The southwest monsoon has entered a weak phase across India. After weeks of uneven rainfall, El Nino now exerts stronger influence. Meteorologists warn that the country faces another dry spell in the coming days.
The monsoon currently lacks key atmospheric support. As a result, rainfall will stay subdued over large parts of central, western, and northwestern India for the next three to four days. Experts point to the growing impact of El Nino, which disrupts rain-bearing systems over the region.
Three vital weather drivers have temporarily vanished. These include the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation (BSISO), and Low Pressure Systems (LPS) over the Bay of Bengal. Normally, these features power the monsoon by generating clouds, organizing thunderstorms, and pushing moisture deep inland.
Without them, widespread rain becomes difficult to sustain. Only isolated areas, especially in Northeast India and along the Himalayan foothills, may see heavy showers. Meanwhile, much of the country remains dry.
El Nino adds further pressure to the situation. This periodic warming of the Pacific Ocean alters global weather patterns. In India, it often reduces moisture transport and weakens cloud formation across the subcontinent.
However, hope remains for the second half of July. Forecast models show encouraging signs. The Madden-Julian Oscillation, Rossby waves, and fresh Low Pressure Systems could become active over the Bay of Bengal during the last seven to ten days of the month.
If these systems strengthen as expected, they will bring renewed energy to the monsoon. New rain-bearing disturbances could then move across eastern, central, and northern India. Meteorologists believe this activity might partially counter El Nino’s drying effect and help restore normal rainfall before the month ends.
For now, the monsoon engine runs low on fuel. India must prepare for below-normal rainfall in many regions. Yet another pulse of moisture could revive the season later in July.