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Cyclone Arnab Set to Strengthen and Bring Heavy Rain to Eastern India

Cyclone Arnab is expected to intensify into a very severe cyclonic storm over the Bay of Bengal on Tuesday, October 27. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued warnings for extremely heavy rainfall along coastal Andhra Pradesh. In addition, the system will trigger widespread rain alerts across eastern and central India in the coming days.

The weather system currently lies over the east-central and adjoining west-central Bay of Bengal. It moved westwards at about 15 kmph. The IMD placed the storm near latitude 15.4° North and longitude 88.5° East. This position sits roughly 580 km southeast of Gopalpur and 60 km east-southeast of Visakhapatnam.

Forecast Track and Intensity

The cyclone is very likely to move west-northwestwards. It will strengthen further into a severe cyclonic storm before becoming a very severe cyclonic storm on October 27. Therefore, conditions over the Bay will grow more intense through the day.

The system is forecast to cross the Andhra Pradesh coast between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam, near Yanam, by the evening of October 28. Maximum sustained winds may reach 115-125 kmph, with gusts up to 140 kmph. However, exact timing and strength can shift slightly as the storm approaches land.

Rainfall Warnings by Day

On Tuesday, the IMD expects isolated extremely heavy rainfall over coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam. Heavy to very heavy rain is also likely over Odisha. Thunderstorms may affect coastal Andhra Pradesh and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

The threat expands on Wednesday, October 28. Extremely heavy rain is likely over coastal Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Telangana, and Chhattisgarh. Vidarbha may see very heavy rainfall. Parts of eastern Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, and Gangetic West Bengal could receive heavy showers.

On Thursday, October 29, extremely heavy rainfall is likely over east Uttar Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. East Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, and Odisha may experience very heavy rain. Several other regions could see heavy showers as well.

The IMD has further warned of very heavy rainfall over east Uttar Pradesh and Bihar on October 30. Heavy rain is also likely over parts of eastern and northern India. Moreover, these forecasts call for continued caution across multiple states.

Other Systems Add to the Pattern

A low-pressure area over the southwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining areas near south coastal Tamil Nadu is also influencing conditions. A western disturbance appears as a cyclonic circulation over north Haryana, while another lies over southwest Rajasthan. A fresh western disturbance is likely to affect northwest India from the night of October 27.

In the preceding 24 hours, Tamil Nadu recorded very heavy rainfall. Kerala and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands received heavy rain. Therefore, the developing cyclone and these additional systems are expected to keep several parts of the country on alert through the week.

IMD Issues Cyclone Alert as Very Severe Storm Forms in Bay of Bengal

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a cyclone alert for a very severe cyclonic storm developing in the west-central Bay of Bengal. Heavy rainfall is expected in several states over the next few days. As a result, government agencies have been placed on high alert.

According to the IMD, coastal Andhra Pradesh will receive very heavy rainfall on October 27 and 28. Odisha and Telangana are likely to see similar conditions on October 28. Chhattisgarh is also expected to receive heavy rains on October 28 and 29. In addition, warnings for heavy to very heavy rainfall have been issued for Odisha on October 27 and 29, and for eastern Madhya Pradesh on October 29.

Rainfall Forecast Across South and Central India

In South India, significant rainfall is anticipated in Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal on October 25. Kerala and Mahe are expected to receive heavy showers from October 25 to 27. Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam will face heavy rainfall from October 27 to 29. Meanwhile, Telangana is likely to see storms and lightning on October 28 and 29.

In Central India, western Madhya Pradesh will experience rainfall from October 28 to 31. Eastern Madhya Pradesh is expected to receive rain on October 31. Chhattisgarh and Vidarbha will also see scattered rainfall during this period, with potential thunderstorms and lightning on October 29 and 30.

Residents Advised to Remain Prepared

Residents in the affected areas are advised to stay vigilant and prepared. The developing storm and associated heavy rainfall may lead to severe disruptions in the coming days. Authorities continue to monitor the system closely as it intensifies over the Bay of Bengal.

IMD Warns of Cyclonic Storm Forming Over Bay of Bengal by October 26

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has warned that a well-marked low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal is likely to develop into a cyclonic storm by the morning of October 26. The system is expected to intensify step by step over the next few days and move toward the Andhra Pradesh coast.

