Home

Very Strong El Niño Builds in the Pacific as India Watches a Positive IOD

A very strong El Niño is taking shape in the Pacific Ocean. The World Meteorological Organization said so on 3 September. The agency also said the event is now firmly established. It is likely to strengthen further in the coming months.

WMO forecasts give the event a nearly 100 percent chance of lasting through February 2027. Meanwhile, exceptionally warm waters in the tropical Pacific could shift rainfall and temperature patterns worldwide. Therefore, flood, drought, and extreme heat risks may rise in many regions.

Another ocean signal could change the picture for India. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole is also expected to develop during September to November. WMO forecasts a seasonal average IOD value of about 0.9°C. However, that does not mean the Indian Ocean will cancel El Niño.

WMO uses careful language. It says El Niño and a positive IOD can reinforce, weaken, or alter typical El Niño impacts in different regions. As a result, the two patterns may interact. The exact outcome will still depend on how both systems evolve.

The distinction matters for India. The country has already seen a weaker-than-normal monsoon in 2026. September rainfall has been running below normal. Concerns have also grown for cotton, soybean, maize, and rice.

El Niño forms when sea-surface temperatures turn unusually warm across parts of the central and eastern tropical Pacific. That warming then changes atmospheric circulation. Rainfall and temperature patterns can shift far beyond the Pacific.

WMO’s 31 July assessment said El Niño was strengthening steadily. It also forecast the seasonal average sea-surface temperature anomaly to exceed 2.9°C in key monitoring regions during August to October. Later, the 3 September outlook put the expected Niño 3.4 anomaly at about 3.6°C for September to November. The event is expected to peak around November and December.

The current event already ranks among the four strongest El Niño events since 1950, according to Reuters. WMO calls it “very strong.” It expects further intensification. Still, the agency has not officially labelled it a “super El Niño.”

India’s Ministry of Earth Sciences made a similar point on 30 July. It said neither WMO nor the India Meteorological Department uses an official “Super El Niño” category. Events are generally classed as weak, moderate, strong, or very strong. The ministry also said IMD had predicted El Niño during the 2026 southwest monsoon. Conditions were weak in June. They then strengthened to moderate levels in July. El Niño may reach the very strong category during October to December.

Timing still matters. El Niño often peaks late in the year, after India’s main southwest monsoon. Even so, the risk for India does not disappear. El Niño can affect rainfall and temperatures after the monsoon as well. Effects also vary from one event to another.

WMO said a strong El Niño can shift rainfall patterns. It can also raise the risks of floods, drought, and extreme heat. The September outlook further points to above-normal temperatures across almost all land areas.

The Indian Ocean Dipole is a separate climate pattern. It measures the difference in sea-surface temperatures between the western and eastern tropical Indian Ocean. A positive IOD generally means warmer-than-normal waters in the west and cooler-than-normal waters in the east.

WMO’s 31 July update said a positive IOD was expected to develop alongside the strengthening El Niño. The 3 September forecast then put the September–November seasonal average at 0.9°C. India’s weather authorities track both signals when they assess the monsoon.

A government release on 30 April said neutral IOD conditions were present at that time. Climate models nevertheless pointed to a possible positive IOD toward the end of the southwest monsoon. Sea-surface conditions in the Pacific and Indian oceans strongly influence the Indian monsoon.

Available forecasts still do not say a positive IOD will definitely blunt El Niño over India. WMO remains cautious. The two oceanic patterns can reinforce, weaken, or alter typical impacts. IMD has also said El Niño is only one factor. Intensity and effects over India depend on wider ocean-atmosphere conditions.

Latest rainfall data explain why caution is needed. India’s September rainfall was 35 percent below normal at one reported point, according to Reuters. June rainfall had also been 35 percent below normal. August remained deficient as well. A continued shortfall could make 2026 India’s weakest monsoon in nearly two decades.

