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Central Pacific Records Extreme Warming as El Niño Intensifies

The central Pacific Ocean is showing an extraordinary warming signal. The latest preliminary reading for the Niño 3.4 region indicates that sea surface temperatures have climbed to a record anomaly of 3.46°C above the 1991-2020 baseline. This reading marks a new daily high in the dataset shown by Climate Reanalyser. Moreover, it adds to concerns about the intensity of the developing 2026-27 El Niño.

What Scientists Are Tracking
The Niño 3.4 region lies in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific. Scientists monitor this area closely to assess El Niño and La Niña conditions. Warmer-than-average waters in the region can alter atmospheric circulation. Therefore, they influence rainfall, temperature, and extreme weather patterns around the world. The latest chart, based on NOAA’s Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature dataset (OISST V2.1), shows daily temperatures approaching or exceeding 30°C in the region during October. The sharp rise stands out against the historical temperature curves and the 1991–2020 climatological average.

Why This Warming Matters
El Niño develops when unusually warm surface waters spread across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. These waters interact with changes in tropical winds and atmospheric circulation. Stronger events can shift the odds towards certain climate extremes. However, their impacts differ by region. NOAA’s October 8 diagnostic discussion reported that the monthly Niño 3.4 anomaly had reached +2.1°C. The agency also noted that El Niño continued to strengthen and that a strong-to-very-strong event was likely through January-March 2027.

Caution on the Daily Reading
The latest daily anomaly should be distinguished from the official operational Niño 3.4 index. A preliminary daily reading from one sea-surface temperature dataset is not directly interchangeable with an official monthly or weekly index calculated using a different methodology. Therefore, the reported +3.46°C figure requires confirmation before it can be described as an official El Niño intensity record.

Potential Global Weather Effects
A powerful El Niño can influence India’s weather. It can also increase the likelihood of heat extremes in several regions and alter rainfall patterns across parts of Africa, Asia, and the Americas. However, no single ocean temperature reading can determine the weather outcome for a particular country. Scientists will closely monitor whether the exceptional daily warming persists and whether it is accompanied by sustained atmospheric changes. The next crucial question is whether this preliminary record signals a broader, sustained intensification of the 2026-27 El Niño.

Delhi Air Quality Worsens as Winter Approaches

October is bringing cooler mornings to Delhi, and concerns about air quality are returning. With the monsoon over and winter ahead, the capital is entering a season that has often left it among the world’s most polluted cities.

Recent Rise in AQI Levels

Delhi’s Air Quality Index rose quickly over the weekend. It moved from 90 on Friday to 159 on Saturday and 187 on Sunday, according to Central Pollution Control Board data. The citywide reading stayed in the moderate category on Sunday. However, dry weather and slower winds are allowing pollutants to build up ahead of winter.

Temperatures have also fallen across Delhi and the National Capital Region after the monsoon withdrew. The minimum temperature in Delhi stood at 17.1 degrees Celsius on Sunday, which was 1.3 degrees below the seasonal average, the India Meteorological Department said.

Elevated Readings at Several Stations

With no rainfall expected over the coming week, pollutant levels may continue to pressure the city’s air quality. Several monitoring stations have already recorded high pollution. ITO reported an AQI of 430 on Sunday, placing it in the severe category.

On Saturday, Anand Vihar recorded an AQI of 348, while Mundka registered 227 and Jahangirpuri reported 212. Chandni Chowk stood at 188, and both Vivek Vihar and Rohini registered 187. Punjabi Bagh reported 171, followed by Narela at 165, CRRI Mathura Road at 158, and Dwarka Sector 8 at 155. On Sunday, 22 monitoring stations across Delhi recorded poor air quality, showing that pollution was spreading to several parts of the city.

October Trend and Contributing Factors

The deterioration has been visible through October. On October 1, the AQI at ITO stood at 132 at 5 pm, while Jahangirpuri recorded 216 and Punjabi Bagh registered 178. Anand Vihar, which often ranks among the city’s more polluted locations, had an AQI of 96 at the same time.

