Monsoon Withdrawal Nears as Maharashtra Stays Dry and Delhi Opens October with Worse Air

Maharashtra has faced a dry spell for several days. The state government has declared a drought and called the situation serious. Crops have wilted from a lack of water, and drinking-water supplies are short. El Niño effects are also showing up in other parts of the country. Even so, the monsoon’s return has begun.

The India Meteorological Department says atmospheric conditions now favour that return. Isolated places in Konkan and western Maharashtra may see rain with lightning. Meanwhile, temperatures are expected to rise in other parts of the state. A low-pressure area remains active over northern Myanmar and eastern Bangladesh.

Mumbai is likely to see partly cloudy skies in the city and suburbs on Friday. From 8 am on October 1 to 8 am on October 2, recorded rainfall was 0.00 mm in the city, the eastern suburbs, and the western suburbs. A high tide of 3.57 metres is expected at 3:05 pm on Friday, and another of 3.81 metres at 4:25 am on October 3. A low tide of 0.92 metres is forecast at 9:08 pm on Friday, with another of 2.22 metres at 10:28 am on October 3.

Delhi recorded its most polluted start to October in four years on Thursday. The city’s air quality slipped into the moderate category, and the AQI settled at 166. The last higher October 1 reading was in 2022, when the index stood at 186, also in the moderate range, according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air. Of 44 monitoring stations, 37 were moderate, five were poor, and two were satisfactory, according to Central Pollution Control Board data.

In Himachal Pradesh, conditions favour withdrawal of the southwest monsoon in the next two to three days, the Shimla Met office said on Thursday. The monsoon reached the state on June 30 this year. From July 1 to September 29, the state received 652.6 mm of rain against a normal of 733.4 mm, an 11 percent deficit. Weather stayed mainly dry in the 24 hours until 4 pm on Thursday. The Met office has issued a yellow warning for thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds in isolated parts on October 6 and 7, and a wet spell from October 5 to 7. Authorities also evacuated residents of five houses at Surugaon village in Shimla district on Thursday after recent landslides raised the risk.

Disclaimer: This article only summarises publicly reported weather updates. It is not an official forecast and should not guide travel, farming, or safety decisions. Readers should check the latest IMD bulletin and local alerts before they act.

India’s Monsoon Ends 12.5% Below Normal, Raising Inflation and Rural Risks

India’s Southwest monsoon season has ended with rainfall 12.5% below normal. The shortfall is wider than the India Meteorological Department’s earlier outlook of a 10% deficit. The dry spell is already weighing on farm output. It has also lowered key reservoirs and raised risks for rural spending in the coming quarters. The open question is how far this feeds into inflation.

Nomura says overall inflation and mid-single-digit price rises still look manageable. The brokerage does not see a clear hit to volumes yet. It warns that further product price increases, plus weaker farm yields, could add pressure on demand.

Large government foodgrain stocks may limit food inflation, Nomura says. Reservoirs in the south and north remain well below normal, which still worries officials about water for the coming Rabi sowing season.

Water in India’s 178 primary reservoirs stood 11.5% below the 10-year average. Live storage was 70.8% of capacity. Total Kharif sowing was down 1.5% year on year by mid-September. That was a recovery from a 23% drop in late June. Rice area fell 3.8%. Maize area fell 2.6%. Pulse area rose 1.5% after better late rain in central belts.

Rural demand is the larger concern. Nomura says rural consumption growth has already slowed and is moving closer to urban rates as weaker yields cut farm incomes. Analysts Mihir P. Shah and Riya Patni said they remain watchful because a below-normal monsoon, El Niño, and company price rises linked to the West Asia conflict can hit together.

Nomura expects strong El Niño conditions to last through February. A warmer winter could follow. That would threaten seasonal goods such as skin creams, lotions, and health supplements.

Nearly 42% of the country’s sub-divisions recorded rainfall deficits. About 75% of Maharashtra and Karnataka faced severe drought conditions. Eastern and North-Eastern India logged the largest shortfall, at 25%. The South Peninsular region was 24% short. Central India limited its deficit to 2%, which cushioned cotton, oilseeds, and pulses. Northwest India recorded a 6% deficit, with only moderate disruption to rice and sugarcane.