September rain matters for standing crops. It also matters for soil moisture. Farmers then prepare winter crops such as wheat, rapeseed, and chickpeas.

The developing El Niño therefore adds uncertainty to India’s weather outlook. The positive IOD means the Pacific signal cannot be viewed alone. WMO’s latest assessment includes both patterns. It also says they can interact differently across regions.

That is the strongest factual basis for the key question. Can the Indian Ocean soften El Niño’s impact? It can change how El Niño affects different regions. There is still no official forecast saying it will fully offset the Pacific event over India.

The coming months will depend on how Pacific warming and the positive IOD evolve together. WMO expects El Niño to persist through February 2027. The positive IOD is expected during September to November.

A very strong El Niño can cause significant changes in rainfall and temperature. It can also raise the risks of extreme heat, drought, and floods. The positive IOD could modify that pattern. It cannot yet be treated as a shield.

Therefore, the Indian Ocean may change how El Niño affects India. It cannot yet be counted on to protect the country. That uncertainty makes the next few months important for agriculture, water management, and weather preparedness.

West Bengal chief minister Suvendu Adhikari held an emergency meeting on Friday. The meeting reviewed flood conditions in several south Bengal districts. Heavy rain and water releases from DVC barrages in Jharkhand worsened the situation.

Adhikari said nine gram panchayat areas in Jangipara, Khanakul, and Goghat in Hooghly are worst affected. Low‑lying areas of Udaynarayanpur in Howrah are also inundated. Sonamukhi in Bankura is stable for now.

He noted rivers in Khanakul, Jangipara, and Udaynarayanpur were flowing above danger level. Rainfall has reduced and DVC is releasing less water from Maithon and Panchet dams. “The situation is under control as of now,” Adhikari said.

District administrations have been instructed to distribute ration and relief materials. Medicines and anti‑venom injections are stocked. Speed boats are on standby. Police will distribute food and fodder for livestock.

Adhikari refused to blame DVC for the floods. He said excessive rainfall naturally causes reservoirs to overflow. “This is natural,” he added, distancing himself from past political blame.

Glacier Risks Rising on Tibetan Plateau

Chinese climate officials have warned of growing instability in Tibetan Plateau glaciers. The concern follows the August 26 ice-rock avalanche near the Nepal-Tibet border, which triggered flash floods across towns and villages.

Over the past 60 years, glacier area on the plateau has shrunk by 24%, with around 7,000 small glaciers disappearing. Gao Rong of China’s National Climate Centre said structural stability will decline further, increasing the likelihood of more frequent disasters.

At Gyirong Port, officials reported 541 people missing, including 261 foreigners from 23 countries. The collapse created a mudslide that travelled 22 km in seven minutes, pulling in debris and water as it moved downstream.

Researchers from the Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research stressed that risk assessments must consider not only the initial collapse but also how much material can be entrained along valleys. This determines the scale of hazards to people and infrastructure.

A Nature article highlighted the need for better monitoring systems. Experts said conventional tools are not enough to predict sudden glacier-rock failures. They called for regional satellite-based systems that track glacier and slope deformation, linking data directly to flood and avalanche models.

Scientists and officials agree that future assessments must adapt to the rapid changes in high-mountain environments. The Tibetan Plateau remains a critical region where glacier instability could amplify risks across borders.

Nepal Prime Minister Balendra Shah has thanked India and China for a fast response to flash floods that struck on August 26. Rescue teams are still searching for survivors and missing people in the worst-hit areas. Shah pointed to emergency aid from both neighbours. That help has included relief supplies, technical support, and rescue staff.

The floods wrecked large parts of Nepal and areas of China’s Tibet region. Roads, bridges, settlements, and hydropower sites were damaged. Debris and water cut mountain routes and isolated communities.

India has sent a fifth tranche of emergency material. Indian Air Force aircraft have flown several sorties with supplies. New Delhi has also offered specialised search-and-rescue help. Indian teams have worked around hydropower tunnels. They have also supported forensic identification as casualties and missing-person cases rose.