The recent rise follows Friday’s relatively clean reading of 90. The Central Pollution Control Board classifies AQI readings of 101–200 as moderate, 201–300 as poor, 301–400 as very poor, and 401–500 as severe.

Dry weather, lower wind speeds, and emissions from vehicles, road dust, and construction activity are among the immediate factors behind the worsening air quality. Rain helps wash pollutants from the atmosphere, while stronger winds disperse them. As these conditions become less frequent after the monsoon, pollution from everyday activities can stay concentrated closer to the ground.

Seasonal changes can further worsen the situation. As temperatures fall toward winter, lower mixing heights and stagnant winds limit the vertical and horizontal dispersion of pollutants. This allows pollution levels to rise even without a major increase in emissions.

Government Response and Year-to-Date Data

Despite the recent deterioration, Delhi Environment Minister Manjinder Singh Sirsa said on Saturday that the capital had recorded 211 days of good, satisfactory, and moderate air quality so far this year. He described this as the city’s best performance since 2016, excluding the Covid-affected year 2020.

With more than two months remaining in 2026, the number of days with good-to-moderate air quality has already exceeded the full-year totals recorded in several previous years. These included 200 days in 2025, 209 in 2024, 206 in 2023, 159 in 2018, and 110 in 2016. Sirsa also said the number of days with poor, very poor, and severe air quality had declined to 79 during the corresponding period this year, compared with 168 in 2016.

The latest rise in AQI highlights the seasonal challenge facing Delhi as winter approaches. With dry conditions expected to continue, the coming days will be crucial in determining whether pollution levels keep climbing.

Rain Continues Across Several Indian States as October Draws to a Close

October is nearing its end, yet rain is still falling in many parts of the country. The rainy season has not fully withdrawn from several regions. The India Meteorological Department has issued a warning of heavy rain and storms for today in nine states. These states include Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal, Jharkhand, Odisha, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu.

Strong Wind Alert Issued

The Meteorological Department has also warned of strong winds reaching up to 80 kilometers per hour in the affected areas. At the same time, lighter rain is expected in Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Chhattisgarh, and Rajasthan. Rajasthan’s capital, Jaipur, received rain on Sunday. The drop in temperature has brought some relief from the heat.

Rain Alert for Districts in Rajasthan

The department has issued an alert for light rain and strong winds in several districts of Rajasthan. These districts include Jaipur, Banswara, Pratapgarh, Baran, Kota, Bharatpur, Bikaner, Udaipur, Ajmer, and Sriganganagar. Wind speeds of 20 to 30 kilometers per hour are expected during this period.

Temperature Outlook in Jaipur

In Jaipur, the maximum temperature today is expected to reach 32 degrees Celsius. The minimum temperature is forecast to stay around 21 degrees Celsius. Weather in most other districts of Rajasthan is likely to remain dry. Temperatures have already fallen in many parts of the state. Residents are beginning to feel cooler conditions in the mornings and evenings.

The continuing rainfall and temperature drop mark a late extension of the rainy season in parts of India. People in the warned states should remain cautious of heavy rain and strong winds today.

Heavy Rain Batters Chennai as Northeast Monsoon Intensifies, Triggers Flooding

Heavy rainfall pounded Chennai as the northeast monsoon strengthened, causing severe waterlogging and traffic snarls across several parts of the city. The downpour continued through the night into Sunday morning and flooded roads, especially in North Chennai, where residents struggled to commute.

North Chennai absorbed the first intense burst of rain. Areas there recorded 6 cm to 10 cm of rainfall in less than an hour. Videos from news agencies and local residents showed flooded streets and residential localities under heavy showers.

Civic authorities quickly stepped up their response. More than 15,000 sanitation and other civic workers were deployed overnight to clear flooded roads, manage waterlogging, and handle public complaints. The Tamil Nadu State Disaster Response Force sent 100 personnel as a precaution, while additional State and National Disaster Response Force teams stood ready if conditions worsen.

