India Records Weakest Monsoon in Over a Decade as El Niño Drives Drought Conditions

India Records Weakest Monsoon in Over a Decade as El Niño Drives Drought Conditions

India faced its weakest monsoon in nearly two decades this year. Several states reported drought conditions. The southwest monsoon ended 13% below the long-period average as the El Niño impact continued to grow. As a result, rainfall shortfalls affected crops, water levels, and agricultural planning across multiple regions.

El Niño and Global Risks

El Niño can bring drought to some regions and severe flooding to others. In some cases, both occur. These extremes damage crops, livestock, and infrastructure. Consequently, food production falls and prices rise. Food becomes less affordable, especially for smallholder farmers and pastoralists who rely on rainfall. When combined with existing pressures such as conflict, these climate shocks can quickly increase hunger, the World Food Program warned in a recent analysis. According to the World Meteorological Organization, El Niño conditions are expected to strengthen through 2026 and continue into 2027. The ongoing super El Niño may become the strongest on record since 1950. Meteorologist Ben Noll also noted that around 3 billion people worldwide could experience unusually high temperatures till the end of this year. He added that the record-breaking El Niño would peak higher because of the planet’s warming trend, with a global warming boost of around 0.65°C.

Monsoon Performance and Regional Impact

India recorded a 13% monsoon rainfall deficit. Rainfall stayed below normal in some regions, including South India and the northeastern states. However, central and northwest India received rainfall within the normal range, IMD scientist Shashikant said last week. Data from the weather department shows rainfall over the country between June and September reached 87% of its long-period average in 2026. Summer monsoon rainfall totalled 759.4 mm — the fourth lowest since 2001 and the 13th lowest since 1901. Therefore, the season ranks among the weakest in recent decades.

Adjusted Food Production Targets

The central government lowered its food production target in late September. It aimed to avoid water-intensive crops in areas that received low rainfall. Union Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan announced that crops such as pulses and oilseeds would be cultivated in such regions. Against the target of 362.60 million tonnes, production reached 376.56 million tonnes during 2025-26. In view of the El Niño situation, the production target has been fixed at 373.93 million tonnes for 2026-27, which includes a Rabi target of 177.72 million tonnes. The Agriculture Minister assured that there was no shortage of fertilisers for the ensuing Rabi season. There had reportedly been a 1% decrease in the area sown, with paddy seeing the biggest dip. Meanwhile, the area under pulses, oilseeds, and coarse cereals increased.

Drought Declarations Across States

Karnataka became the first state to declare drought conditions. It announced on August 27 that 101 taluks had been affected for the Kharif season. The tally hit 217 out of 240 taluks by October 2 as a Central government team visited to assess the damage. Deputy Chief Minister G Parameshwara said farmers faced acute drought, drinking water problems, and crop failure. Nearly Rs 46,000 crore of crop loss was estimated. Several other states also declared drought conditions. Maharashtra declared drought in 265 of its 358 talukas on September 25. Andhra Pradesh joined on October 2, declaring 388 mandals across 21 out of 28 districts as drought-affected. Telangana and Rajasthan governments are also assessing drought-hit areas.

Government Drought-Proofing Measures

The Indian government has run several schemes over the years for drought proofing, water conservation, and agricultural resilience. The VB-G RAM G Act replaced the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme earlier this year. A Central share of Rs 95,692.31 crore has been provided for the Viksit Bharat-Guarantee for Rozgar and Ajeevika Mission (Gramin) for FY27. It supports water security measures such as farm ponds, check dams, and tree plantations. Millions of water-conservation assets were also created under MGNREGA. More than 68,000 reservoirs have been constructed or rejuvenated under Mission Amrit Sarovar. Around 900,000 water-harvesting structures were created or rejuvenated under watershed programmes over the past 12 years. Under Jal Sanchay Jan Bhagidari, at least one million groundwater recharge and over 2.7 million artificial recharge structures have been created. The second phase launched in June 2025 has already exceeded targets.

Ongoing Water Stress

According to the India Drought Monitor, around 52.5% of the country was under dry or drought conditions by mid-September. India extracts around 247 billion cubic metres of groundwater every year, making it the world’s largest consumer. Agriculture accounts for up to 90% of all water used in India. Rice, wheat, and sugarcane take nearly 80% of irrigation water. The El Niño conditions prevalent throughout 2026 have worsened the water stress. As a result, the government has stepped in with adjusted targets and continued support measures. Overall, the weak monsoon highlights structural vulnerabilities that require sustained focus on water management and crop diversification.