China has run rescue and recovery work on its side of the border. Authorities reopened the damaged G216 highway toward the Gyirong crossing. That reopening let heavy machinery and specialist equipment reach places that the flood had blocked.

The thanks came days after Foreign Affairs Minister Shisir Khanal called for a different model of disaster aid. He argued that India, China, and the United States should offer “climate compensation,” not only humanitarian relief. Khanal said Nepal emits little greenhouse gas but faces high risk in the Himalaya. In his view, assistance should be framed as justice, not charity. Major emitters, he said, carry a larger share of responsibility. Kathmandu is still taking emergency help from several countries and agencies while it presses that argument.

The disaster is one of Nepal’s gravest recent emergencies. Latest reports put the death toll above 1,100. Thousands remain listed as missing. A glacial collapse sent water, ice, rock, and debris down river valleys along the Nepal–China border. The surge swept away infrastructure and trapped people in several spots.

On Wednesday, Nepali rescuers kept searching hydropower tunnels. Hopes of finding anyone alive there were fading. Blocked passages slowed the teams. No survivors were found in those workings. Forensic staff are identifying recovered bodies. Other crews continue to look for the missing.

Rain lashed Delhi-NCR on Tuesday. The India Meteorological Department issued an orange nowcast for several parts of the region. The alert covers Ghaziabad along with Central, North, and South Delhi. More showers were likely in the next two hours after the warning went out.

The wider week still looks wet at first, then drier. IMD expects a mix of rain and cloud over the next seven days. Rain is more likely during the first four days. Temperatures should stay roughly between 24 and 36 degrees Celsius.

September 1 points to a minimum of 28 degrees Celsius and a maximum of 36 degrees Celsius. Skies should stay generally cloudy. Light rain or drizzle is possible. September 2 looks cooler. The forecast puts the minimum at 24 degrees Celsius and the maximum at 33 degrees Celsius. Cloud cover should persist. Moderate rain is likely that day.

September 3 keeps a similar range, from 24 to 33 degrees Celsius. Generally cloudy skies and light rain or drizzle remain on the chart. September 4 then eases the heat a little more. The minimum is placed at 25 degrees Celsius and the maximum at 32 degrees Celsius. Light rain or drizzle can still fall under cloudy skies.

The later stretch looks quieter. September 5 is forecast at 24 to 33 degrees Celsius with partly cloudy skies. September 6 repeats that 24 to 33 degree band and the same partial cloud. September 7 may dip to a minimum of 23 degrees Celsius, with a maximum near 32 degrees Celsius. Partly cloudy weather is expected to continue.

Commuters should treat the orange nowcast as a short-term warning for heavy bursts, waterlogging, and slower traffic. The seven-day outlook is a broader guide. Local showers can still differ from the city-wide chart. Check the latest IMD nowcast before travel.

August left Uttar Pradesh wetter than usual. The rain, however, did not fall evenly. Some districts recorded more than twice their normal totals. Others barely received a few showers.

The state received 291.3 mm in August. The long-period average stands at 235.5 mm. Therefore, the month ended 24% above normal, according to India Meteorological Department data.

Mahoba stood out on the wet side. The district received 673.7 mm. That total is nearly three times the usual amount and marks a 199% surplus. Prayagraj recorded 601.6 mm, which is 160% above normal. Banda received 646 mm. Chitrakoot received 632.9 mm. Both districts stayed more than 140% above their averages.

The dry end of the map looked very different. Deoria received only 42.5 mm, which is 81% below normal. Kushinagar recorded 54 mm and finished 74% short. Mau received 89.5 mm and stayed 60% below its usual mark.

Lucknow also stayed on the wetter side. The capital received 330.6 mm against a normal of 202 mm, a 64% surplus. Barabanki recorded 291.4 mm, which is 23% above normal. Kanpur city received 392.9 mm and posted a 107% excess. Varanasi received 448 mm, 83% above its average.