The rainfall followed the onset of the northeast monsoon over Tamil Nadu on October 17, according to the India Meteorological Department. This monsoon, which typically lasts from October to December, supplies most of the state’s annual rainfall. A cyclonic circulation over north Tamil Nadu and coastal Andhra Pradesh, together with a trough from Lakshadweep toward the southwest Bay of Bengal, triggered the showers.

The IMD has issued a yellow alert for the state until October 23. Very heavy rain is expected to continue until October 21. A yellow alert signals rainfall of 6 cm to 11 cm, which can prolong traffic congestion on flooded roads, particularly in low-lying areas.

Meteorologists forecast widespread rainfall across multiple districts, including Chennai, Chengalpattu, Tiruvallur, Kancheepuram, Villupuram, Cuddalore, and several others in the coastal and inland regions. Heavy showers may cause temporary waterlogging, slower traffic, and disruption to daily activities in places with poor drainage.

Residents have been advised to exercise caution. People should avoid crossing flooded roads and stay indoors during thunderstorms. Officials also urged the public to stay away from exposed locations when lightning occurs.

Fresh Snowfall Drops Temperatures in Himachal Pradesh

Fresh snowfall in the high-altitude areas of Himachal Pradesh has caused a sharp drop in minimum temperatures. Keylong in Lahaul-Spiti recorded the state’s lowest minimum temperature at -1.7°C on Friday. Kukumseri followed with a minimum of -1.2°C. Another station in the region recorded 0.1°C. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD) in Shimla, minimum temperatures stayed below normal at a few stations across the state.

During the past 24 hours, light to moderate rainfall occurred at a few places. Isolated areas received light snowfall. Keylong recorded 7 cm of snowfall. Trace snowfall was reported in Bharmour in Chamba district. Kothi recorded the highest rainfall at 3 cm. Jogindernagar, Jot, Kukumseri and Manali each received 2 cm. Tinder recorded 1 cm of rainfall.

Maximum temperatures remained normal across Himachal on Friday. Most weather stations had recorded below-normal temperatures the previous day. According to the IMD, maximum temperatures rose appreciably across the state during the past 24 hours. Una stayed the hottest place in the state with a maximum of 32.8°C. Shimla recorded a maximum of 20.4°C. Dharamshala and Manali recorded 25°C and 19°C respectively.

The IMD expects dry weather across Himachal Pradesh from October 17 to 22. Maximum temperatures are likely to rise by 3-5°C over many parts of the state during the next 24 hours. A further gradual increase of 2-3°C is expected over the subsequent three to four days. Minimum temperatures are also likely to rise gradually by 2-3°C over many parts of the state during the next four to five days. Therefore, colder conditions in higher areas may ease in the coming days.

Pune Considers Water Allocation Cuts as Drought Assessments Near Completion

Crop-damage assessments in Pune district’s 10 drought-affected talukas are about 80% complete. The city administration is therefore considering a 20% reduction in water allocation from the Khadakwasla reservoir system. It is also evaluating a 10% reduction for areas served by the Pavana system. Concerns over water availability continue to grow.

The proposed reductions would come on top of Pune’s weekly Thursday water supply shutdown. This shutdown took effect on October 15. It reflects worries about water supplies in the months ahead.

Ten talukas in Pune district have been declared drought-affected. This has happened despite rainfall remaining close to the seasonal average. The administration is assessing agricultural losses. It is also stepping up measures to secure drinking water supplies in vulnerable rural areas.

Maharashtra has expanded the number of drought-affected talukas across the state to 305. In Pune district, Junnar and Ambegaon have been added to the eight previously identified talukas. These include Baramati, Shirur, Daund, Indapur, Purandar, Khed, Bhor and Rajgad.

