India Faces Rainfall Deficit in Second Half of Monsoon Season
India is likely to see a rainfall shortfall in the second half of the monsoon season. August and September could bring challenges for kharif crop sowing.
So far, the first half of the season from June to July has recorded a 13 percent deficit against the long-period average. This shortfall has already cut kharif crop planting by 5 percent.
A moderate El Niño continues in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Experts project it will strengthen later in the monsoon. As a result, the India Meteorological Department predicts below-normal rainfall for August and September. The agency defines below-normal as less than 94 percent of the long-period average.
Higher daytime and nighttime temperatures are expected across much of the country. The IMD estimates total rainfall for August and September at 422.8 millimeters. Officials classify this amount as below normal.
El Niño involves warmer waters in the eastern Pacific. This pattern often weakens the monsoon over India.
In addition, August itself is forecast to bring less rain than usual. Long-term records show a declining trend in August rainfall over recent decades.
According to the IMD, rainfall in August 2026 will likely stay below normal in many regions. Exceptions include parts of eastern Peninsular India, some areas of northwest and central India, and isolated pockets in the east and northeast.
Lower rainfall in August should push both day and night temperatures higher. Sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific remain above normal because of El Niño.
Earlier in the season, July delivered normal rainfall. The month finished 1 percent above the long-period average, which ran counter to the IMD’s earlier forecast. Strong rains during three weeks in July narrowed the national deficit. The shortfall dropped from 35.4 percent at the end of June to 13 percent by the end of July.
However, the July rains were uneven. About 53 percent of districts received normal to above-normal amounts. Meanwhile, 46 percent of districts saw deficit or large-deficit rainfall.
East and Northeast India recorded their sixth-lowest July rainfall since 1901. The Southern Peninsula posted its tenth-lowest total for the month in the same period. These figures point to a substantially weaker monsoon in those regions.
Because of the reduced rainfall, July ranked as the second-warmest on record for the Southern Peninsula since 1901. Nights there were the warmest ever recorded for the month. East and Northeast India also experienced their warmest July on record.