West Uttar Pradesh ended the month wetter than the east. The western region received 294 mm against a normal of 228.3 mm, a 29% surplus. East Uttar Pradesh received 289.5 mm against 240.6 mm and posted a 20% surplus. Atul Kumar Singh, a senior scientist at the Regional Meteorological Centre in Lucknow, confirmed this split.

The wider monsoon season still lags. Since June 1, Uttar Pradesh has a 7% rainfall deficit. East Uttar Pradesh remains 13% below normal. West Uttar Pradesh holds a 3% surplus.

District-level results stay mixed as well. Twenty-one districts have received deficient or large deficient rainfall so far. Thirty-four districts have recorded normal rainfall. Nine districts have received excess rain. Two districts have recorded large excess rainfall.

September may bring another wet spell. The IMD expects heavy to very heavy rain across Uttar Pradesh in the coming week. A well-marked low-pressure area over the northwest Bay of Bengal is moving west-northwest towards Gangetic West Bengal, adjoining north coastal Odisha, and the northwest Bay of Bengal. The system should strengthen monsoon flow over the region. Eastern Uttar Pradesh may see very heavy rain at isolated places during the first 48 hours.

An orange alert covers Banda, Chitrakoot, Kaushambi, Prayagraj, Fatehpur, Pratapgarh, Sonbhadra, Mirzapur, Sant Ravidas Nagar, Raebareli, and Amethi. A yellow alert covers more than 20 districts. Those include Lucknow, Barabanki, Ayodhya, Varanasi, Jaunpur, Ghazipur, Azamgarh, Kanpur Nagar, Unnao, Bijnor, Moradabad, Bareilly, Pilibhit, Sambhal, Badaun, Jalaun, Hamirpur, and Mahoba.

In the last 24 hours, Moradabad CWC recorded 149.4 mm. Koraon in Prayagraj received 132 mm. Rajapur in Chitrakoot received 67 mm.

Fresh monsoon activity may soon spread across large parts of east and central India. Weather systems are beginning to form over the Bay of Bengal. Forecasters expect the next seven to 10 days to become an important phase for the Southwest Monsoon. Several low-pressure systems may develop and move inland.

A long zone of atmospheric convergence has formed. It stretches from the Bay of Bengal towards the western Pacific. Such zones can help organised weather systems develop. They bring together moisture-laden winds. Therefore, conditions become more favourable for low-pressure areas.

Several low-pressure systems may emerge along this zone. They could move westward toward central India over the next five to seven days. As these systems travel inland, they may trigger widespread showers across eastern and central regions. This rain could help areas that have remained deficient during the monsoon season.

The first half of September may decide the season’s final outcome. Rainfall in this period could change the overall monsoon numbers. Forecasters say a swing of about 5 percent above or below current levels is still possible. That shift will depend on how active the monsoon becomes.

Rainfall so far in the 2026 Southwest Monsoon has been uneven. Ladakh has recorded the largest surplus at 204 percent above normal. Dadra and Nagar Haveli and Daman and Diu have seen a 51 percent surplus. Odisha is 25 percent above normal. Delhi has also received 18 percent excess rainfall.

Several states still face large deficits. Meghalaya has the sharpest shortfall at 58 percent below normal. Manipur is 43 percent below normal. Bihar is 42 percent below normal. Arunachal Pradesh and Andhra Pradesh are both around 40 percent below normal.

India as a whole has received 587.8 mm of rainfall. The normal amount for this period is 679.5 mm. This leaves a seasonal deficit of 13 percent. Despite the shortfall, the monsoon still falls within the India Meteorological Department’s normal rainfall category.

The developing Bay of Bengal systems may now play a decisive role. Rainfall in early September could also shape the final picture. Together, these factors may determine how the 2026 monsoon season ends.

A bus driver’s quick decision may have saved two travellers from a flash flood near Nepal’s Kerung border. Anukul Poddar and his wife, Reba, were heading toward Tibet when the danger struck.