The drought declarations reflect uneven monsoon rainfall. They also point to prolonged dry spells during critical crop-growth periods, falling groundwater levels and mounting pressure on agricultural production.

Pune district has recorded around 819 mm of rainfall. This equals approximately 95% of its normal seasonal precipitation. However, the near-normal aggregate has not prevented water stress. It highlights the impact of rainfall distribution and extended dry spells on crops and local water availability.

The district administration has arranged tanker supplies for five villages and 53 hamlets. These supplies benefit around 18,650 residents, particularly in Baramati, Daund and Indapur. Authorities have also approved 294 new borewell schemes. They have approved repairs to 611 existing borewells to strengthen access to drinking water in rural areas.

The impact is also being felt in the agricultural sector. Farmers report damage to sugarcane, maize and fodder crops as wells and borewells run low. Crop-loss reports have covered around 2.37 lakh farmer accounts. Meanwhile, the state has announced initial assistance of Rs 5,000 for eligible farmers before Diwali.

Pune Collector Jitendra Dudi has prohibited the transportation and sale of green and dry fodder outside the district. This move aims to safeguard supplies for local livestock.

With water planning extending through August 2027, the administration is prioritising drinking water. It is also preparing scarcity-management measures for the coming rabi season. The proposed reductions in water allocation underline the growing pressure to balance urban household requirements, agricultural demand and limited water resources.

Northeast Monsoon Arrives Early Over Southern Peninsular India

The India Meteorological Department declared the onset of the northeast monsoon over southern peninsular India on Thursday. The arrival came earlier than the normal date of around October 20. Heightened rainfall is expected along with gusty winds, thunder, and lightning. These conditions will affect Kerala, coastal and southern Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Mahe, Karaikal, and the coastal belt of Andhra Pradesh through October 18.

The northeast monsoon is also known as the winter monsoon. It typically lasts from October to December. It influences Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, Yanam, Rayalaseema, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, Mahe, and south interior Karnataka. Tamil Nadu receives nearly half of its annual rainfall during this season.

Earlier this month the Met department released its northeast monsoon forecast. It predicted normal rainfall at 88 percent of the long-period average of 334.1 mm based on 1971-2020 data. A cyclonic circulation currently prevails over southern Tamil Nadu. It will further contribute to intense rainfall in the region.

Thursday also marked the complete withdrawal of the southwest monsoon. This year’s seasonal rainfall ended 13 percent below normal. Intensifying El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean primarily drove the deficit. As a result, 2026 became the fourth driest monsoon since 2001. The early northeast monsoon onset now shifts attention to rainfall patterns across southern India in the coming weeks.

Maharashtra Cabinet Adds 40 Talukas to Drought List and Approves ₹5,000 Advance for Farmers

The Maharashtra Cabinet has approved the addition of 40 more talukas to the drought-hit list, raising the total to 305. Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis announced the decision on Wednesday. He also said each farmer will receive a ₹5,000 advance before Diwali as a relief measure.

Cabinet Decisions on Drought Relief

Fadnavis stated that drought had already been declared in 265 talukas. Demands from various areas led the Cabinet to review reports and include 40 additional talukas. He cited the worsening drought situation and confirmed that the ₹5,000 advance will be credited to farmers’ bank accounts before Diwali. The government is implementing a farm loan waiver scheme and has directed banks and credit societies not to initiate recovery from farmers.

Fadnavis noted that the number of water tankers is increasing. Water levels in Marathwada have dropped by three metres, and the water crisis is particularly severe in that region. The government has ordered GPS tracking of water tankers to monitor their movement and ensure proper distribution.

Fodder and Crop Losses

The Cabinet reviewed the fodder situation, which has become a major concern. The government will procure fodder at an assured price and encourage farmers to cultivate it to ensure adequate supply for livestock. An 11-member central inter-ministerial team toured drought-affected areas in Maharashtra last week. The team assessed the severity of the situation and assured the state of maximum possible financial assistance from the Centre. Maharashtra is expected to submit a fresh proposal seeking higher relief rates under the National Disaster Response Fund.

