Forecasters Warn El Niño Is Entering Record Territory

Forecasters Warn El Niño Is Entering Record Territory

Weather agencies and researchers are warning that the current El Niño is strengthening beyond the range of recent events. The United Nations weather body has said this episode could rank among the strongest since at least 1950. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) also said the pattern will add to the effects of human-driven climate change. As the Pacific releases stored heat, large parts of the planet are expected to run warmer than usual.

Specialists tracking ocean data say the event is still near peak strength heading into winter, with unusual warmth spread across most of the globe. One widely shared reading puts the Niño 3.4 region, a key Pacific monitoring zone, at about 3.4 degrees Celsius above normal. That level is higher than any previous El Niño in the modern record, according to researchers citing those measurements. Some forecasters have described the episode as an extreme, or “super,” El Niño. They also agree with the WMO view that the pattern is likely to last through February 2027.

In its outlook, the WMO said there is a very high chance of above-average sea surface temperatures over large areas in the final months of 2026. In the central and eastern tropical Pacific, the core of the El Niño region, temperatures from October to December are forecast to reach about 3.7 degrees Celsius (6.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above normal. If that holds, it would be a record for the season.

El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, a natural cycle that shifts weather worldwide. It usually raises global temperatures and rearranges rainfall, bringing drought to some regions and heavy rain to others. Episodes typically return every two to seven years.

The human impact could be severe. Researchers at the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab estimated last month that this year’s strong El Niño could be linked to as many as 451,000 excess deaths worldwide between June and February 2027. Those figures are projections, not confirmed counts, and they depend on how heat, storms, and crop losses unfold.

Disclaimer: This article is a general summary of public forecasts and research estimates. Temperature anomalies and death projections are as reported by agencies and studies, and they may be revised. Individual commentator names have been omitted. This is not an official warning for any specific location.