Food buffers may hold prices for now. Reservoir stress and a weak Rabi setup could still lift inflation later if yields fall further. These points reflect brokerage and weather assessments. They are not investment advice.

Atlantic Storm Season Stays Quiet While Pacific Sees Surge in Tropical Activity

Tropical oceans around the world are showing a sharp contrast as September comes to an end. While the Atlantic Ocean remains unusually calm, the Pacific Ocean continues to generate multiple powerful storm systems.

Forecasters are currently monitoring several tropical disturbances, storms, and hurricanes across the Pacific. In contrast, activity in the Atlantic remains well below seasonal averages despite this being one of the busiest periods of the year for tropical cyclone formation.

The Atlantic hurricane season has produced only eight named storms so far. Notably, none of them have strengthened into hurricanes. Recent monitoring reports showed Tropical Storm Fay and Tropical Storm Hanna moving over open Atlantic waters, with both systems remaining away from major land areas.

Weather experts note that overall cyclone energy in the Atlantic has remained significantly below long-term averages. This unusual slowdown has made the 2026 season one of the quietest in recent years.

Meanwhile, the Pacific Ocean tells a very different story. Major Hurricane Nolo recently intensified with extremely strong winds near the northwestern Hawaiian Islands. At the same time, Hurricane Polo made landfall in Mexico’s Baja California Sur region, bringing destructive winds and heavy rainfall.

In addition, Tropical Storm Rachel continues to move near Mexico’s Pacific coast and could strengthen further. Another weather disturbance east-southeast of Hawaii is also being closely watched for possible development.

The western Pacific remains active as well. Typhoon Surigae is currently tracking toward Japan, adding to the growing number of tropical systems across the region.

Meteorologists believe El Niño is playing an important role in the differing conditions. The climate pattern often increases upper-level wind shear across the Atlantic. As a result, developing storms can struggle to organize and intensify.

On the other hand, atmospheric and oceanic changes linked to El Niño may create conditions that support cyclone formation in parts of the Pacific Ocean. However, experts emphasize that no single factor is responsible for the current situation.

Instead, a combination of ocean temperatures, wind patterns, atmospheric conditions, and large-scale climate influences appears to be driving the dramatic difference between the two ocean basins.

As the tropical season continues, scientists will closely monitor both regions to see whether the Atlantic becomes more active or if the Pacific maintains its current pace of storm development.

Hurricane Polo Hits Baja California Sur as Rachel Tracks Offshore and Nolo Pulls Away from Hawaii

Hurricane Polo came ashore early Tuesday in Mexico’s Baja California Sur. The US National Hurricane Center in Miami classified the landfall as a Category 2 storm. Maximum sustained winds were given as 110 mph (175 kph). Forecasters warned of flash floods and dangerous winds.

The center crossed the west coast just south of Las Barrancas. That point is about 80 miles (130 kilometres) north of Cabo San Lazaro and about 70 miles (115 kilometres) south of Mulege. Polo was moving northeast at 13 mph (20 kph). On Monday it had been a Category 3 storm with top sustained winds of 115 mph (185 kph). After a few hours over land, winds began to ease.

Rain totals of 6 to 12 inches were expected across parts of Baja California Sur. Flood risk was also forecast later in the week for parts of the US Southwest. Local officials said shelters were ready. Travel in the affected zone was to be suspended. Ports across the region were closed. The Mexican navy said crews were on standby along the northern Pacific coast and had sent three vessels that could carry aid if communities were cut off.

Sonora announced further precautions on Monday night. Nonessential activity, including school, sports, and non-essential work, was suspended in the state capital and more than a dozen municipalities.

Tropical Storm Rachel was moving parallel to Mexico’s coast early Tuesday. It was about 300 miles (485 kilometres) west-southwest of Acapulco and about 315 miles (505 kilometres) south of Manzanillo. Maximum sustained winds were 60 mph (95 kph). Motion was west-northwest at 12 mph (19 kph).