On Sunday, Fadnavis met the central team and highlighted the unprecedented nature of the drought. He said both kharif and rabi crops suffered extensive damage, leaving farmers with little scope to recover losses through summer cultivation. Assistance is being planned through employment generation and food security schemes.

Relief Package and Assessments

On October 7, Fadnavis met Union Home Minister Amit Shah and submitted an interim proposal for a ₹17,500-crore relief package. The proposal included ₹13,000 crore for crop losses and ₹4,500 crore for fodder management. The remaining components, including drinking water supply and the employment guarantee scheme, are expected to be added to the final proposal, which could raise the overall demand substantially.

Crop loss assessments have been completed in 75 percent of the 32,927 villages identified as drought-affected. State government figures show crops over 14.93 million hectares have been damaged due to water stress, affecting 14.1 million farmers. Under NDRF norms introduced in 2023, compensation for crop loss ranges from ₹7,500 to ₹22,000 per hectare depending on the crop category. The state government is expected to seek higher compensation.

Drinking water scarcity and fodder availability remain among the biggest challenges. Fadnavis said last week that existing fodder stock would last only 90 to 120 days. The state has prioritised drinking water supply, especially in villages where sources have dried up. Water has been reserved for drinking purposes until August 2027, with separate provisions for people and livestock. The government also plans desilting, repairs, and rejuvenation of water storage structures under central and state schemes.

Kukumseri Records Himachal’s Lowest Temperature at -0.4°C as Cold Wave Intensifies

Kukumseri in Himachal Pradesh’s tribal district of Lahaul-Spiti recorded the state’s lowest minimum temperature at -0.4°C on Monday. Snowfall in higher reaches and mountain peaks triggered a sharp drop in temperatures across the hill state. Keylong registered a minimum of 0.7°C, while Tabo recorded 1.4°C.

According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), minimum temperatures fell by 2-5°C at several stations over the past 24 hours. Many locations stayed 2-4°C below normal. Shimla, Bhuntar, Nahan, Kangra, Keylong, Manali, and Palampur were among the places that logged below-normal readings.

IMD officials expect minimum temperatures to rise by 2-3°C across many parts of the state over the next 48 hours. They are then likely to fall again by 2-4°C over the following two to three days. Maximum temperatures are also projected to climb appreciably by 3-6°C in the next 48 hours before declining by 2-5°C thereafter.

Rain and Snowfall Forecast

The IMD has forecast rain or snowfall in several parts of Himachal Pradesh until October 17. Light to moderate precipitation is likely at a few places on October 13. Many places are expected to receive light to moderate rain or snow on October 14 and 15.

A yellow alert for thunderstorms and lightning has been issued for October 13 in Chamba, Kangra, Kullu, Mandi, and Shimla. Similar alerts cover Una, Bilaspur, Kangra, Kullu, Mandi, and Shimla on October 14, and a wider set of districts including Una, Bilaspur, Hamirpur, Chamba, Kangra, Kullu, Mandi, Shimla, Solan, and Sirmaur on October 15.

On Monday, average maximum temperatures across the state remained normal after a day of below-normal readings at most stations. Una was the hottest, recording 32.2°C. Shimla logged 21.4°C, while Dharamshala and Manali recorded 26°C and 20.2°C respectively. The combination of recent snowfall and shifting weather patterns is keeping temperatures volatile across the state.

India Records Weakest Monsoon in Over a Decade as El Niño Drives Drought Conditions

India faced its weakest monsoon in nearly two decades this year. Several states reported drought conditions. The southwest monsoon ended 13% below the long-period average as the El Niño impact continued to grow. As a result, rainfall shortfalls affected crops, water levels, and agricultural planning across multiple regions.

