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Weak, Uneven Monsoon Threatens Kharif Yields

The June–September monsoon is ending weak. Rainfall is set to stay below 90% of the long-period average. The rain has also been uneven. Experts and trade sources say yields of paddy, pulses, and oilseeds may suffer.

Sown area is not the main shock. Kharif acreage is only slightly below last year. Last year’s output hit a record 176 million tonnes after two strong monsoons. This year the worry is growth at flowering, not the first sowing.

Tur, soybean, maize, and paddy are entering that sensitive stage. Maharashtra and Karnataka are major tur and soybean states. Rainfall there is short by 18% and 30%. Intra-state gaps are large as well. Both governments have declared drought in several taluks. Sugarcane yields in those states may also fall.

The countrywide deficit stood at 11.9% below the benchmark through Sunday. Akshay Deoras of the University of Reading said a rapid withdrawal is now likely. He put the final shortfall near 12%. He said El Niño weighed on the season. A helpful positive Indian Ocean Dipole did not arrive.

The map is uneven. Central India received normal rain. Northwest India was 6.3% below normal. East and northeast India were 24.5% short. South peninsular India was 23.4% short. Of about 740 districts, 309, or 42%, have had deficient or large-deficient rain. Another 424 districts, or more than 57%, have had normal to large-excess rain.

Maharashtra has felt the hit hardest in places. After poor rain in Marathwada and Vidarbha, the state declared drought in 265 of 358 taluks. That is 74% of the state. Agriculture minister Dattatray Bharne said farmers face losses in soybean, cotton, maize, jowar, bajra, paddy, tur, moong, and urad. Districts have been told to start damage surveys.

Karnataka added 23 more taluks after a field check. The state’s drought tally is now 124 taluks. Southern India remains under strain. Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh are about 23% below normal. Low reservoir levels have also limited farm work. Tur and paddy could suffer there.

Crisil Intelligence expects kharif acreage to be 0–1% lower year on year. The agriculture ministry put total sown area at 109.49 million hectares, 1.2% below last year. That total covers paddy, pulses, oilseeds, cotton, sugarcane, and coarse cereals.

The season itself was choppy. June rain was 36% below the benchmark. July recovered to 1% above the long-period average and lifted sowing. August was uneven again and 16.3% below normal. Every region except central India’s core monsoon zone was deficient that month.

IMD has forecast September rain below 91% of the benchmark. The agriculture ministry is still judging production. It will hold a national rabi conference on Monday with state departments.

In May, IMD cut its June–September outlook to 90% plus or minus 4% of the long-period average, from 92% in April. This season may be the weakest since 2014. Earlier deficient years include 2002, 2009, 2014, and 2015.

IMD Says Monsoon Withdrawal May Pause for a Week

The southwest monsoon may halt its retreat. Fresh rain is likely across central, eastern, and northern India. The system has already left Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, most of Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, and Gujarat. Further withdrawal may wait about a week. Active weather systems are still producing rain.

A deep depression has moved inland after crossing the Odisha coast. The India Meteorological Department says it should weaken as it crosses Chhattisgarh, east Madhya Pradesh, and Uttar Pradesh. Heavy rain is likely over the next four days in Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Uttar Pradesh. Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, and Telangana may also see showers and thunder.

The first week of October could change the pattern. IMD’s extended outlook says conditions may then favour withdrawal from the rest of northwest, central, and east India. A western disturbance is also likely to affect northwest India around that time.

From October 1 to 7, light to moderate rain may fall over many parts of the western Himalayan region. The Northeast, east, central, and peninsular India may get rain as well. IMD also says the next phase of withdrawal could cover northwest India, south interior Karnataka, and Kerala once conditions allow.

The national rainfall outlook for that week is below normal. Some belts should still receive spells, including the Northeast, the east, and the western Himalayas.

Final withdrawal is not expected before October 1. IMD says the large-scale wind pattern must first shift away from the present southwesterly regime. Until then, several states should stay prepared for more rain.

ISRO Image Shows a Sharp Cloud Split Across India

India’s weather now looks split from space. A new ISRO satellite image shows thick clouds over the east and south. Meanwhile, large parts of the west and northwest stay relatively clear.