Hurricane Nolo remained a major hurricane on Monday night but was turning away from Hawaii. It was about 425 miles (685 kilometres) west-southwest of Honolulu and about 330 miles (535 kilometres) south-southeast of French Frigate Shoals. Maximum sustained winds were 120 mph (195 kph), with a north-northwest heading at 15 mph (24 kph). Over the weekend Nolo soaked south and southeastern parts of Hawaii’s Big Island. The US National Guard said members rescued 19 people from floodwaters. The hurricane center said Nolo was approaching the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument and could bring harsh marine conditions there from Tuesday.

National Weather Service lead forecaster Bob Oravec said Pacific storm activity has been above average at the peak of the season. He linked that pattern to El Niño years, when the Pacific often produces more tropical storms and hurricanes. Moisture from Polo was expected to reach Arizona, Utah, New Mexico, and Texas. Andrew Mangham, senior service hydrologist for the National Weather Service in Albuquerque, said arid canyons and rocky ground with little vegetation flood quickly when tropical rain arrives in a short burst.

Polo’s landfall, Rachel’s offshore track, and Nolo’s path near Hawaii marked an unusually busy stretch across the Pacific. Residents in Baja California Sur were told to stay in safe shelter through Tuesday morning as the core moved toward mainland Mexico.

Bangkok Floodwaters Begin to Recede After Weekend Deluge

Floodwaters in Bangkok were falling slowly on Monday. Heavy rain had fallen through the weekend. Some neighbourhoods and main roads still stood under water. Showers continued on and off. City officials said drainage work could now move faster.

The Bangkok Flood Control Centre said the weekend flooding reached 329,000 households. That is about 700,000 people. Deputy Governor Tavida Kamolvej reported the figure. Governor Chadchart Sittipunt declared a flood emergency in all 50 districts on Saturday. Suvarnabhumi Airport also faced disruption. More rain was forecast across much of Thailand. Bangkok itself was expected to receive less.

Officials said four main canals rose too high over the weekend to take runoff from nearby communities. Some districts escaped the worst. Authorities said they were focusing on older residents and people with disabilities. Teams delivered supplies or moved people out. Nearly 7,000 people were staying in shelters.

Eastern Bangkok was among the hardest-hit areas. Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul visited a flooded housing estate in Bang Kapi on Sunday night and helped hand out relief. On Monday, water near a train station and shopping mall in Bang Kapi was about knee-deep. Shoppers still waded through with bags and groceries. A mall boat carried some people to and from the station.

Naowarat Supanikorn, a 55-year-old maid, lives in a single-storey house with three dogs and six cats. She said water entered her home around 1.30 am on Saturday. She first moved the animals to a neighbour. She brought them back on Monday after hearing the sun might return. Rain still looked likely. Water in her street had risen above her hips at its peak and later dropped to about knee level.

She also lost her condominium job. She said her workplace told her she could resign if she could not attend. She bought supplies to cook and sell on the street. Business stayed slow because of the flood. She said bills would be hard to meet without work. Her first concern was the pets.

The floods also triggered panic buying. Food and goods deliveries were disrupted. Some businesses lacked staff because workers could not travel. Suvarnabhumi Airport said baggage piled up after staff shortages and problems with some carts. Some departures were delayed. Arriving passengers waited longer for luggage.

The government declared special holidays on Monday and Tuesday for state offices. It advised state firms, banks, private businesses and hospitals to decide whether to stay open. Thailand’s meteorological agency forecast heavy to very heavy rain in several regions. It warned people in the north, centre and east to prepare for flash floods, overflowing rivers, forest runoff and landslides near waterways, foothills and low ground.

Water in parts of Bangkok was easing on Monday. Other streets remained flooded. The wider effects of the rain were still being felt.

Weak, Uneven Monsoon Threatens Kharif Yields

The June–September monsoon is ending weak. Rainfall is set to stay below 90% of the long-period average. The rain has also been uneven. Experts and trade sources say yields of paddy, pulses, and oilseeds may suffer.

Sown area is not the main shock. Kharif acreage is only slightly below last year. Last year’s output hit a record 176 million tonnes after two strong monsoons. This year the worry is growth at flowering, not the first sowing.

