2026 Set to Rank Among Hottest Years as El Niño Strengthens, WMO Says

2026 Set to Rank Among Hottest Years as El Niño Strengthens, WMO Says

Global temperatures remain well above pre-industrial levels, and 2026 is likely to finish among the four hottest years on record. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) shared this assessment in its latest State of the Climate Report.

During the first nine months of 2026, global temperatures averaged 1.47°C above the 1850–1900 baseline. This reading is higher than the full-year averages for both 2025 and 2023. As a result, 2026 sits just behind the record heat of 2024.

Strengthening El Niño conditions are expected to push temperatures higher in the final months of the year. The phenomenon has intensified since August. Forecasters now expect it to become one of the strongest on record by December. Therefore, the event could fuel elevated temperatures and extreme weather into 2027.

The WMO released the report on the opening day of the UN climate conference COP31 in Antalya, Türkiye. The findings highlight accelerating global warming and a growing imbalance in Earth’s energy system. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo noted that the past four years were the warmest in the 177-year observational record. Ocean temperatures have also reached record highs for the tenth consecutive year.

Saulo said the ongoing El Niño is forecast to be one of the strongest on record. She added that heat released from the ocean will continue to drive high temperatures and extreme weather into 2027.

According to the report, Earth’s energy imbalance has reached its highest level since systematic monitoring began. The planet is absorbing more energy from the Sun than it releases into space. Greenhouse gas emissions trap additional heat and disrupt the natural climate balance.

Carbon dioxide levels rose 53 percent, from about 278 parts per million in 1750 to 426.8 ppm in 2025. Methane concentrations increased 167 percent, from 729 parts per billion in 1750 to 1,948 ppb in 2025.

Oceans absorb around 90 percent of the excess heat from global warming. The WMO said 2026 is on course to become the tenth consecutive year of record ocean heat. This trend raises long-term concerns for marine ecosystems, weather patterns, and coastal communities.

The report also underlined the growing human and economic costs of climate change. Extreme weather events disrupt livelihoods, threaten food security, deepen poverty, and force displacement in several regions. In Europe, heatwaves, drought, and wildfires contributed to more than 30,000 excess deaths, according to preliminary estimates. In India, an estimated 146.5 million people faced extreme heat during a heatwave in April 2026.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned that the world has entered a new age of climate extremes. He said a strong El Niño is colliding with a planet already heated by human-caused climate change. Climate records continue to fall, and human costs continue to rise.

Guterres urged leaders to cut emissions faster, ensure a fair shift away from fossil fuels, and provide adequate financial support to the most vulnerable countries. He noted that nations contributing the least to global emissions often suffer some of the worst impacts.