India’s southwest monsoon may end earlier than usual this year. Extended-range weather models show a sharp drop in rainfall after the first week or two of September.
The next four weeks look disappointing for most rain-dependent areas. East and Northeast India may still receive rain during the coming two weeks. Meanwhile, the rest of the country could see weaker monsoon activity as September continues.
Models point to a significant rainfall reduction after 5 to 10 September. The weakening is likely to last through the second half of the month. As a result, the monsoon could start withdrawing from extreme northwest India between 10 and 20 September.
This change would mark a clear shift. Active monsoon conditions would give way to a much drier pattern.
For now, the main rain-bearing systems remain over East and Northeast India. Those regions may continue to get moisture and showers. Elsewhere, rainfall is expected to turn patchy.
September normally supplies important late-season rain. Many areas rely on it to make up for earlier shortages. A long dry spell during the month could therefore lower the overall seasonal rainfall total.
The southwest monsoon usually begins its retreat from northwest India first. It then moves across the rest of the country. Withdrawal requires more than a few dry days. It needs a lasting drop in rain-bearing conditions and a change in the larger monsoon circulation.
Current model outlooks suggest this transition may start over extreme northwest India in mid-September.
However, weather models keep updating. A new low-pressure system or a shift in atmospheric patterns could still change the picture.
For now the signal remains consistent. India may have only a couple of weeks of useful monsoon rain left before September becomes much drier and the annual withdrawal begins.
Leave a Reply