System to Strengthen Gradually

According to the IMD’s latest bulletin, the low-pressure area will persist over the same region and intensify into a depression on Saturday. Thereafter, it is very likely to move and strengthen further into a deep depression on October 25. By the morning of October 26, the system is expected to become a cyclonic storm over the west-central Bay of Bengal. It will continue to intensify and reach the west-central Bay of Bengal near the Andhra Pradesh coast around the morning of October 28.

Pre-Cyclone Watch Issued

In response, the IMD has issued a pre-cyclone watch for the Andhra Pradesh and adjoining South Odisha coasts. The weather department has also forecast extremely heavy to heavy rainfall over coastal Andhra Pradesh and Odisha between October 27 and 29.

Next Cyclone to Be Named Arnab

If the system develops into a full cyclonic storm, it will be named Arnab. The name, which means “ocean” in Bengali, was contributed by Bangladesh to the regional tropical cyclone naming list maintained by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the IMD.

Previous System Failed to Intensify

A weather system last month also triggered a cyclone watch but did not intensify into a cyclonic storm. It crossed the Andhra Pradesh-Odisha coast as a deep depression and brought heavy rain. That system had strengthened into a deep depression over the west-central and adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal on September 23.

How IMD Classifies Systems

The IMD classifies low-pressure systems based on their intensity. Over land, it uses the number of closed isobars. A low-pressure area has one closed isobar, a depression has two, and a deep depression has three. A system with four or more closed isobars is classified as a cyclonic storm.

Over the sea, classification depends on maximum sustained wind speed. Winds of 17–27 knots (31–50 kmph) indicate a depression, while 28–33 knots (52–61 kmph) mark a deep depression. Once winds reach 34 knots (63 kmph) or more, the system is classified as a cyclonic storm. Therefore, a low-pressure area does not automatically become a cyclone; it must intensify and cross the prescribed thresholds.

Study Finds Hotter, Drier Climate in Marathwada and West Vidarbha Over Seven Decades

Scientists from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, have found that Marathwada and West Vidarbha have shifted into a hotter, drier climate zone over the past seven decades. At the same time, the tropical monsoon zone has expanded across the Konkan, Goa, coastal Karnataka, and Kerala. The findings appear in a study published in Mausam, IMD’s peer-reviewed journal.

The researchers analysed 70 years of weather records and redrew India’s climate map for successive 30-year periods, from 1951–1980 to 1991–2020. Climate zones depend on temperature and rainfall patterns. In the 1961–1990 period, Marathwada and west Vidarbha lay mostly in the tropical savanna zone, which stays warm year-round with a long dry season. By 1991–2020, however, both regions had moved into the hot semi-arid zone, marked by higher temperatures and lower rainfall. The authors attribute this change mainly to rising daytime and night-time temperatures.

Along the coast, the tropical monsoon zone—the country’s wettest climate type with heavy seasonal rain—has extended further across the Konkan, Goa, coastal Karnataka, and Kerala. This coastal expansion does not appear in the overall figures for central India, where the hot semi-arid zone shrank slightly. As a result, the study’s maps, rather than regional totals, reveal the shifts within Maharashtra.

The opposite changes in Maharashtra’s interior and coastline fit a broader pattern in the study. Rainfall has increased over southern India even as it has declined over the northern plains. Lead author Ananya Karmakar of IMD Pune noted that this year’s drought in Marathwada and Vidarbha is an El Niño drought. She explained that the study does not examine individual seasons. Yet it shows that the region now sits in a hotter, drier climate zone than it did in the 1960s. Therefore, a failed monsoon lands on a climate that has already shifted, and water and farm planning must account for that change.

Maharashtra declared drought in 265 of its 358 talukas on 26 September after the monsoon ended 19 per cent below normal. El Niño, the periodic warming of the Pacific that often weakens India’s monsoon, left the country 12.6 per cent short of normal rainfall. The coast also felt the impact. Goa ended the season 34 per cent below normal, while Kerala and coastal Karnataka finished 28 per cent below normal.

The authors note that climate zone shifts affect which crops suit a region and when farmers should sow them. They recommend close monitoring and the inclusion of these changes in long-term agricultural planning. The study’s records end in 2020, yet the interior area it identifies sits at the centre of this year’s drought.

Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General of Meteorology and a co-author, said that this year’s El Niño has left Maharashtra and much of the west coast well short of rain. He added that such shocks now land on a region whose climate has been changing in two directions. Marathwada and west Vidarbha have become hotter and drier, while the Konkan and the coast to its south have become wetter. He stressed that IMD needs to build this long-term change into its advisories for the state and its farmers.

Researchers also presented the study at Simplifying Science, a programme curated by Asar Social Impact Advisors to improve public understanding of climate science and its impacts across India.

Telangana Faces Sharp Rainfall Deficit in North-East Monsoon So Far

Hyderabad and several other districts in Telangana have recorded a severe rainfall shortfall during the current North-East monsoon season. The deficit has become especially pronounced in October.

The state has received only 3.5 mm of rain in the first 21 days of the month. This stands against a normal of 75.6 mm for the period. As a result, Telangana is running a 95 per cent rainfall deficit so far. Officials link the shortfall partly to the possible influence of El Niño.

October is typically one of the wetter months in the state. However, the sharp drop this year has raised concerns about weather conditions for the rest of the month.

Hyderabad recorded just 2.8 mm of rainfall between October 1 and 21. The city’s normal for the full month is around 114 mm. This puts the deficit at about 97 per cent. For context, Hyderabad received 400.7 mm in October 2020. In contrast, it recorded only 37.1 mm in October 2016.

Meanwhile, twelve districts received no rainfall at all during the first 21 days of October. These include Hanumakonda, Jayashankar Bhupalpally, Jagtial, Karimnagar, Medchal-Malkajgiri, Mancherial, Medak, Nizamabad, Peddapalli, Rajanna Sircilla, Sangareddy, and Siddipet. Several other districts also saw extremely low rainfall compared with their normal levels.

Wanaparthy recorded the highest rainfall among all districts during the period. It received 17.7 mm. Even so, this was 78 per cent below its normal of 82.1 mm. Khammam recorded 13.8 mm against a normal of 94.6 mm. Yadadri-Bhuvanagiri received 13 mm compared with its normal of 84.6 mm.

The ongoing deficit is linked to El Niño. This refers to the abnormal warming of surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. Sea temperatures can rise several degrees Celsius above normal during such events. As a result, atmospheric circulation shifts. These changes disrupt usual rainfall patterns in different parts of the world. Some regions dry out while others receive more rain than normal. The strength and duration of an El Niño event determine how widely it affects agriculture, water supplies, and weather-dependent activities.

Central Pacific Records Extreme Warming as El Niño Intensifies

The central Pacific Ocean is showing an extraordinary warming signal. The latest preliminary reading for the Niño 3.4 region indicates that sea surface temperatures have climbed to a record anomaly of 3.46°C above the 1991-2020 baseline. This reading marks a new daily high in the dataset shown by Climate Reanalyser. Moreover, it adds to concerns about the intensity of the developing 2026-27 El Niño.

What Scientists Are Tracking
The Niño 3.4 region lies in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific. Scientists monitor this area closely to assess El Niño and La Niña conditions. Warmer-than-average waters in the region can alter atmospheric circulation. Therefore, they influence rainfall, temperature, and extreme weather patterns around the world. The latest chart, based on NOAA’s Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature dataset (OISST V2.1), shows daily temperatures approaching or exceeding 30°C in the region during October. The sharp rise stands out against the historical temperature curves and the 1991–2020 climatological average.

Why This Warming Matters
El Niño develops when unusually warm surface waters spread across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. These waters interact with changes in tropical winds and atmospheric circulation. Stronger events can shift the odds towards certain climate extremes. However, their impacts differ by region. NOAA’s October 8 diagnostic discussion reported that the monthly Niño 3.4 anomaly had reached +2.1°C. The agency also noted that El Niño continued to strengthen and that a strong-to-very-strong event was likely through January-March 2027.

Caution on the Daily Reading
The latest daily anomaly should be distinguished from the official operational Niño 3.4 index. A preliminary daily reading from one sea-surface temperature dataset is not directly interchangeable with an official monthly or weekly index calculated using a different methodology. Therefore, the reported +3.46°C figure requires confirmation before it can be described as an official El Niño intensity record.

Potential Global Weather Effects
A powerful El Niño can influence India’s weather. It can also increase the likelihood of heat extremes in several regions and alter rainfall patterns across parts of Africa, Asia, and the Americas. However, no single ocean temperature reading can determine the weather outcome for a particular country. Scientists will closely monitor whether the exceptional daily warming persists and whether it is accompanied by sustained atmospheric changes. The next crucial question is whether this preliminary record signals a broader, sustained intensification of the 2026-27 El Niño.

