Low Soil Moisture and a Stronger El Niño Cloud India’s Rabi Season
Farmers are preparing for the winter cropping season, but India is entering a period of uncertainty. Depleted soil moisture and a strengthening El Niño raise the risk of delayed sowing, lower acreage, and weaker yields. The same conditions also pressure water supplies and food output.
The southwest monsoon ended with rainfall 12.6 percent below normal, the fourth-lowest since 2001. East and northeast India recorded a 25 percent deficit. South peninsular India was 24 percent below normal. As a result, several farming regions have limited moisture as the winter season approaches.
Deepak Pareek, founder of HnyB Tech-Incubations, said the 2026 monsoon closed about 13 percent below the long-period average and 21 percent below last year. He said large tracts now have inadequate soil moisture. Combined with a dry October under a strengthening El Niño, that pattern spells serious trouble for rabi sowing and crop prospects.
El Niño is the periodic warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific, and it can disrupt global weather. Several global models, and the India Meteorological Department in its latest forecast, indicate the phenomenon is strengthening. It is expected to become very strong toward November, when most of India sows rabi crops.
Rabi crops are planted after the southwest monsoon recedes, so stored monsoon moisture is crucial. A Crisil Economics assessment said soil moisture on August 20 was below the decadal average in Karnataka, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, northern Jharkhand, Bihar, Punjab, western Gujarat, and parts of the northeast. IMD district data showed 32 percent of districts deficient in September and another 16 percent largely deficient.
Heat is adding to the stress. India’s average maximum temperature in September was 32.05°C, the highest for the month since 1901. The mean temperature of 27.72°C was the fifth-highest. The weather bureau also expects above-normal maximum and minimum temperatures across most of the country in October. Pareek said residual moisture is under strain in key rainfed belts of central, southern, and eastern and northeastern India. Rainfed farmers have limited scope to offset a dry spell with irrigation.
The rabi season accounts for roughly half of India’s foodgrain production. Wheat is about 70 percent of rabi output, while rice, coarse cereals, and pulses contribute roughly 10 percent each, according to Crisil. More than 60 percent of India’s pulses, largely gram, come from rabi, and nearly 70 percent of jowar is grown in the season. Wheat has a buffer: more than 95 percent of its acreage is irrigated, compared with about 52 percent for gram and 25 percent for jowar. Gram in Rajasthan and jowar in Karnataka and Maharashtra are therefore more exposed.
The impact will not be uniform. Irrigated farmers may keep sowing with groundwater and canals. Rainfed farmers may delay planting, cut acreage, or shift crops, Crisil noted.
Reservoirs, the backup for rabi sowing, are already under pressure. As of October 1, storage in 178 major reservoirs was 1 percent below the long-period average and more than 20 percent lower than a year earlier. Former agriculture secretary Devesh Choudhary said levels have held up partly because last year’s surplus rain supported storage. He said that cushion is weaker in several states, especially in the south, where rabi crops will suffer.
The southern region holds 27.46 billion cubic metres, or 49.2 percent of live capacity, against 87.8 percent a year ago. Northern storage is at 60.5 percent, compared with 91 percent last year. Western reservoirs are at 84 percent against 97.1 percent. Central storage stands at 88 percent, down from 92.7 percent. Eastern storage is at 82.7 percent, compared with 79 percent last year. Levels are especially low in Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Karnataka.
Maharashtra is the country’s largest producer of gram and jowar. Rajasthan is a major producer of both gram and mustard. Karnataka is the second-largest jowar producer, and Andhra Pradesh and Telangana grow maize and pulses in rabi. With less irrigation water, farmers in these states may delay or reduce sowing. Crops that are planted are likely to face higher irrigation costs and lower productivity, Choudhary said. He added that a good crop will also depend on western disturbances bringing winter rain and lower temperatures in the north.
Drought conditions, from abnormally dry to more severe categories, covered 47.4 percent of the country’s area. States with the largest share under any drought category included Goa at 100 percent, Arunachal Pradesh at 87.8 percent, Assam at 84.9 percent, Mizoram at 83.8 percent, Maharashtra at 82.4 percent, and Sikkim at 81.8 percent. Regionally, drought covered about 78 percent of the West, 74 percent of the Northeast, 52 percent of the South, 42 percent of the Northwest, 40 percent of the North, 32 percent of the East, and 29 percent of Central India.
The IMD expects October rainfall below 85 percent of the long-period average for India as a whole, and below-normal rain over most of the country from October to December. A prolonged dry spell could make it harder for rainfed farmers to establish crops. Higher temperatures would cut soil moisture further, and weak winter rain could later hurt growth and productivity.
The government is already wary. At a two-day rabi conference in Delhi this week, agriculture secretary Atish Chandra said the coming season is likely to be challenging for rainfed areas because of El Niño, and that foodgrain production could be affected. Agriculture minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan said Maharashtra, Karnataka, Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh need crop plans based on water and soil moisture, with separate strategies for rainfed and irrigated areas. He also said delayed sowing could affect germination and productivity, so advance preparation is essential.
The government has asked states and districts to assess water and soil moisture first, then choose crops. In water-stressed areas, it has called for less water-intensive crops such as pulses and oilseeds rather than wheat, which could run short of irrigation later. Chouhan said the Centre is also preparing state-specific rabi plans, including drought-resistant strategies for Maharashtra and Karnataka. States with better water availability, such as Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, and West Bengal, may be asked to pursue more intensive production.
Disclaimer: This article only summarises publicly reported weather and agriculture assessments. It is not an official forecast or farming advice. Conditions can change by district. Readers should check the latest IMD bulletin and state agriculture guidance before they act.
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