Forecasters now expect Tropical Storm Karina to strengthen into a major hurricane. Some updated models also show paths that could bring effects toward California.
The National Hurricane Center said Karina already has sustained winds above 50 mph. It may reach hurricane strength as early as Friday night.
By Sunday morning, some forecasts show the storm becoming a Category 3 hurricane. That would mean winds above 111 mph.
Spaghetti models display a range of possible tracks. A few of those tracks point toward the California coast. Earlier, the American GFS model showed scenarios that included a possible landfall near San Diego or Los Angeles. The European ensemble was more doubtful on Thursday and kept the storm offshore.
Both model sets were updated on Friday. They now show a greater chance of paths toward Southern California and areas farther north.
A hurricane making landfall in California remains highly unusual. The National Weather Service notes that the state has no recorded hurricane landfall in its history. The last tropical storm to affect the state directly was in 1997.
Karina is currently less than 1,400 miles south of San Diego. It is moving northwest at about 13 mph, well off the Mexican coast.
Even at that distance, the National Hurricane Center warned that tropical-storm-force winds extend more than 200 miles from the centre. Officials also expect swells along the southwestern coast of Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula this weekend. Those swells could create dangerous rip currents.
Rip currents are strong, narrow flows that pull water away from the shore. They can quickly carry swimmers into deeper water and tire them as they try to fight the current.
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