Very Strong El Niño Builds in the Pacific as India Watches a Positive IOD

Very Strong El Niño Builds in the Pacific as India Watches a Positive IOD

A very strong El Niño is taking shape in the Pacific Ocean. The World Meteorological Organization said so on 3 September. The agency also said the event is now firmly established. It is likely to strengthen further in the coming months.

WMO forecasts give the event a nearly 100 percent chance of lasting through February 2027. Meanwhile, exceptionally warm waters in the tropical Pacific could shift rainfall and temperature patterns worldwide. Therefore, flood, drought, and extreme heat risks may rise in many regions.

Another ocean signal could change the picture for India. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole is also expected to develop during September to November. WMO forecasts a seasonal average IOD value of about 0.9°C. However, that does not mean the Indian Ocean will cancel El Niño.

WMO uses careful language. It says El Niño and a positive IOD can reinforce, weaken, or alter typical El Niño impacts in different regions. As a result, the two patterns may interact. The exact outcome will still depend on how both systems evolve.

The distinction matters for India. The country has already seen a weaker-than-normal monsoon in 2026. September rainfall has been running below normal. Concerns have also grown for cotton, soybean, maize, and rice.

El Niño forms when sea-surface temperatures turn unusually warm across parts of the central and eastern tropical Pacific. That warming then changes atmospheric circulation. Rainfall and temperature patterns can shift far beyond the Pacific.

WMO’s 31 July assessment said El Niño was strengthening steadily. It also forecast the seasonal average sea-surface temperature anomaly to exceed 2.9°C in key monitoring regions during August to October. Later, the 3 September outlook put the expected Niño 3.4 anomaly at about 3.6°C for September to November. The event is expected to peak around November and December.

The current event already ranks among the four strongest El Niño events since 1950, according to Reuters. WMO calls it “very strong.” It expects further intensification. Still, the agency has not officially labelled it a “super El Niño.”

India’s Ministry of Earth Sciences made a similar point on 30 July. It said neither WMO nor the India Meteorological Department uses an official “Super El Niño” category. Events are generally classed as weak, moderate, strong, or very strong. The ministry also said IMD had predicted El Niño during the 2026 southwest monsoon. Conditions were weak in June. They then strengthened to moderate levels in July. El Niño may reach the very strong category during October to December.

Timing still matters. El Niño often peaks late in the year, after India’s main southwest monsoon. Even so, the risk for India does not disappear. El Niño can affect rainfall and temperatures after the monsoon as well. Effects also vary from one event to another.

WMO said a strong El Niño can shift rainfall patterns. It can also raise the risks of floods, drought, and extreme heat. The September outlook further points to above-normal temperatures across almost all land areas.

The Indian Ocean Dipole is a separate climate pattern. It measures the difference in sea-surface temperatures between the western and eastern tropical Indian Ocean. A positive IOD generally means warmer-than-normal waters in the west and cooler-than-normal waters in the east.

WMO’s 31 July update said a positive IOD was expected to develop alongside the strengthening El Niño. The 3 September forecast then put the September–November seasonal average at 0.9°C. India’s weather authorities track both signals when they assess the monsoon.

A government release on 30 April said neutral IOD conditions were present at that time. Climate models nevertheless pointed to a possible positive IOD toward the end of the southwest monsoon. Sea-surface conditions in the Pacific and Indian oceans strongly influence the Indian monsoon.

Available forecasts still do not say a positive IOD will definitely blunt El Niño over India. WMO remains cautious. The two oceanic patterns can reinforce, weaken, or alter typical impacts. IMD has also said El Niño is only one factor. Intensity and effects over India depend on wider ocean-atmosphere conditions.

Latest rainfall data explain why caution is needed. India’s September rainfall was 35 percent below normal at one reported point, according to Reuters. June rainfall had also been 35 percent below normal. August remained deficient as well. A continued shortfall could make 2026 India’s weakest monsoon in nearly two decades.

September rain matters for standing crops. It also matters for soil moisture. Farmers then prepare winter crops such as wheat, rapeseed, and chickpeas.

The developing El Niño therefore adds uncertainty to India’s weather outlook. The positive IOD means the Pacific signal cannot be viewed alone. WMO’s latest assessment includes both patterns. It also says they can interact differently across regions.

That is the strongest factual basis for the key question. Can the Indian Ocean soften El Niño’s impact? It can change how El Niño affects different regions. There is still no official forecast saying it will fully offset the Pacific event over India.

The coming months will depend on how Pacific warming and the positive IOD evolve together. WMO expects El Niño to persist through February 2027. The positive IOD is expected during September to November.

A very strong El Niño can cause significant changes in rainfall and temperature. It can also raise the risks of extreme heat, drought, and floods. The positive IOD could modify that pattern. It cannot yet be treated as a shield.

Therefore, the Indian Ocean may change how El Niño affects India. It cannot yet be counted on to protect the country. That uncertainty makes the next few months important for agriculture, water management, and weather preparedness.