This week the pollution spread only 600 to 800 metres up, so the same pollution was packed into about half the usual space. Exhaust from the traffic, and the rest of Delhi’s own emissions, build up in that shallow layer.

Friday is Dhanteras and Diwali falls on Sunday. Every reading here was taken before the festivities began. INSAT’s count of Friday afternoon’s fires will be available tonight.

Antarctica Ozone Hole Reaches Seventh-Largest Size, Scientists Cite Weather

The ozone hole over Antarctica grew to its seventh-largest size in 48 years of monitoring this year. The expansion revived concerns about Earth’s protective shield against harmful solar radiation. However, scientists from NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said weather conditions largely drove the unusually large hole. They added that the ozone layer remains on track for long-term recovery.

According to measurements released on November 4, the ozone hole covered an average area of around 25 million square kilometres between September 7 and October 13, 2026. At its peak on September 18, it expanded to approximately 27.1 million square kilometres. This size reached nearly 90 percent of the largest ozone hole ever recorded in 2000.

Weather Drove the Expansion

Scientists attributed this year’s large ozone hole to a powerful polar vortex. This band of strong winds circles Antarctica and traps extremely cold air over the continent. These freezing conditions encourage the formation of special clouds high in the atmosphere. In these clouds, chlorine and bromine released by human-made chemicals trigger reactions that destroy ozone.

This year, weather systems that normally weaken the polar vortex stayed unusually weak during August and September. As a result, the vortex remained stronger and covered a larger area. This created favourable conditions for ozone destruction. “The annual ozone hole has been forming later in the season in recent years, which tells us the ozone layer is healing,” said Paul Newman, a senior NASA ozone scientist.

How the Ozone Layer Works

The ozone layer is a region high above Earth that acts like a natural sunscreen. It absorbs much of the Sun’s harmful ultraviolet radiation. Its depletion is primarily caused by chemicals such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). These chemicals were once widely used in refrigerators, air conditioners and aerosol products.

When these chemicals reach the upper atmosphere, sunlight releases chlorine and bromine atoms. These atoms break down ozone molecules. Without enough ozone, more harmful ultraviolet radiation reaches Earth’s surface. Therefore, the risk of skin cancer and cataracts increases. Crops and marine ecosystems also face greater damage.

Recovery Remains on Track

Despite this year’s increase, scientists say international efforts are working. The 1987 Montreal Protocol helped phase out many ozone-destroying chemicals. As a result, chlorine levels in Antarctica’s upper atmosphere have fallen by around a third from their 1980s peak. NOAA estimates that without these restrictions, the 2026 ozone hole could have been another 3.5 million square kilometres larger.

Scientists expect the Antarctic ozone hole to recover by the 2070s. However, older ozone-destroying chemicals will continue to linger in the atmosphere for decades. Therefore, continued monitoring remains essential.

Scientists Find Climate Signal That Could Predict El Niño and La Niña a Year Ahead

Scientists have identified a crucial climate signal that could help predict El Niño and La Niña events up to a year in advance. This finding may give governments and communities more time to prepare for extreme weather. A study published in Science Advances shows that the initial state of the Pacific Ocean plays a critical role in how accurately climate models forecast the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) up to 12 months ahead.

ENSO is a recurring climate phenomenon. It involves fluctuations in sea surface temperatures and atmospheric conditions across the tropical Pacific. It alternates between three phases: El Niño, La Niña, and neutral conditions. These phases influence weather patterns worldwide and affect monsoons, droughts, floods, heatwaves, and tropical cyclones. While ENSO events typically peak around December and can usually be predicted about six months in advance, forecasting them a full year ahead has remained difficult.

Researchers from Australia’s national science agency CSIRO and the University of Melbourne analysed more than 7,500 historical ENSO forecasts. These forecasts came from climate models developed by nine countries. They discovered that forecasts started during La Niña conditions consistently performed well even when predicting ENSO conditions a year later. In contrast, forecasts that began when the Pacific was in a neutral state proved considerably less reliable. This suggests that the ocean’s prevailing conditions at the start of a forecast can indicate how much confidence scientists should place in long-range predictions.