INSAT-3DS captured the scene on Friday, September 25. The satellite used its thermal infrared channel at 10.83 micrometres. That view maps cloud cover across India and nearby countries.

A broad, bright cloud mass stands out first. It stretches from the Bay of Bengal into eastern and northeastern India. Extra cloud bands also sit over the southern peninsula and nearby seas. In contrast, western and northwestern India look far more open. The divide appears sharp in a single frame.

The timing matters. The southwest monsoon is now withdrawing over some regions. At the same time, other atmospheric systems still feed rain elsewhere. Moisture-laden winds and low-pressure zones can build clouds over the east and the Bay of Bengal. However, one satellite image cannot name the exact system behind the pattern.

INSAT-3DS belongs to India’s meteorological satellite programme. It tracks clouds, temperature, humidity, and other weather signals. Its thermal infrared sensor reads radiation from Earth and the air. As a result, meteorologists can watch cloud patterns even at night.

The India Meteorological Department uses these observations. Forecasters rely on them to monitor severe weather and track moving systems. This latest image shows how quickly conditions can change across the country. Different air masses can produce two weather stories at once.

Deep Depression Crosses Andhra Coast Near Kalingapatnam, Heavy Rain Likely

A deep depression over the Bay of Bengal made landfall on the Andhra Pradesh coast late Wednesday night. The India Meteorological Department says the system will keep moving inland. Intensity should hold through Thursday evening. Weakening is then expected by Friday night.

The weather office issued an update around 7:30 am on Thursday. The system lay over the Andhra coast and had drifted slowly west-northwest at about 3 km per hour in the previous six hours. It crossed close to southwest of Kalingapatnam between 11 pm on 23 September and 1 am on 24 September. Maximum sustained winds stood at 55–65 km per hour and gusted to 75 km per hour.

By 5:30 am Thursday the centre was about 50 km west of Kalingapatnam, 80 km north-northeast of Visakhapatnam and 170 km southwest of Gopalpur in Odisha. Later bulletins placed it over north coastal Andhra Pradesh and adjoining south Odisha. The IMD expects a northwestward track at first. Intensity as a deep depression should last about 12 hours. The system is then likely to turn north-northwest and weaken gradually over the next day.

On the IMD scale a deep depression sits above a depression and below a cyclone. Three-minute sustained winds fall between 52 and 61 km per hour. Officials have already said the system will not become a cyclone. Intense local showers and gusty winds up to 75 km per hour are still expected through Thursday.

Skymet’s Mahesh Palawat said moisture from the system could reach northwest India by the weekend. Easterly winds may bring some rain to Delhi-NCR on Saturday and Sunday even after monsoon withdrawal. Residents in coastal Andhra and south Odisha should watch local warnings for waterlogging and strong wind.

Deep Depression to Cross Near Kalingapatnam Tonight IMD Says

A deep depression over the Bay of Bengal is moving toward the Odisha–Andhra Pradesh coast. The India Meteorological Department says it is likely to cross near Kalingapatnam by the night of September 23. Heavy to very heavy rain is expected in several districts of both states.

The system intensified over the west-central and adjoining northwest Bay. IMD said it had been moving west at about 7 km/h. A later bulletin placed the centre near 18.0°N and 84.6°E at 8:30am IST on September 23, about 60 km southeast of Kalingapatnam.

IMD expects a west-northwest path. Landfall is forecast between Visakhapatnam and Gopalpur, close to Kalingapatnam, while the system is still a deep depression.

Odisha is on alert. A red warning for September 23 covers Gajapati, Ganjam, Rayagada, and Koraput. Heavy to very heavy rain is likely at a few places. Extremely heavy rain is possible at one or two spots. Thunderstorms, lightning, and gusts of 50–60 km/h may occur in isolated areas.

An orange alert covers Kalahandi, Nabarangpur, Nayagarh, Malkangiri, Puri, and Kandhamal. Very heavy rain is likely at one or two places. Isolated thunderstorms and similar gusts are also forecast.

Andhra Pradesh has matching warnings. A red alert covers Srikakulam, Parvathipuram Manyam, and Vizianagaram. An orange alert covers Visakhapatnam, Anakapalli, and Alluri Sitharama Raju.