Tur, soybean, maize, and paddy are entering that sensitive stage. Maharashtra and Karnataka are major tur and soybean states. Rainfall there is short by 18% and 30%. Intra-state gaps are large as well. Both governments have declared drought in several taluks. Sugarcane yields in those states may also fall.

The countrywide deficit stood at 11.9% below the benchmark through Sunday. Akshay Deoras of the University of Reading said a rapid withdrawal is now likely. He put the final shortfall near 12%. He said El Niño weighed on the season. A helpful positive Indian Ocean Dipole did not arrive.

The map is uneven. Central India received normal rain. Northwest India was 6.3% below normal. East and northeast India were 24.5% short. South peninsular India was 23.4% short. Of about 740 districts, 309, or 42%, have had deficient or large-deficient rain. Another 424 districts, or more than 57%, have had normal to large-excess rain.

Maharashtra has felt the hit hardest in places. After poor rain in Marathwada and Vidarbha, the state declared drought in 265 of 358 taluks. That is 74% of the state. Agriculture minister Dattatray Bharne said farmers face losses in soybean, cotton, maize, jowar, bajra, paddy, tur, moong, and urad. Districts have been told to start damage surveys.

Karnataka added 23 more taluks after a field check. The state’s drought tally is now 124 taluks. Southern India remains under strain. Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh are about 23% below normal. Low reservoir levels have also limited farm work. Tur and paddy could suffer there.

Crisil Intelligence expects kharif acreage to be 0–1% lower year on year. The agriculture ministry put total sown area at 109.49 million hectares, 1.2% below last year. That total covers paddy, pulses, oilseeds, cotton, sugarcane, and coarse cereals.

The season itself was choppy. June rain was 36% below the benchmark. July recovered to 1% above the long-period average and lifted sowing. August was uneven again and 16.3% below normal. Every region except central India’s core monsoon zone was deficient that month.

IMD has forecast September rain below 91% of the benchmark. The agriculture ministry is still judging production. It will hold a national rabi conference on Monday with state departments.

In May, IMD cut its June–September outlook to 90% plus or minus 4% of the long-period average, from 92% in April. This season may be the weakest since 2014. Earlier deficient years include 2002, 2009, 2014, and 2015.

IMD Says Monsoon Withdrawal May Pause for a Week

The southwest monsoon may halt its retreat. Fresh rain is likely across central, eastern, and northern India. The system has already left Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, most of Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, and Gujarat. Further withdrawal may wait about a week. Active weather systems are still producing rain.

A deep depression has moved inland after crossing the Odisha coast. The India Meteorological Department says it should weaken as it crosses Chhattisgarh, east Madhya Pradesh, and Uttar Pradesh. Heavy rain is likely over the next four days in Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Uttar Pradesh. Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, and Telangana may also see showers and thunder.

The first week of October could change the pattern. IMD’s extended outlook says conditions may then favour withdrawal from the rest of northwest, central, and east India. A western disturbance is also likely to affect northwest India around that time.

From October 1 to 7, light to moderate rain may fall over many parts of the western Himalayan region. The Northeast, east, central, and peninsular India may get rain as well. IMD also says the next phase of withdrawal could cover northwest India, south interior Karnataka, and Kerala once conditions allow.

The national rainfall outlook for that week is below normal. Some belts should still receive spells, including the Northeast, the east, and the western Himalayas.

Final withdrawal is not expected before October 1. IMD says the large-scale wind pattern must first shift away from the present southwesterly regime. Until then, several states should stay prepared for more rain.

ISRO Image Shows a Sharp Cloud Split Across India

India’s weather now looks split from space. A new ISRO satellite image shows thick clouds over the east and south. Meanwhile, large parts of the west and northwest stay relatively clear.

INSAT-3DS captured the scene on Friday, September 25. The satellite used its thermal infrared channel at 10.83 micrometres. That view maps cloud cover across India and nearby countries.

A broad, bright cloud mass stands out first. It stretches from the Bay of Bengal into eastern and northeastern India. Extra cloud bands also sit over the southern peninsula and nearby seas. In contrast, western and northwestern India look far more open. The divide appears sharp in a single frame.