“Our study identifies valuable additional information for predicting El Niño and La Niña events well ahead of time,” said Dr Mandy Freund, co-author of the study from the University of Melbourne. She added that the consistency of one-year forecasts beginning during La Niña across all nine models shows that these conditions make the tropical Pacific climate system more predictable over the following year.

Lead author Dr Nandini Ramesh, Senior Research Scientist at CSIRO, said the findings could help scientists identify which long-range forecasts deserve greater confidence. Researchers also found that traditional physics-based climate models struggled when forecasts began during neutral Pacific conditions. However, machine learning and statistical forecasting approaches could offer ways to improve predictions in such situations.

The findings could eventually strengthen early-warning systems. Countries may prepare earlier for droughts, floods, and other weather extremes linked to ENSO. However, researchers cautioned that the approach is not yet ready for operational forecasting systems and requires further testing. The study offers a potentially important advance in climate prediction at a time when improving preparedness for climate extremes is becoming increasingly important.

Central Team Begins Assessment of Cyclone Arnab Damage in Southern Odisha

An eight-member central team on Tuesday started a two-day visit to southern Odisha. The team will assess the damage caused by Cyclone Arnab and the floods that followed last week, news agency PTI reported.

The team will examine the impact on agriculture, infrastructure, roads, power and water resources. It will also review ongoing rescue, relief and rehabilitation operations.

Odisha Chief Secretary Anu Garg said the Inter-Ministerial Central Team is led by Ravi Shankar, Joint Secretary in the Union Ministry of Home Affairs. The team visited Gajapati district on Tuesday. It will travel to Ganjam district on Wednesday.

The Centre sent the team after the Odisha government sought an assessment of the damage. Cyclone Arnab made landfall along the Andhra Pradesh coast on October 28 and triggered floods in the state. The state government reported extensive damage in Ganjam, Gajapati and Kandhamal districts in southern Odisha.

According to PTI, the team members will conduct a detailed assessment on the ground. They will examine the damage across different sectors. Officials from several Union ministries and departments are taking part in the exercise.

Shankar held preliminary discussions with state government officials on Monday. After the talks, the team left for Gajapati in separate groups.

The Odisha government has already completed a preliminary assessment of the damage. Besides Shankar, the team includes representatives from the ministries of agriculture, finance, Jal Shakti, power, road transport and highways, and rural development, as well as the Indian Space Research Organisation.

The central team will complete its two-day assessment in Gajapati and Ganjam. It will cover the damage caused by Cyclone Arnab and the subsequent floods, along with the progress of relief and rehabilitation work.

Indian Railways Cancels Nine Trains Ahead of Cyclone Murasu Landfall

Indian Railways has cancelled nine trains as a precautionary measure ahead of Cyclone Murasu. The severe cyclonic storm is expected to cross the Andhra Pradesh coast between Nellore and Narsapur during the night of November 2 and the early hours of November 3. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast wind speeds of 100-110 kmph, with gusts reaching 120 kmph.

Current Position of the Storm

According to the IMD’s latest bulletin issued on Monday, Cyclone Murasu was centred over the west-central Bay of Bengal at 2:30 pm. It was located near latitude 14.3°N and longitude 80.9°E, approximately 100 km east of Nellore and 120 km southeast of Kavali. The storm moved nearly northwestwards at around 10 kmph during the preceding six hours. The IMD said it is very likely to cross the south Andhra Pradesh coast as a severe cyclonic storm between 11:30 pm on November 2 and 4 am on November 3.

Train Cancellations by South Coast Railway

South Coast Railway (SCoR) has cancelled nine passenger and express services operating across Andhra Pradesh. The step aims to minimise risks and avoid inconvenience to passengers during the cyclone. Passengers travelling on these routes have been advised to check the latest train status and cancellation updates before starting their journeys.