Delhi Air Quality Worsens as Winter Approaches

October is bringing cooler mornings to Delhi, and concerns about air quality are returning. With the monsoon over and winter ahead, the capital is entering a season that has often left it among the world’s most polluted cities.

Recent Rise in AQI Levels

Delhi’s Air Quality Index rose quickly over the weekend. It moved from 90 on Friday to 159 on Saturday and 187 on Sunday, according to Central Pollution Control Board data. The citywide reading stayed in the moderate category on Sunday. However, dry weather and slower winds are allowing pollutants to build up ahead of winter.

Temperatures have also fallen across Delhi and the National Capital Region after the monsoon withdrew. The minimum temperature in Delhi stood at 17.1 degrees Celsius on Sunday, which was 1.3 degrees below the seasonal average, the India Meteorological Department said.

Elevated Readings at Several Stations

With no rainfall expected over the coming week, pollutant levels may continue to pressure the city’s air quality. Several monitoring stations have already recorded high pollution. ITO reported an AQI of 430 on Sunday, placing it in the severe category.

On Saturday, Anand Vihar recorded an AQI of 348, while Mundka registered 227 and Jahangirpuri reported 212. Chandni Chowk stood at 188, and both Vivek Vihar and Rohini registered 187. Punjabi Bagh reported 171, followed by Narela at 165, CRRI Mathura Road at 158, and Dwarka Sector 8 at 155. On Sunday, 22 monitoring stations across Delhi recorded poor air quality, showing that pollution was spreading to several parts of the city.

October Trend and Contributing Factors

The deterioration has been visible through October. On October 1, the AQI at ITO stood at 132 at 5 pm, while Jahangirpuri recorded 216 and Punjabi Bagh registered 178. Anand Vihar, which often ranks among the city’s more polluted locations, had an AQI of 96 at the same time.

The recent rise follows Friday’s relatively clean reading of 90. The Central Pollution Control Board classifies AQI readings of 101–200 as moderate, 201–300 as poor, 301–400 as very poor, and 401–500 as severe.

Dry weather, lower wind speeds, and emissions from vehicles, road dust, and construction activity are among the immediate factors behind the worsening air quality. Rain helps wash pollutants from the atmosphere, while stronger winds disperse them. As these conditions become less frequent after the monsoon, pollution from everyday activities can stay concentrated closer to the ground.

Seasonal changes can further worsen the situation. As temperatures fall toward winter, lower mixing heights and stagnant winds limit the vertical and horizontal dispersion of pollutants. This allows pollution levels to rise even without a major increase in emissions.

Government Response and Year-to-Date Data

Despite the recent deterioration, Delhi Environment Minister Manjinder Singh Sirsa said on Saturday that the capital had recorded 211 days of good, satisfactory, and moderate air quality so far this year. He described this as the city’s best performance since 2016, excluding the Covid-affected year 2020.

With more than two months remaining in 2026, the number of days with good-to-moderate air quality has already exceeded the full-year totals recorded in several previous years. These included 200 days in 2025, 209 in 2024, 206 in 2023, 159 in 2018, and 110 in 2016. Sirsa also said the number of days with poor, very poor, and severe air quality had declined to 79 during the corresponding period this year, compared with 168 in 2016.

The latest rise in AQI highlights the seasonal challenge facing Delhi as winter approaches. With dry conditions expected to continue, the coming days will be crucial in determining whether pollution levels keep climbing.

Rain Continues Across Several Indian States as October Draws to a Close

October is nearing its end, yet rain is still falling in many parts of the country. The rainy season has not fully withdrawn from several regions. The India Meteorological Department has issued a warning of heavy rain and storms for today in nine states. These states include Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal, Jharkhand, Odisha, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu.

Strong Wind Alert Issued

The Meteorological Department has also warned of strong winds reaching up to 80 kilometers per hour in the affected areas. At the same time, lighter rain is expected in Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Chhattisgarh, and Rajasthan. Rajasthan’s capital, Jaipur, received rain on Sunday. The drop in temperature has brought some relief from the heat.

