Monsoon Slows Over South India, But Official Withdrawal Has Not Begun

Monsoon Slows Over South India, But Official Withdrawal Has Not Begun

The southwest monsoon has quietened over large parts of India. The rainy season now enters its final weeks. Rainfall has eased most clearly over peninsular India. That raises a simple question. Is the season ending, or will another spell of rain arrive?

It is still too early to call the monsoon over. On September 7, the India Meteorological Department said rainfall will stay subdued over peninsular India for the next seven days. However, this remains a lull. It is not the formal withdrawal. Rain continues in other regions.

Is the monsoon still active?

The slowdown stands out across southern and peninsular India. The latest IMD outlook points to limited rain there in the coming days. Elsewhere, the monsoon stays active. A low-pressure area over central Uttar Pradesh is influencing weather over parts of north and central India. The monsoon trough also remains in play. It stretches from northwest India towards the Bay of Bengal. As a result, several regions still receive rain.

There is another reason to wait. IMD’s extended-range forecast points to a fresh cyclonic circulation over the central and adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal. Under that influence, a low-pressure area may form in the same region. That system could increase rain over eastern and adjoining northeastern parts of peninsular India in the following week.

When could rain return?

The next spell is likely to stay uneven. It will not cover the whole country at once. IMD expects fairly widespread rain over Chhattisgarh from September 8 to 12. Vidarbha may see rain from September 10 to 12. Odisha may also receive rain during the same period. Therefore, peninsular India may stay relatively dry for now. The pattern could turn more active later as the Bay of Bengal system develops.

September rain still matters for farming. Below-normal rain this month could affect standing crops. It could also reduce soil moisture before the winter sowing season.

Has the monsoon ended?

The rainy season has not checked out of India yet. A lull does not mean official withdrawal. IMD declares withdrawal only after specific conditions appear. Those include five straight days without significant rain, an anticyclone in the lower atmosphere, and a clear drop in moisture.

In short, the monsoon is slowing. It has not left. More rain remains possible if the expected Bay of Bengal system forms as forecast. For now, the season has taken a pause. It has not quit.