Emergency Preparedness Measures

South Coast Railway has strengthened its emergency preparedness. It has established 24×7 war rooms at its zonal and divisional headquarters to coordinate response and monitor the situation. General Manager Sandeep Mathur reviewed precautionary measures, disaster management plans, and passenger assistance arrangements during a meeting with divisional officials.

The zone has intensified round-the-clock monitoring of vulnerable bridges, tracks, yards, and signalling systems. Special attention is being given to clearing debris from catch-water drains to prevent waterlogging. Patrolmen and watchmen have been deployed at vulnerable locations, while emergency track maintenance materials have been kept ready. Officials have also been directed to maintain close coordination with state government authorities and regularly monitor IMD weather bulletins.

Passenger Assistance Arrangements

South Coast Railway has strengthened passenger assistance at major stations. Help desks have been set up to provide information on train cancellations and travel updates. Additional counters will operate to facilitate refunds for cancelled tickets if required. Catering units have been instructed to maintain adequate food stocks, and alternative power supply arrangements are in place at key locations. Medical teams, first-aid facilities, and ambulances are ready to provide round-the-clock emergency assistance.

Civil Defence personnel and Scouts & Guides volunteers have been alerted. Railway crews have been placed on standby to operate special trains if needed. Emergency response teams are also prepared to assist areas affected by the cyclone.

Continuous Monitoring

The IMD is tracking Cyclone Murasu through Doppler Weather Radars at Chennai, Machilipatnam, and Visakhapatnam. The weather department expects the storm to cross the coast between Nellore and Narsapur, south of Ongole, with sustained winds of 100-110 kmph and gusts up to 120 kmph. Therefore, authorities continue to urge caution as the system approaches landfall.

New Cyclone Intensifies Over Bay of Bengal and Threatens Andhra Pradesh Coast

A new cyclone is gathering strength over the Bay of Bengal. Satellite images from space are capturing its gradual intensification as it moves towards India’s eastern coastline. Less than a week after the remnants of Cyclone Arnab swept across central India, another powerful weather system is now threatening coastal Andhra Pradesh.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a clear warning. The deep depression over the southeast and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal is likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm within the next six hours. It is then expected to strengthen further into a severe cyclonic storm by November 2.

The latest INSAT-3DS thermal infrared satellite imagery, captured between 11:30 am and 11:57 am on November 1, shows a well-organised cloud system swirling over the Bay of Bengal, southeast of the Indian peninsula. The developing system displays a prominent spiral cloud structure. This indicates an organised weather disturbance that is gaining strength over warm ocean waters.

According to the IMD, the deep depression moved west-northwestwards at around 20 kmph during the three hours before its latest update. At 8:30 am on Sunday, November 1, it was centred over the southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal. The system lay approximately 630 km east-southeast of Chennai, 710 km south-southeast of Visakhapatnam and 710 km east-southeast of Nellore.

The IMD expects the system to continue moving west-northwestwards. It is likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm over the southwest and adjoining west-central Bay of Bengal before becoming a severe cyclonic storm on November 2.

The most concerning part of the forecast is the projected landfall along the Andhra Pradesh coastline. The IMD has warned that the severe cyclonic storm is very likely to cross the south Andhra Pradesh coast between Nellore and Narsapur by the morning of November 3. At landfall, the system could pack sustained wind speeds of 100-110 kmph, with gusts reaching 120 kmph.

Such winds can damage houses, uproot trees and disrupt electricity and communication networks. They can also create dangerous conditions for people living along the coast. The approaching system comes at a time when the Bay of Bengal is witnessing another round of intense weather activity following Cyclone Arnab.

For Andhra Pradesh, the next 48 hours will be critical. Meteorologists are tracking the storm’s intensity, movement and eventual landfall location. Satellite observations will remain crucial in monitoring the system as it moves closer to the coastline. Its final intensity and precise landfall location will determine the scale of the impact across coastal districts.