Rain Alert for Districts in Rajasthan

The department has issued an alert for light rain and strong winds in several districts of Rajasthan. These districts include Jaipur, Banswara, Pratapgarh, Baran, Kota, Bharatpur, Bikaner, Udaipur, Ajmer, and Sriganganagar. Wind speeds of 20 to 30 kilometers per hour are expected during this period.

Temperature Outlook in Jaipur

In Jaipur, the maximum temperature today is expected to reach 32 degrees Celsius. The minimum temperature is forecast to stay around 21 degrees Celsius. Weather in most other districts of Rajasthan is likely to remain dry. Temperatures have already fallen in many parts of the state. Residents are beginning to feel cooler conditions in the mornings and evenings.

The continuing rainfall and temperature drop mark a late extension of the rainy season in parts of India. People in the warned states should remain cautious of heavy rain and strong winds today.

Heavy Rain Batters Chennai as Northeast Monsoon Intensifies, Triggers Flooding

Heavy rainfall pounded Chennai as the northeast monsoon strengthened, causing severe waterlogging and traffic snarls across several parts of the city. The downpour continued through the night into Sunday morning and flooded roads, especially in North Chennai, where residents struggled to commute.

North Chennai absorbed the first intense burst of rain. Areas there recorded 6 cm to 10 cm of rainfall in less than an hour. Videos from news agencies and local residents showed flooded streets and residential localities under heavy showers.

Civic authorities quickly stepped up their response. More than 15,000 sanitation and other civic workers were deployed overnight to clear flooded roads, manage waterlogging, and handle public complaints. The Tamil Nadu State Disaster Response Force sent 100 personnel as a precaution, while additional State and National Disaster Response Force teams stood ready if conditions worsen.

The rainfall followed the onset of the northeast monsoon over Tamil Nadu on October 17, according to the India Meteorological Department. This monsoon, which typically lasts from October to December, supplies most of the state’s annual rainfall. A cyclonic circulation over north Tamil Nadu and coastal Andhra Pradesh, together with a trough from Lakshadweep toward the southwest Bay of Bengal, triggered the showers.

The IMD has issued a yellow alert for the state until October 23. Very heavy rain is expected to continue until October 21. A yellow alert signals rainfall of 6 cm to 11 cm, which can prolong traffic congestion on flooded roads, particularly in low-lying areas.

Meteorologists forecast widespread rainfall across multiple districts, including Chennai, Chengalpattu, Tiruvallur, Kancheepuram, Villupuram, Cuddalore, and several others in the coastal and inland regions. Heavy showers may cause temporary waterlogging, slower traffic, and disruption to daily activities in places with poor drainage.

Residents have been advised to exercise caution. People should avoid crossing flooded roads and stay indoors during thunderstorms. Officials also urged the public to stay away from exposed locations when lightning occurs.

Fresh Snowfall Drops Temperatures in Himachal Pradesh

Fresh snowfall in the high-altitude areas of Himachal Pradesh has caused a sharp drop in minimum temperatures. Keylong in Lahaul-Spiti recorded the state’s lowest minimum temperature at -1.7°C on Friday. Kukumseri followed with a minimum of -1.2°C. Another station in the region recorded 0.1°C. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD) in Shimla, minimum temperatures stayed below normal at a few stations across the state.

During the past 24 hours, light to moderate rainfall occurred at a few places. Isolated areas received light snowfall. Keylong recorded 7 cm of snowfall. Trace snowfall was reported in Bharmour in Chamba district. Kothi recorded the highest rainfall at 3 cm. Jogindernagar, Jot, Kukumseri and Manali each received 2 cm. Tinder recorded 1 cm of rainfall.

Maximum temperatures remained normal across Himachal on Friday. Most weather stations had recorded below-normal temperatures the previous day. According to the IMD, maximum temperatures rose appreciably across the state during the past 24 hours. Una stayed the hottest place in the state with a maximum of 32.8°C. Shimla recorded a maximum of 20.4°C. Dharamshala and Manali recorded 25°C and 19°C respectively.

The IMD expects dry weather across Himachal Pradesh from October 17 to 22. Maximum temperatures are likely to rise by 3-5°C over many parts of the state during the next 24 hours. A further gradual increase of 2-3°C is expected over the subsequent three to four days. Minimum temperatures are also likely to rise gradually by 2-3°C over many parts of the state during the next four to five days. Therefore, colder conditions in higher areas may ease in the coming days.