The couple had travelled about one hour from the immigration centre. Around 9:30 am on Wednesday, the driver stopped the bus. He warned that a flash flood had hit the area. He then refused to continue on the same road. Shortly after the bus turned toward Kathmandu, floodwaters washed away the stretch where they had stopped.

Anukul later described a cloud moving down the gorge and a hissing sound. At that moment, the group did not know the scale of damage at the Kerung immigration centre. The driver did not wait. He took another route and drove the passengers to Kathmandu. The journey from that point took about two hours.

Minutes later, the travellers saw schoolchildren, local residents and vehicles rushing uphill. People were screaming as they ran. The scene showed how quickly the situation had changed.

The Poddars later learned that another couple from their hometown had already reached the immigration centre. That couple has remained missing since the flood.

Anukul and Reba, both 66, live in Basirhat in West Bengal. They were part of a pilgrim group called The Cholo Jai. The group left Kolkata on August 21 for the Kailash-Manasarovar journey. On Wednesday, they were scheduled to enter Tibet.

Another couple from Basirhat, Swapan Mondal and his wife Mou, also retired schoolteachers, travelled with a different agency. They are known to the Poddars. Their group reached the immigration centre earlier. Swapan last sent a good morning message to Anukul at 8:30 am. The message included a photograph of the couple at the immigration office. There has been no contact since then.

The two families usually travel together with the same agency. This year, a delay in Anukul’s passport renewal caused them to miss the original deadline. As a result, the Poddars joined the Cholo Jai team. The Mondals had to travel with another agency. Both groups still started on August 21 and boarded the same train.

The Mondals’ team left Kathmandu on Tuesday and headed toward Kerung. They were supposed to stay overnight and reach the immigration office at 8:30 am. The Poddars’ team left Kathmandu early on Wednesday. Their scheduled arrival was around 10:30 am.

State officials later said at least 39 people from West Bengal were reported missing. Family members and the administration then managed to contact the Poddar couple.

On Saturday, the Poddars reached Raxaul in Bihar from Biratnagar in Nepal with other members of their team. They boarded the Mithila Express and were scheduled to reach Howrah early on Sunday.

Officials had directed police to arrange flight tickets for the couple. However, the pair had already reached Biratnagar. Returning to Kathmandu for a flight would have taken more time. Therefore, they chose to travel by train.

Their son, Satyaki Poddar, lives in New Town. He said the couple remains in shock. He added that they may stay with family for some days. There is still no news of the Mondal family. Relatives continue to hope for their safe return.

Forecasters now expect Tropical Storm Karina to strengthen into a major hurricane. Some updated models also show paths that could bring effects toward California.

The National Hurricane Center said Karina already has sustained winds above 50 mph. It may reach hurricane strength as early as Friday night.

By Sunday morning, some forecasts show the storm becoming a Category 3 hurricane. That would mean winds above 111 mph.

Spaghetti models display a range of possible tracks. A few of those tracks point toward the California coast. Earlier, the American GFS model showed scenarios that included a possible landfall near San Diego or Los Angeles. The European ensemble was more doubtful on Thursday and kept the storm offshore.

Both model sets were updated on Friday. They now show a greater chance of paths toward Southern California and areas farther north.

A hurricane making landfall in California remains highly unusual. The National Weather Service notes that the state has no recorded hurricane landfall in its history. The last tropical storm to affect the state directly was in 1997.

Karina is currently less than 1,400 miles south of San Diego. It is moving northwest at about 13 mph, well off the Mexican coast.

Even at that distance, the National Hurricane Center warned that tropical-storm-force winds extend more than 200 miles from the centre. Officials also expect swells along the southwestern coast of Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula this weekend. Those swells could create dangerous rip currents.

Rip currents are strong, narrow flows that pull water away from the shore. They can quickly carry swimmers into deeper water and tire them as they try to fight the current.