Southwest Monsoon Set to Withdraw from West Rajasthan Around September 19

Southwest Monsoon Set to Withdraw from West Rajasthan Around September 19

The southwest monsoon is expected to start withdrawing from western Rajasthan around September 19. That is a few days later than the usual date of September 17. National rainfall remains about 15% below normal. More than 218 districts are facing dry conditions and stress on farm output.

Rainfall has been uneven across India. El Niño-linked patterns have left major farm regions short of moisture. South India is 28% below normal. The east and northeast are 25% below normal. The northwest is 10% short. Central India is 6% short.

Several farm states show larger gaps. Meghalaya is 59% below normal. Andhra Pradesh is 43% short. Punjab is 40% short. Bihar is 35% short. Karnataka is 29% short. With withdrawal beginning, those seasonal totals are unlikely to recover in full.

District-level stress is also high. Official contingency planning has flagged hundreds of districts with weak irrigation and large rainfall shortfalls. Among arid districts, 111 have irrigation coverage below 25% and are marked highly vulnerable. A recent weekly review listed 218 districts with acute drought signs. Those areas include parts of Bihar, Andhra Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Punjab.

Kharif crops face soil-moisture stress. Paddy, maize, cotton, and pulses are among the crops at risk.

Some rain is still likely before the monsoon leaves. Isolated showers are expected in places. Jammu and Kashmir may see rain. Scattered showers are possible in Punjab, Haryana, and Delhi. Isolated heavy rain may fall in Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Kerala. Those late showers are not expected to close the seasonal deficit.

After withdrawal, heat and low groundwater may increase the need for administrative relief. Officials are watching reservoir levels and crop acreage as the season ends.