The timing matters. The southwest monsoon is now withdrawing over some regions. At the same time, other atmospheric systems still feed rain elsewhere. Moisture-laden winds and low-pressure zones can build clouds over the east and the Bay of Bengal. However, one satellite image cannot name the exact system behind the pattern.

INSAT-3DS belongs to India’s meteorological satellite programme. It tracks clouds, temperature, humidity, and other weather signals. Its thermal infrared sensor reads radiation from Earth and the air. As a result, meteorologists can watch cloud patterns even at night.

The India Meteorological Department uses these observations. Forecasters rely on them to monitor severe weather and track moving systems. This latest image shows how quickly conditions can change across the country. Different air masses can produce two weather stories at once.

Deep Depression Crosses Andhra Coast Near Kalingapatnam, Heavy Rain Likely

A deep depression over the Bay of Bengal made landfall on the Andhra Pradesh coast late Wednesday night. The India Meteorological Department says the system will keep moving inland. Intensity should hold through Thursday evening. Weakening is then expected by Friday night.

The weather office issued an update around 7:30 am on Thursday. The system lay over the Andhra coast and had drifted slowly west-northwest at about 3 km per hour in the previous six hours. It crossed close to southwest of Kalingapatnam between 11 pm on 23 September and 1 am on 24 September. Maximum sustained winds stood at 55–65 km per hour and gusted to 75 km per hour.

By 5:30 am Thursday the centre was about 50 km west of Kalingapatnam, 80 km north-northeast of Visakhapatnam and 170 km southwest of Gopalpur in Odisha. Later bulletins placed it over north coastal Andhra Pradesh and adjoining south Odisha. The IMD expects a northwestward track at first. Intensity as a deep depression should last about 12 hours. The system is then likely to turn north-northwest and weaken gradually over the next day.

On the IMD scale a deep depression sits above a depression and below a cyclone. Three-minute sustained winds fall between 52 and 61 km per hour. Officials have already said the system will not become a cyclone. Intense local showers and gusty winds up to 75 km per hour are still expected through Thursday.

Skymet’s Mahesh Palawat said moisture from the system could reach northwest India by the weekend. Easterly winds may bring some rain to Delhi-NCR on Saturday and Sunday even after monsoon withdrawal. Residents in coastal Andhra and south Odisha should watch local warnings for waterlogging and strong wind.

Deep Depression to Cross Near Kalingapatnam Tonight IMD Says

A deep depression over the Bay of Bengal is moving toward the Odisha–Andhra Pradesh coast. The India Meteorological Department says it is likely to cross near Kalingapatnam by the night of September 23. Heavy to very heavy rain is expected in several districts of both states.

The system intensified over the west-central and adjoining northwest Bay. IMD said it had been moving west at about 7 km/h. A later bulletin placed the centre near 18.0°N and 84.6°E at 8:30am IST on September 23, about 60 km southeast of Kalingapatnam.

IMD expects a west-northwest path. Landfall is forecast between Visakhapatnam and Gopalpur, close to Kalingapatnam, while the system is still a deep depression.

Odisha is on alert. A red warning for September 23 covers Gajapati, Ganjam, Rayagada, and Koraput. Heavy to very heavy rain is likely at a few places. Extremely heavy rain is possible at one or two spots. Thunderstorms, lightning, and gusts of 50–60 km/h may occur in isolated areas.

An orange alert covers Kalahandi, Nabarangpur, Nayagarh, Malkangiri, Puri, and Kandhamal. Very heavy rain is likely at one or two places. Isolated thunderstorms and similar gusts are also forecast.

Andhra Pradesh has matching warnings. A red alert covers Srikakulam, Parvathipuram Manyam, and Vizianagaram. An orange alert covers Visakhapatnam, Anakapalli, and Alluri Sitharama Raju.

Isolated parts of coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam may see heavy to very heavy rain on Wednesday. Extremely heavy showers are also possible. Thunderstorms with lightning are likely in parts of Rayalaseema. Coastal winds may reach 50–60 km/h. Isolated Rayalaseema winds may reach 40–50 km/h.

IMD says isolated heavy rain may continue over coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam on Thursday and Friday. Fishermen have been advised to stay off the sea while the system is near the coast.