Northeast Monsoon Arrives Early Over Southern Peninsular India
The India Meteorological Department declared the onset of the northeast monsoon over southern peninsular India on Thursday. The arrival came earlier than the normal date of around October 20. Heightened rainfall is expected along with gusty winds, thunder, and lightning. These conditions will affect Kerala, coastal and southern Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Mahe, Karaikal, and the coastal belt of Andhra Pradesh through October 18.
The northeast monsoon is also known as the winter monsoon. It typically lasts from October to December. It influences Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, Yanam, Rayalaseema, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, Mahe, and south interior Karnataka. Tamil Nadu receives nearly half of its annual rainfall during this season.
Earlier this month the Met department released its northeast monsoon forecast. It predicted normal rainfall at 88 percent of the long-period average of 334.1 mm based on 1971-2020 data. A cyclonic circulation currently prevails over southern Tamil Nadu. It will further contribute to intense rainfall in the region.
Thursday also marked the complete withdrawal of the southwest monsoon. This year’s seasonal rainfall ended 13 percent below normal. Intensifying El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean primarily drove the deficit. As a result, 2026 became the fourth driest monsoon since 2001. The early northeast monsoon onset now shifts attention to rainfall patterns across southern India in the coming weeks.
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