Isolated parts of coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam may see heavy to very heavy rain on Wednesday. Extremely heavy showers are also possible. Thunderstorms with lightning are likely in parts of Rayalaseema. Coastal winds may reach 50–60 km/h. Isolated Rayalaseema winds may reach 40–50 km/h.

IMD says isolated heavy rain may continue over coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam on Thursday and Friday. Fishermen have been advised to stay off the sea while the system is near the coast.

Hurricane Polo Reaches Category 4 Off Mexico’s Pacific Coast

Hurricane Polo has grown into a Category 4 storm in the eastern Pacific. Satellite images show a tight spiral and a forming eye. The system is moving off southwestern Mexico.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center said Polo’s maximum sustained winds reached 215 kmph late Monday, September 21. On the Saffir-Simpson scale, Category 4 covers 130 to 156 mph. Category 5 starts at 157 mph.

The storm now has a compact core. Deep thunderstorms wrap around the centre. An eye is becoming visible from space.

Warm ocean water, plentiful moisture, and weak wind shear are helping Polo strengthen quickly. Forecasters said it could intensify further. It may reach Category 5 on Tuesday or Wednesday. Peak winds near 160 mph are possible.

Even so, Polo is expected to stay at sea. It was drifting slowly east-southeast. A sharp turn toward the northwest and west-northwest is then likely. That path could keep the strongest core roughly parallel to Mexico’s coast.

Offshore track does not remove all risk. Officials issued a Tropical Storm Watch for parts of the southwestern coast. Heavy rain is likely in Guerrero and Michoacán. Intense downpours can cause dangerous floods and mudslides, especially on steep slopes.

Polo’s jump in strength stood out. On Monday morning, winds were only about 65 mph. Hours later, aircraft and satellite data showed a much better organised and stronger storm.

The centre remained hundreds of kilometres south of Manzanillo and Zihuatanejo. The fiercest winds therefore stayed over water. Forecasters continue to watch small shifts in track. Those shifts could change rainfall and wind along the Pacific coast.

Residents in watch areas should follow local alerts and avoid flood-prone ravines until the storm moves away.

World’s Wettest Hills Now Face Rising Drought Risk

Meghalaya’s famous rain belts are changing. Mawsynram and Cherrapunji still receive heavy monsoon downpours. Yet a new study warns that drought risk is growing there.

Climate change is reshaping the rain. Storms now pack more water into fewer days. Light rain is fading. Temperatures are climbing. As a result, the land dries out faster between bursts.

Researchers published the findings in Theoretical and Applied Climatology. They studied climate and river-flow data for Meghalaya and nearby areas from 1981 through 2100. The team found rainfall clustering into intense spells. Meanwhile, the number of wet days keeps falling. This pattern raises the chance of moderate, severe, and extreme drought. The threat looks strongest under the high-emissions SSP585 path.

Ashesh Rudra Paul and Pankaj Kumar Roy led the work. They tracked the Simple Daily Intensity Index. That measure shows average rain on a wet day. It rose by as much as 0.08 mm per day each year in some spots. At the same time, rainy days dropped by about 0.40 days per year on average.

More rain does not always ease drought. The authors noted this surprise. Concentrated storms fail to refill the ground. Meghalaya’s steep slopes and thin soils make the problem worse. Heavy rain races off the surface. Little water soaks in. Groundwater therefore stays low even after a strong monsoon.

Rising heat adds another strain. Minimum temperatures increased by up to 0.08 degrees Celsius per year. Warmer air pulls more moisture from soil and plants. Evapotranspiration speeds up. Dry spells then empty the land more quickly.

The team used the Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index on a three-month scale. Drought events look set to grow more frequent and more intense. The jump appears from the near future into the far future. The largest rise occurs under SSP585, a path of fast growth and heavy fossil-fuel use.

River models tell a similar story. The researchers examined the Sari-Gowain and Surma-Meghna basins. Both draw significant water from Meghalaya. In the far future under SSP585, mean annual flow in the Sari-Gowain basin could fall by as much as 9.8 percent. The Surma-Meghna basin could drop by up to 11.6 percent. Flows would still peak in June and July. After that, levels would sink. Hydrological drought could then strike later in the year.