El Niño and Global Risks

El Niño can bring drought to some regions and severe flooding to others. In some cases, both occur. These extremes damage crops, livestock, and infrastructure. Consequently, food production falls and prices rise. Food becomes less affordable, especially for smallholder farmers and pastoralists who rely on rainfall. When combined with existing pressures such as conflict, these climate shocks can quickly increase hunger, the World Food Program warned in a recent analysis. According to the World Meteorological Organization, El Niño conditions are expected to strengthen through 2026 and continue into 2027. The ongoing super El Niño may become the strongest on record since 1950. Meteorologist Ben Noll also noted that around 3 billion people worldwide could experience unusually high temperatures till the end of this year. He added that the record-breaking El Niño would peak higher because of the planet’s warming trend, with a global warming boost of around 0.65°C.

Monsoon Performance and Regional Impact

India recorded a 13% monsoon rainfall deficit. Rainfall stayed below normal in some regions, including South India and the northeastern states. However, central and northwest India received rainfall within the normal range, IMD scientist Shashikant said last week. Data from the weather department shows rainfall over the country between June and September reached 87% of its long-period average in 2026. Summer monsoon rainfall totalled 759.4 mm — the fourth lowest since 2001 and the 13th lowest since 1901. Therefore, the season ranks among the weakest in recent decades.

Adjusted Food Production Targets

The central government lowered its food production target in late September. It aimed to avoid water-intensive crops in areas that received low rainfall. Union Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan announced that crops such as pulses and oilseeds would be cultivated in such regions. Against the target of 362.60 million tonnes, production reached 376.56 million tonnes during 2025-26. In view of the El Niño situation, the production target has been fixed at 373.93 million tonnes for 2026-27, which includes a Rabi target of 177.72 million tonnes. The Agriculture Minister assured that there was no shortage of fertilisers for the ensuing Rabi season. There had reportedly been a 1% decrease in the area sown, with paddy seeing the biggest dip. Meanwhile, the area under pulses, oilseeds, and coarse cereals increased.

Drought Declarations Across States

Karnataka became the first state to declare drought conditions. It announced on August 27 that 101 taluks had been affected for the Kharif season. The tally hit 217 out of 240 taluks by October 2 as a Central government team visited to assess the damage. Deputy Chief Minister G Parameshwara said farmers faced acute drought, drinking water problems, and crop failure. Nearly Rs 46,000 crore of crop loss was estimated. Several other states also declared drought conditions. Maharashtra declared drought in 265 of its 358 talukas on September 25. Andhra Pradesh joined on October 2, declaring 388 mandals across 21 out of 28 districts as drought-affected. Telangana and Rajasthan governments are also assessing drought-hit areas.

Government Drought-Proofing Measures

The Indian government has run several schemes over the years for drought proofing, water conservation, and agricultural resilience. The VB-G RAM G Act replaced the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme earlier this year. A Central share of Rs 95,692.31 crore has been provided for the Viksit Bharat-Guarantee for Rozgar and Ajeevika Mission (Gramin) for FY27. It supports water security measures such as farm ponds, check dams, and tree plantations. Millions of water-conservation assets were also created under MGNREGA. More than 68,000 reservoirs have been constructed or rejuvenated under Mission Amrit Sarovar. Around 900,000 water-harvesting structures were created or rejuvenated under watershed programmes over the past 12 years. Under Jal Sanchay Jan Bhagidari, at least one million groundwater recharge and over 2.7 million artificial recharge structures have been created. The second phase launched in June 2025 has already exceeded targets.

Ongoing Water Stress

According to the India Drought Monitor, around 52.5% of the country was under dry or drought conditions by mid-September. India extracts around 247 billion cubic metres of groundwater every year, making it the world’s largest consumer. Agriculture accounts for up to 90% of all water used in India. Rice, wheat, and sugarcane take nearly 80% of irrigation water. The El Niño conditions prevalent throughout 2026 have worsened the water stress. As a result, the government has stepped in with adjusted targets and continued support measures. Overall, the weak monsoon highlights structural vulnerabilities that require sustained focus on water management and crop diversification.