The study left out human pressures. Deforestation, expanding towns, land-use shifts, and extra groundwater pumping can also cut water supplies. The authors therefore urge broader planning. Managers should look beyond total rainfall. They need to weigh storm intensity, rain timing, higher temperatures, and basin-wide flows. Scientists, officials, and local communities must work together, the paper said.

People on the ground already notice the shift. Residents in Sohra and Mawsynram report that streams and waterfalls are shrinking earlier this year. Some drying appeared by mid-September. P. Hujon, who runs a guest house in Mawkisyiem, said many falls around Sohra are running low sooner than before.

Meghalaya may keep its reputation for extreme rain. Even so, hotter days, fewer wet days, and weaker recharge could leave the hills thirstier between storms.

IMD Forecasts Widespread Karnataka Rain as Bay System Strengthens

A low-pressure system over the Bay of Bengal is drawing moisture inland. The India Meteorological Department expects widespread showers across Karnataka as that system strengthens.

IMD has issued yellow alerts until September 24. The watch covers several coastal, north interior, and south interior districts. Light to moderate rain, thunderstorms, and lightning are likely in many of those areas. Isolated heavy rain is also possible.

Bengaluru may see thundershowers through the coming days. Gusty winds could reach 30 to 40 km/hr. The rain should ease recent heat. It may also cause waterlogging and slower traffic.

The statewide spell is expected to last through September 24. Residents in alert districts should watch local updates and avoid waterlogged roads during heavy bursts.

A magnitude 4.9 earthquake shook parts of Northeast India on Saturday. The National Centre for Seismology reported the event. Tremors reached Guwahati and other places in the region.

The epicentre lay about 3 km from Gyelpozhing in Bhutan. The focus was shallow, at a depth of 5 km. The quake struck at 4.01 pm.

NCS said no damage had been reported so far. Officials continue to watch the area. The eastern Himalaya is a known seismic belt, so moderate shocks are not unusual there.

Heavy Rain Floods Ahmedabad Again as Red Alerts Cover Eight Gujarat Districts

Heavy rain hit parts of Gujarat for the second time this week. The spell began on Thursday night. Streets in Ahmedabad filled with water. Roads closed. Trees came down.

The weather office put red alerts on Ahmedabad, Gandhinagar, Mehsana, Aravalli, Sabarkantha, Mahisagar, Anand, and Kheda. It also forecast moderate rain with thunderstorms through Friday afternoon.

Peak-hour traffic took the brunt in the city. Officials shut at least four underpasses after they filled with water. The Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation later reopened the Shahibaug underpass. Mithakhali, Usmanpura, and Akhbarnagar underpasses, which link large parts of West Ahmedabad, stayed closed.

Rain was widespread. Of 34 districts, 32 recorded an average of 8.69 mm in the previous 24 hours. Daily life slowed in several places. Some planned events were cancelled or delayed.

From Thursday 6 a.m. to Friday 6 a.m., 150 talukas received rain. Totals ranged from 0.04 mm to 131 mm. Maliya in Morbi district led with 131 mm. Danta in Banaskantha recorded 91 mm. Shankheshwar in Patan received 85 mm. Dwarka in Devbhumi Dwarka got 71 mm. Bechraji in Mehsana recorded 65 mm.

The season total for Gujarat now stands at 779.41 mm. That is 85.79 percent of the 30-year average. Most of the state is still short of a normal year. South Gujarat is the exception, at 112.6 percent of average. Kutch is at 57.1 percent. North Gujarat and Saurashtra are both at 66.6 percent. East-central Gujarat is at 85.7 percent. Porbandar, Jamnagar, and Devbhumi Dwarka remain among the driest districts.

Friday morning brought another burst. Between 6 a.m. and 10 a.m., Meghraj taluka in Aravalli recorded 73 mm. Ahmedabad city received 70 mm. Talod in Sabarkantha and Modasa in Aravalli each logged 57 mm. Kheralu in Mehsana recorded 51 mm.

Public programmes also shifted. Viramgam MLA Hardik Patel postponed two events in his constituency: a stroke-awareness camp and a groundbreaking ceremony.

Reservoirs had already gained about 3 percent after 48 hours of rain earlier in the week. They still sat about 13 percent below last year’s levels. Officials asked residents to avoid flooded underpasses and watch for further thunderstorms through Friday.